$Freeroll NLHE MTT Turbo: All In or Fold Spot?

[xOneCoolHandx]

Ok, so short stacked in the daily USA players freeroll on Replay Poker. Sitting with approx 10 BBs in the BB with AQs. Folds around to the Button, a usually TAG player but will get frisky on occasion. BU has me covered slightly and makes a large raise for about about 2/3rds of my stack.

Obviously I can't call in this spot and if I jam, he is pot committed with only slightly more than 1/3 of his original stack left. So, do you think that this is a jam or fold spot and why?

I am going to post my thoughts on this after reading some of yours so that I don't sway any opinions.

 

[IADaveMark]

Anyone opening a pot on the button is going to be looser than normal. This is also likely because he is also short-stacked and would just love to pull down the blinds and be done with it. From his perspective, he's up against 2 random hands. Very likely he is doing this with any A and any pair (as is standard), but possibly also with mid-level Kx and plenty of connected paint. Almost all of those you are ahead of.

Shove.

 

[300HPGOD]

You mention that button has you covered slightly (you have 10 BBs) and they bet for about 2/3rds your stack which translates to 6-7 BBs. That means villain is opening for half THEIR stack which to me usually signals a weaker hand that has strength but really does not want to see a flop. On top of all this, with AQ suited and 10 BBs it would take at least a raise and a cold 3 bet for me to consider folding pre flop. There would not be any one action that would make me not jam that hand strength with this stack size (Satellites not be included). My guess is button has 55-88 or has AJ-A9. I would think we are behind some and ahead of some and with 10 BBs I am ready to take a chance to double up. This is a clear jam imo. Villain will rarely if ever have QQ+ since why would they be begging for folds with those hands unless they are leveling which I guess is always possible but doubt it. Even if villain were to have JJ here I am not upset sitting on 10 BBs.

 

[xOneCoolHandx]

Anyone opening a pot on the button is going to be looser than normal. This is also likely because he is also short-stacked and would just love to pull down the blinds and be done with it. From his perspective, he's up against 2 random hands. Very likely he is doing this with any A and any pair (as is standard), but possibly also with mid-level Kx and plenty of connected paint. Almost all of those you are ahead of.

Shove.

You mention that button has you covered slightly (you have 10 BBs) and they bet for about 2/3rds your stack which translates to 6-7 BBs. That means villain is opening for half THEIR stack which to me usually signals a weaker hand that has strength but really does not want to see a flop. On top of all this, with AQ suited and 10 BBs it would take at least a raise and a cold 3 bet for me to consider folding pre flop. There would not be any one action that would make me not jam that hand strength with this stack size (Satellites not be included). My guess is button has 55-88 or has AJ-A9. I would think we are behind some and ahead of some and with 10 BBs I am ready to take a chance to double up. This is a clear jam imo. Villain will rarely if ever have QQ+ since why would they be begging for folds with those hands unless they are leveling which I guess is always possible but doubt it. Even if villain were to have JJ here I am not upset sitting on 10 BBs.

I agree with both of you and yes, I 3-bet jammed knowing that he was too pot committed to fold. Turns out he had KK and I lost, but I still feel it was the right play.

 

[fundiver199]

When he commit himself, its just the same as, if he had moved all-in, and there is no reason to assign him a different range. Sometimes people make these "non all-in all-ins", because they hope to induce a folding mistake on the flop, if someone just call. So essentially you are BB and face a BTN jam for 10BB effective. That situation is a call with almost any AX hand or at least those, that will dominate some of his weak kickers, since he is supposed to be jamming almost any AX, any pair and any broadway. Maybe we can make a tight fold with something as bad as A7, but AQs is waaaay to high in our range, so we should beat him into the pot.

 

[fundiver199]

Turns out he had KK and I lost, but I still feel it was the right play.

Sometimes we will run into the top of our opponents range, but that does not mean, this is their entire range, or that we should have folded. There will also be situations, where for instance we have AQ on Q72 rainbow in a low SPR pot, we C-bet, they jam, we call, and it turns out we are against QQ and drawing almost dead. Its called cooler for a reason, and coolers dont matter, because we will cooler other players just as often, as they cooler us.

 

[xOneCoolHandx]

When he commit himself, its just the same as, if he had moved all-in, and there is no reason to assign him a different range. Sometimes people make these "non all-in all-ins", because they hope to induce a folding mistake on the flop, if someone just call. So essentially you are BB and face a BTN jam for 10BB effective. That situation is a call with almost any AX hand or at least those, that will dominate some of his weak kickers, since he is supposed to be jamming almost any AX, any pair and any broadway. Maybe we can make a tight fold with something as bad as A7, but AQs is waaaay to high in our range, so we should beat him into the pot.

Sometimes we will run into the top of our opponents range, but that does not mean, this is their entire range, or that we should have folded. There will also be situations, where for instance we have AQ on Q72 rainbow in a low SPR pot, we C-bet, they jam, we call, and it turns out we are against QQ and drawing almost dead. Its called cooler for a reason, and coolers dont matter, because we will cooler other players just as often, as they cooler us.

Yes, I agree with both of your analysis. My one thought is that this player in particular ONLY makes large raises when he is really strong. He will min raise with weaker hands but his strongest hands, he makes BIG preflop bets. That's why I knew he was strong. But, still he could be doing it with 99+. KQ, AT+ and an assortment of suited aces. So, I felt this was a mandatory jam.

 

[puzzlefish]

Yes, I agree with both of your analysis. My one thought is that this player in particular ONLY makes large raises when he is really strong. He will min raise with weaker hands but his strongest hands, he makes BIG preflop bets. That's why I knew he was strong. But, still he could be doing it with 99+. KQ, AT+ and an assortment of suited aces. So, I felt this was a mandatory jam.

It's a jam, unless you see a clear tell in his betting as to when he is being frisky versus having a hand. Have you seen him do that kind of raise with weaker hands? If yes, there's nothing to talk about here and it is a jam.

 

[Tigroslav]

It's an easy shove over a button open with only 10 BB's stack.