Drawing to the nuts?

[DaveE]

pokerstars Game #14180521484: Tournament #71916968, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2007/12/29 - 14:16:37 (ET)
Table '71916968 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: dakota-xx (4270 in chips)
Seat 3: killer3333 (4730 in chips)
dakota-xx: posts small blind 75
killer3333: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to killer3333 [2h 8d]
dakota-xx: calls 75
killer3333: checks
*** FLOP *** [8h 7s 8s]
killer3333: checks
dakota-xx: checks
*** TURN *** [8h 7s 8s] [9d]
killer3333: bets 450
dakota-xx: raises 1350 to 1800

I'm pretty sure she's made a straight here which would give me 10 outs to the nuts. The potodds aren't there but if I hit I likely win the tourney, if I miss I'm going to drop the hand, leaving me with a workable stack of around 2800.

Do you make this call based solely on the posibility of stacking?

 

[switch0723]

The only way you can hit the nuts is if the final 8 comes so thats only 2% chance. I fold since daks either has straight as you said, or she may have flopped a fh that domiantes you, fold and find a better spot, dont go broke in an unraised pot holding 8,2

 

[altruist]

PokerStars Game #14180521484: Tournament #71916968, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2007/12/29 - 14:16:37 (ET)
Table '71916968 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: dakota-xx (4270 in chips)
Seat 3: killer3333 (4730 in chips)
dakota-xx: posts small blind 75
killer3333: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to killer3333 [2h 8d]
dakota-xx: calls 75
killer3333: checks
*** FLOP *** [8h 7s 8s]
killer3333: checks
dakota-xx: checks
*** TURN *** [8h 7s 8s] 9♦
killer3333: bets 450
dakota-xx: raises 1350 to 1800

I'm pretty sure she's made a straight here which would give me 10 outs to the nuts. The potodds aren't there but if I hit I likely win the tourney, if I miss I'm going to drop the hand, leaving me with a workable stack of around 2800.

Do you make this call based solely on the posibility of stacking?

Nah, dakota is an experienced player. If you believe she hit her straight, it is very unlikely she'd call another bet on the river if the next card came a 7, 8, or 9.
Assuming the next card was a 7
8 8 7 7 9

She'd realize if you bet, called, then pushed all-in, you probably have a 7 or a 8, beating her hand.

If the turn card came a 8, any 7 or 9 makes a full house. Same if the card came a 8.

The only card that may have her calling you is a 2. There are probably 3 remaining twos in the deck. With one card remaining, you only have a 6% chance. Assuming she does call your all-in, you still have to call 13%.

If you're going for the 10 outs, you might as well push all-in because she's not going to call you on the river otherwise. But you're then risking your entire tournament on a ~20% chance of winning + a likely very small fold percentage if your read was correct.

 

[DaveE]

Nah, dakota is an experienced player. If you believe she hit her straight, it is very unlikely she'd call another bet on the river if the next card came a 7, 8, or 9.
Assuming the next card was a 7
8 8 7 7 9

She'd realize if you bet, called, then pushed all-in, you probably have a 7 or a 8, beating her hand.

If the turn card came a 8, any 7 or 9 makes a full house. Same if the card came a 8.

The only card that may have her calling you is a 2. There are probably 3 remaining twos in the deck. With one card remaining, you only have a 6% chance. Assuming she does call your all-in, you still have to call 13%.

If you're going for the 10 outs, you might as well push all-in because she's not going to call you on the river otherwise. But you're then risking your entire tournament on a ~20% chance of winning + a likely very small fold percentage if your read was correct.

I didn't consider that at the time, but I realised it as I was posting. You're probably right.