Calling all-in on a dangerous board?

[blankoblanco]

Not many reads at this point, except stiller has been in a lot of hands and calling most pre-flop raises if they've already limped.

What did I do wrong in the hand up to this point? And do you call the all-in or not?

Full Tilt Poker Game #1185401734: $50 + $5 Sit & Go (8151112), Table 1 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:04:30 ET - 2006/11/02
Seat 1: gino0528 (1,485)
Seat 3: downzy56 (1,455)
Seat 4: stillerfan06 (1,130)
Seat 5: rainpan (1,020)
Seat 6: zazupits (1,200)
Seat 7: Lucas132006 (3,790)
Seat 8: combuboom (1,910)
Seat 9: BRINGURCHIPS (1,510)
BRINGURCHIPS posts the small blind of 20
gino0528 posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to combuboom [Ks Js]
downzy56 folds
stillerfan06 calls 40
rainpan folds
zazupits calls 40
Lucas132006 folds
combuboom raises to 160
BRINGURCHIPS folds
gino0528 folds
stillerfan06 calls 120
zazupits calls 120
*** FLOP *** [3d 8h Jh]
stillerfan06 checks
zazupits checks
combuboom bets 270
stillerfan06 calls 270
zazupits folds
*** TURN *** [3d 8h Jh] [Ad]
stillerfan06 checks
combuboom checks
*** RIVER *** [3d 8h Jh Ad] [4d]
stillerfan06 bets 700, and is all in
combuboom ....?

 

[ChuckTs]

Could be just a busted flush draw; could also be an ace-high flush draw that hit their ace and tried to checkraise the turn; could be a set, could be QJ....good god I could go on This would have to depend on my personal read of the guy and my gut feeling...

I personally am playing so tight at this point that I fold PF. That's just my strategic approach though, and if you normally play this type of hand at this stage, then I think it was fine.

This is why I stick to premiums only; people are more than willing to get their chips in the middle with marginal hands at this stage of the tourney, and I want to be sure I'm ahead so that my decision becomes easier. I don't like having to make tough decisions for my tourney life that early; I'm of course more than willing to though when the bubble hits and my opponents start tightening up.

 

[Irexes]

Personally I would limp preflop (fold to any raise) and probably make a small stab at the J-high flop, though I sometimes check it down. Once the Ace comes my interest in taking the pot disappears.

This probably makes me sound really passive but is part of what sounds a similar strategy to Chuck. If I'm going to get involved in a hand early in a SnG I don't want to be worrying about being outkicked with top pair on the flop.

You can lose the tournament with this hand, you're not going to win it.

 

[Bombjack]

Pokerfucious say: You no get involved in big pot with not big hand

 

[shinedown.45]

I would say fold, I think he has Q-10 diamonds and that's why he stayed in up to this point.

 

[ChuckTs]

Not many reads at this point, except stiller has been in a lot of hands and calling most pre-flop raises if they've already limped.

What did I do wrong in the hand up to this point? And do you call the all-in or not?

This is another mistake (IMO): knowing that this stiller player is doing so, I don't see the point in raising with KJ. If you're going to raise it, then at least raise it an amount that would make it a tough call for him, like 200+. You really don't want action with this hand.

I think I have to fold this hand, though. Too many hands that have you beat, and unless you have a specific read or gut feeling about this one I think it's a fold.

How are the $50s treating you so far btw combuboom?

 

[blankoblanco]

This is another mistake (IMO): knowing that this stiller player is doing so, I don't see the point in raising with KJ. If you're going to raise it, then at least raise it an amount that would make it a tough call for him, like 200+. You really don't want action with this hand.

Well I know if he calls, I usually have a better hand at this point, since he's calling raises with just about anything he'd limp with.

But more importantly, I have position. Doesn't that count for anything? If I limp and let 4 other people see the flop for 40 chips each, what am I going to have to hit to feel any comfort in my hand? Like two pair or better? How often is that gonna happen? If I raise with position I don't even have to hit anything and I can still take the pot down the majority of the time.

I dunno, I personally think that potentially stands to lose me more money. I guess I'd rather thin the field with position than limp with half the table. However, I will say that this hand is probably about the bare minimum I've ever raised with at a full table, and I only did cause of late position.

And the $50s are going okay Chuck, thanks for asking. I'm pretty much even in them right now, though luck still kinda sucks. It's like every time I make the top 4 I've been card dead all game so I'm relatively shortstacked, and then the other short stack wins every coinflip to stay in the game, and I lose my first all-in that gets called when I'm AHEAD (like JJ to KT, which just happened). Given how the luck has been, I'm impressed that I'm at about even. It's just getting boring getting dealt nothing EVER Hope things are going well for you.

 

[blankoblanco]

And in case anyone was wondering, I folded and he didn't show. It was really hard for me to fold because I thought the busted flush draw or any total bluff was pretty likely since I checked behind on the turn.

 

[loopmeister]

What makes you guys think a busted flush draw is more likely than a flush?

The tables I play people will be calling with 2 overcards; perhaps at the $50 level people are more circumspect?