$Freeroll NLHE: KJos in MP2 - should I be in this hand at all?

[NoWuckingFurries]

$Freeroll NL HE: KJos in MP2 - should I be in this hand at all?

So we're quite a long way into the UK Freeroll at Full Tilt, 1370 people started and there are only 170 of us left, but only the top 27 places pay. The three big stacks at the table are playing quite loosely, and often turn over hands that you probably wouldn't see turned over in a CC freeroll. I decided to play KJos (yeah, feel free to shout at me! ) and this is how the hand developed.

Full Tilt, 120/240 blinds, 25 ante NL Hold'em Tourney, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

cigar57: 7,565 (31.5 bb)
beemaz3251: 2,540 (10.6 bb)
reason9: 19,771 (82.4 bb)
NoWuckinFurries: 6,555 (27.3 bb)
zupertramp: 23,767 (99 bb)
dianna30: 770 (3.2 bb)
bazzabear: 22,450 (93.5 bb)
matroskin: 8,930 (37.2 bb)
edwardmorris57: 180 (0.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: NoWuckinFurries is MP2 with J

K

2 folds, beemaz3251 calls 240, reason9 folds, NoWuckinFurries calls 240, 2 folds, bazzabear completes, matroskin checks

Flop: (1,185) 2

9

T

(4 players)
bazzabear bets 240, matroskin folds, beemaz3251 calls 240, NoWuckinFurries calls 240

Turn: (1,905) 7

(3 players)
bazzabear bets 240, beemaz3251 calls 240

Please bear in mind that beemaz and bazzabear have been playing most hands, hoping to hit something. What do I do next :questionm

 

[Jillychemung]

You call here and hope to hit your Q as you are getting almost 10-1 on your money.

If you are going to play KJo here please raise it preflop.

 

[PattyR]

hmmm, a 240 bet into that pot is a fairly weak bet i would say, i would have raised him and bet the pot, probably could have gotten him to fold.

obviously though had he called your semi bluff and the river was not a Q, let him do the betting, unless he checks, than its possible he still has you beat so i dunno, maybe shove all in LOL.

but if you dont raise him after the flop you should definately at least call him, chances are you would at least hit a J Q or K on the river hopefully and if you did all three could be scare cards for your opponent. did you end up calling or folding or what ended up happening with this hand?

 

[poloporasa]

Here a little theory:
You got ten outs (3xJ 4xQ 3xK) to improve your hand on the river.

That meens that you will not hit the river in 4:1 cases (really its 3,6:1).
With the 1 time you hit you need to finance the 4 times you do not hit (in consideration of the longterm).

So the pot is 2625 including your call. Thats what you would get in the 1 case you hit the river. After subtracting what you need to invest to see the river (5x240=1200) we have a positive number. So a call is profitabel in this situation.


Anyways, after a call you will still have 24BB left. And do not forget that you already put two bb in the middel, so why not investing the third bb if your stack allows it?!

BTW, i would probably have folded this one preflop from that position. But it is fine as well to play speculative hands, such as this one, with your stack.

 

[poloporasa]

Forgot to mention,that even if we not think of the Jacks as helpful cards, because they leave a gutshot draw on the board, it would still be profitabel to call 240 here.

And if I put myself in this situation I would call.

 

[NoWuckingFurries]

Here a little theory:

I really like being quoted theory atm, because I'm at a stage where I am probably ready to absorb some of that now. Thanks for the input so far, peeps, very helpful. So onto the next question!

Full Tilt, 120/240 blinds, 25 ante NL Hold'em Tourney, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

cigar57: 7,565 (31.5 bb)
beemaz3251: 2,540 (10.6 bb)
reason9: 19,771 (82.4 bb)
NoWuckinFurries: 6,555 (27.3 bb)
zupertramp: 23,767 (99 bb)
dianna30: 770 (3.2 bb)
bazzabear: 22,450 (93.5 bb)
matroskin: 8,930 (37.2 bb)
edwardmorris57: 180 (0.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: NoWuckinFurries is MP2 with J

K

2 folds, beemaz3251 calls 240, reason9 folds, NoWuckinFurries calls 240, 2 folds, bazzabear completes, matroskin checks

Flop: (1,185) 2

9

T

(4 players)
bazzabear bets 240, matroskin folds, beemaz3251 calls 240, NoWuckinFurries calls 240

Turn: (1,905) 7

(3 players)
bazzabear bets 240, beemaz3251 calls 240, NoWuckinFurries calls 240

River: (2,625) 8

(3 players)
bazzabear bets 240, beemaz3251 folds, NoWuckinFurries raises to 1,680, bazzabear raises to 21,705 and is all-in

My tournament life is on the line here - so what next :questionm

 

[dgreenwald]

call and split the pot... most likely situation

 

[2_Gearzzz]

Yea u gotta call. You were hoping to hit your straight and since u got there u gotta call. if you ever think about folding here than dont call the turn bet at all.

 

[Tublecain]

I'm definitely not an expert, but I would say that given the loose calling pattern of your villains here, a raise with KJo would be in order from Preflop, or just fold it. Of course late position would be a much better place to raise from, but on a loose table KJo isn't a terrible hand to try and punish those limpers with from MP.

I would go for a solid 3bet given that that's probably what you would at least expect to invest if you continue with the hand (and indeed were set to invest before you raised and then got re raised all-in). Better to have them fold with a speculative hand, than to be stuck in the situation you were in. If they raise your bet preflop its an easy fold, and you simply lost 3 bets from a still healthy stack, instead of being in the very uncomfortable situation of having to make a (tournament) life or death choice.

That said, once you are in the position you were in by the river, I would agree with 2_Gearzzz. I want to explain why though. An 8 can only possibly have given your opponent three things (correct me if I'm wrong): an 7-J straight like yours, a 6-10 straight (good news for you), or in the worst case scenario the nuts with a 8-Q straight (which means he's holding JQ). So you're chances are essentially 1:3 all around to either split, win big, or lose your stack. Basically your chances of not losing are, all else being equal, 2:3.

If it were me, I would try to remember how he's played hands like JQ before? Has he been aggressive preflop, or did he limp like this time? If he's been aggressive in the past, then maybe you're good to call. Of course if you even slightly seem to recall this guy limping with JQ strength hands before, or limp-raising the nuts before, I would fold.

If you can't remember or simply haven't seem him play that many hands, I have often gone by the motto 'when in doubt, fold'. On the other hand you're about 1:3 each way, so technically all else being equal, you're 2:3 to at least break even. My math may be off, but it seems you'd be calling about 3:1 on your money so at this point I guess mathematically you're good to call.

Hope that helps!

 

[NoWuckingFurries]

Hope that helps!

Nice post - thanks!

 

[Tublecain]

Glad you found it useful!