Awesome feedback & input
Deviating from your standard raise sizing is strange and foolish - it often reveals a little insight into hand strength - ie: pairs 77-JJ affraid of being outflopped and Ax, Kx, or Qx holdings that are just looking to take down a pot pre -- that being said, the larger opening size SHOULD effectively condense your opponents calling ranges and almost force them to play perfect - this is still a freeroll tho some im sure that standard game theory only applies on some level here.
Anyhow, with that said and now getting two callers - we are in the middle multiway and in such a scenario players should be bluffing almost NEVER - and now you have to go to the flop in an already bloated pot, stack to pot ratios get really weird really fast and we are going to miss the flop so often and be forced to play passively and fold such a vast majority of the time- that we are just lighting that extra 1.2 BB or so on fire.
Basically the BB gets to pull the "stop and go" play and open jam ANY flop that favors their range or that they actually connect with and puts you in a suuuper gross spot with an opponent yet to act behind you. Ranging LAG players is one thing and tough enough to do in itself - what did the tight guy flat behind us would be what concerns me more than the a spazzy BB.
Another factor here is on the stone money bubble game theory has the middling and bottom field runners tightening up until the bubble is burst - while the top players are allowed to widen their range and exploit this adjustment getting players to overfold during this time period -- the bottom 3 stacks or so (depending how close their stack sizes are) should be picking their spots looking to hang on long enough to make the $$ as well. So - with this is mind...if Zorba knows all of this, and is playing tighter himself AND is condensing his range further due to your large opening size - I would say he is flatting you with JJ+, AQ+, and AJs+ and that is a pretty narrow range for you to be up against. Just incase you are curious - YES, he is also supposed to be flatting AA and KK here hoping to induce a squeeze shove from one of the smaller stacks - so in a nutshell, he is still largely uncapped.
So in summary - ranges here SHOULD be very snug from both villans even tho your BB is labeled a possible spaz - we will be seeing a flop, multi way and we are stuck in the middle. Horrible situation to be in, and we bloated the pot unnecessarily - we are going to have to play post flop VERY cautiously and end up folding quite a bit - end result being, we opened too large and lit those chips on fire for no reason. Just raise normally sizing here, the same thing happens, you play it the same, and you lose less. Easy peezy
Great feedback Jon, as always.
So - I'm not going to argure the point about opening a larger size than normal because I 100% agree with you in every aspect.
My simple logic/assumption here was - this hand will not go post flop, nobody can call this raise pre - they either have to jam or fold being on the stone bubble. I was willing to go all in pre with anyone at the table except Zorba.
To my unbelieveable surprise - I get two callers!! Talk about a plan backfiring! lol
One other element here - I'm saying with this bet - hoping people are paying attention - I will call any shove - I WANT the pot bloated - becasue I'm confident in my hand - and my post flop ability versus all the opponents on this table.
Regarding the big blind - I'm not going to disparage the way skalicur plays. He is definitely a loose player. That is his style - and I REALLY enjoy playing with this player type - you know why, and although I would never be caught playing the way he does, it works for him - and I would not call him a spaz - he is loose obviously - calling this preflop bet with only 8bb.
He has a push fold stack, period, calling a bet that was anything other than a limp or min-raise - in my opinion is a very bad mistake.
Since I was expecting this hand not to go to the flop, I have no doubt Zorba has a pocket pair, AQ+. I do not remember ever seeing a hand where Zorba got out of line, I can not remember ever seeing Zorba run a
bluff - ever, he opens a tight range, and I expect his calling range here to be tight.
Just a little more insight on the table dynamics, Zorba was the latest addition to the table. He has been here for approximately one orbit. Every other player has been with me on this table for 30 minutes or more - so they have witnessed the hands I have won, I have shown down, AA KK set, a boat and the nut flush - with the current players, all hands opened from early position. I figured this image was established with the entire table - including skalicur, however it is quite obvious skalicur is level 1 and is only paying attention to the cards he has.
As you stated Jon - I was exploiting the fact this is the stone bubble, and I was willing to play the hand preflop all in with any player other than Zorba. I never expected this hand to go to the flop - so lesson here for me is - keep my standard open - even when attempting to openly tell players - they either have to fold or shove, because I am opening larger and I am willing to play for stacks.
Some players just dont listen!!
