Cheap flop or Shove

[Jillychemung]

Live $15+$5 tournament, 40 runners, 6600 chips to start, $20 rebuy for 5000 chips if stacked during 1st 2 blind levels (25/50 & 50/100, 20 min each) of which 4 people took rebuys, 6 places pay, 6th = $24 1st=$180 or so

Final table, 10 players, table just started, 1st hand blinds are 2000/4000 and blinds will jump to 3000/6000 on the next hand.

Stacks of interest
SB, Hero, 18.5K
BB 2500
UTG+1 24K
BTN 19K
Biggest stack on table is only 42K

Hero posts SB for 2K
BB is AI for 2.5K
UTG+1 limps for 4K
BTN limps for 4K

Hero is dealt

UTG+1 and BTN have huge ranges here as Hero has played with them for the last few levels prior to final table. They have limped everything from 23o to JJ and they will call to the river small bets and/or bet small to the river if they hit any part of the flop, top pair, middle pair, bottom pair, two pair, etc. They minraise big pairs and have done so with KK & QQ. They have been running hot as each has had multiple hands where they have flopped big hands, quad 2, quad 7, trip J holding J8o, trip Q holding Q9s and minbetting to the river.

Hero has shoved a few hands during the last 2 levels. Taken out 2 smaller stacks AJ>AK and AQ>JT, lost to a smaller stack 99<AQ and won the blinds twice.

So does Hero shove for 16.5K more or just call 2K to see the flop? And why for either action?

 

[rileyl]

Easy Shove

 

[i desire love]

Why wouldnt you shove? You don't even have 5 BB left.

 

[The Shrog]

Perfect spot to shove imo.

 

[Jillychemung]

OK let me expand on my thinking here. Since it was live I did have a bit of time to consider these 2 options.

1) I estimate an 80% chance 1 of the 2 limpers will call my AI and I could be anywhere from flipping to dominating I could only rule out AA/KK/QQ from their ranges
2) If I just call the BB then I'm playing against 2 hands as the small stack could be ignored
3) Most of the time the flop won't hit me and when it doesn't, it will hit one of the other 2 and they can't be pushed off their hand then
4) If the flop doesn't hit me, I'll have another 9 hands before the blinds hit and I'll be in late position for 3 of these.
5) If I call and the flop does hit me and hits either of the limpers I have a 60% chance of getting the rest of my stack in with them matching it.

 

[c9h13no3]

If you're thinking anything other than "ARRRRIIIIINNNNN" then you're not thinking.

We have a dominating hand that likes to see all 5 cards, and we have 5bb's left. Uh... I fail to see how anything but shoving is good.

 

[The Shrog]

You say you have 9 hands before the blinds hit you again...I'm not sure you're going to be in a better spot than this in 9 hands with 5bbs left.

 

[Jillychemung]

OK thanks CC'ers. I did go AI and the BTN called me. I said to my nephew-in-law who was with me that I would need to hit to win even before BTN turned over his hand and I was right. BTN showed TcTs and the board bricked for me.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Yeah really easy shove. We have fold equity against the limpers even with 5bbs and even if button turns up TT before we act there is enough dead money in the pot for us to be able to happily shove and be fine with getting called.

1) I estimate an 80% chance 1 of the 2 limpers will call my AI and I could be anywhere from flipping to dominating I could only rule out AA/KK/QQ from their ranges
2) If I just call the BB then I'm playing against 2 hands as the small stack could be ignored
3) Most of the time the flop won't hit me and when it doesn't, it will hit one of the other 2 and they can't be pushed off their hand then
4) If the flop doesn't hit me, I'll have another 9 hands before the blinds hit and I'll be in late position for 3 of these.
5) If I call and the flop does hit me and hits either of the limpers I have a 60% chance of getting the rest of my stack in with them matching it.

It's good that you're thinking about stuff like this generally, but really you're wayyyy overthinking given the hand you are being presented with. "AK + limpers with wide ranges + some fold equity + dead money + 5bb stack = arrin" is all you need to be thinking here. Or, even more simply, "AK + 5 bbs = arrin"