We have both played in a ton of these over the last year or so. I only play them weekends now at most but still know most of the villains just as you do. I dont think Zorba is as tight aggressive as you make him as I would classify him more as middle aggressive (vpips 23% in the 445 hands I have on him and 3 bets 12.15%) so I know that he 3 bets a lot. I dont know if you said or not that he 3 bet you but I would expect him to here even with a little lighter range than you would think even though we are on the bubble. The BB has 9 BBs and should be folding most here with the shorter stacks at the table but if they get a whiff of anything (depending on what Zorba did pre) they will probably just be going with it or call it and pray.
Your range should be tight here since opening that large (I dont think you have to there as on the bubble all will play very tight in this tournament and many of them have jam stacks that you might be priced in to call at 3.5x) you will have to call off some jams and should be prepared for that. Will the players notice your larger size than normal? Thats a maybe but I still think 2.2-2.5x is better here. People should be able to see that UTG at this stage where others are push folding that you should be tight and strong here. My guess with your past is that you opened here with the expectation to get it in against anyone's jam.
Thanks for your reply HP. Solid view points. OK - stop beating me up about the larger open size - see my response to Jon above. You are right - as always - and I'm dumb. LOL
You nailed it percisely - I'm willing to play all in pre - and was pretty much 100% assuming the players here would recognize that - by my large open. I definitely miscalculated other players noticing I was opening 1x larger than my standard open.
This is something I pay particular attention to - bet sizing
tells are one of the most reliable tells we have with
online poker.
Regarding the bb - skalicur - he has a push fold stack - vs this open. If I were in his position - there is no way I'm calling this bet - I am either shoving pre - or folding pre. In my opinion he misplayed this hand - very badly, however this is his style, I assume he was looking to hit one pair and jam. Would I have called this jam with Zorba left to act? Lets wait and see how the hand unfolds.
Regarding Zorba. I will give you the point he is middle aggressive, however 12% 3bet, to me, comparing him to general population of players at the micro level here on ACR, 12% is only average, so I classify him as TAG. You might be right though, comparing his stats to exclusively the Cards Chat ACR players. Great point.
Being second in chips and one from ITM, I am not opening much UTG. I probably fold anything short of AK and QQ+. It is way easier to bully the smaller stacks while in position, than to go head to head with the chip leader and a LAG.
3.5X is too much for this late in the game. You are mathematically forced to call if almost anyone shoves on you.
I would have raised a small number of hands 2X. That gives me the choice to call/fold any shoves, and I risk fewer chips while out of position.
Thanks dude. You have a very solid opening range UTG being 2nd in chips on the money bubble. Personally I'm opening my full range here on the money bubble. I'm not NORMALLY opening 3.5x my full range here on the money bubble being 2nd in chips, but I will open nearly every hand 2nd in chips - very often - with my standard open - my full range.
I think you may have miss-understood - if you are thinking Zorba is the chip leader. He is not, I have him covered. And you are correct I was willing to call any players preflop shove except Zorba, because I only had him covered by 3? bb and my perception of him is he is as TAG as I am, although I would argue I'm not mathematically obligated to call anyones shove ever - I don't use math for that purpose.
To be mathematically obligated - although I don't use that criteria as a open then call/fold to a shove, I believe a player would be pot committed if the resulting shove is something like 50% or less than the openers entire stack. IDK - like I said - I don't use math for that situation.
"I would have raised a small number of hands 2X. That gives me the choice to call/fold any shoves, and I risk fewer chips while out of position."
This is a great point. However you also give a great price for anyone with any sort of playable hand to call and see a flop. So opening so small is a great way to lose a hand you should have won by eleminating - marginal playable hands preflop.
Of course this is one of those chicken and egg points of this game right.
We raise bigger to "hopefully" thin the field. But we bloat the pot - and if the flop is not favorable - we paid more than we should have - and we still lose a hand.
On the flip side - we open a standard size - we give our opponents a great price to play the hand with us. Sometimes we want this - but usually not. We do not want to be up against more than 2 opponents.
And on the last side - sometimes we want to charge players preflop to come along, we have a very strong hand - and if the opponents want to play this hand against us - they are going to have to PAY more to see the flop. We don't care if they call raise or fold - we are in control!! Grrr!!
Lastly - we are only ever out of position if a player decided to pay the larger price we have set to see a flop. I never expected to get 2 callers to this larger open size on the money bubble, but this is poker right.
Unexpected things happen ALL the time.
