Bubble play in sng badugi

[puzzling]

This is the first time I played badugi. At the bubble of a one-table badugi sng. Three relatively short stacks compared to one big stack. After lots of calm and quiet hands (read: all pretty tight), all of a sudden I got a "mild" badugi as a starting hand, and things went wild. Interesting situation at the end...

pokerstars Game #23002072265: Tournament #127639173, $1.00+$0.20 Badugi Limit - Level VIII (400/800) - 2008/12/17 12:41:59 ET
Table '127639173 1' 8-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: puzzling314 (2520 in chips)
Seat 6: bonjuvi (2330 in chips)
Seat 7: Nerice (2610 in chips)
Seat 8: rik-holland (4540 in chips)
puzzling314: posts small blind 200
bonjuvi: posts big blind 400
*** DEALING HANDS ***
Dealt to puzzling314 [3c Js 8d 6h]
Nerice: raises 400 to 800
rik-holland: calls 800
puzzling314: raises 400 to 1200
bonjuvi: folds
Nerice: raises 400 to 1600
Betting is capped
rik-holland: calls 800
puzzling314: calls 400
*** FIRST DRAW ***
puzzling314: stands pat on [3c Js 8d 6h]
Nerice: stands pat
rik-holland: discards 2 cards
puzzling314: checks
Nerice: checks
rik-holland: checks
*** SECOND DRAW ***
puzzling314: stands pat on [3c Js 8d 6h]
Nerice: stands pat
rik-holland: discards 1 card
puzzling314: checks
Nerice: checks
rik-holland: checks
*** THIRD DRAW ***
puzzling314: stands pat on [3c Js 8d 6h]
Nerice: stands pat
rik-holland: discards 1 card
puzzling314: checks
Nerice: checks
rik-holland: bets 800
puzzling314: ??????????


It is clear that the other short stack has a badugi, but not knowing where we stand, we let the big stack draw for free. At this point, I have 920 chips left, the other short stack has 1010 chips. Just wondering about optimal play here at the end, and during this hand. Thanks!

 

[viking999]

As played, I think you have to fold at the end. I would put your chances of having the other pat player beat at 50% at best, and the bettor may have sucked out as well. If the other pat player is remotely decent, I would think he'd be discarding with K high badugi or worse, because he knows you have a pat hand (likely badugi). With king high, he has three draws at 9 outs, which is pretty good, and he may be dead if he doesn't draw. So calling here you're essentially hoping the other pat player has queen high or weaker jack high. Of course, he may totally suck, in which case everything goes out the window, and you just have to play hand values.

On the other hand, if you call the drawer, the other guy may fold a better hand, because you're on the bubble and he needs to have both of you beat or he's as good as out (all in blind the next hand, and you get a walk). Again, that would require some kind of intelligence on his part to fold.

So in other words, I'm leaning towards fold, but I'm not super-confident in saying that.

Out of curiosity, when you 3-bet and the initial raiser stood pat, did you think about trying to draw to a better hand? I wouldn't want to be putting my whole stack at risk on the bubble in a multiway pot without a primo hand. I also probably wouldn't 3-bet on the first round if the table had been playing that tightly. I haven't played much badugi, but it seems to me that your hand is good but not great. I'd much rather have a great 3-badugi with one discard in this spot, because I'm not going to want to stack off without a monster.

 

[Dwilius]

Once there is a raise and call with the blinds and the relative chipstacks nobody is folding to 1bb bets. Your 3bet pretty much ensures no one is folding unless its on the end of a missed draw...I guess its possible but not likely a really rough badugi just folds to the 3bet.

J badugi doesn't play well three way if nobody is folding before 3rd draw. I'd be happy enough getting it in versus an isolated player but after raise/call I think I save my chips for a better spot.

I guess you could flat and lead out on the third betting round if they both check after seeing you stand, or draw if the raiser stands and comes out betting again. I don't know, I just don't like the situation.

fwiw, I've been playing with decent results but am still new to this like most ppl, so...

 

[Inscore77]

I would try to give an analysis of this, but I would epicly fail. D'wil has it pretty good though

 

[puzzling]

Thanks for all the responses! Definitely a lot of good points to think about for future hands. The rest of the hand: I called without thinking much about it, and the other shortstack wisely folded. I lose to an A237 badugi from the drawing guy. And eventually bubbled the sng, which feels like the norm for me these days.

So yeah, I find myself sometimes doing things so quickly without a second thought, such as the 3-betting and the last call. Really need to slow down and think things through a bit sometimes.

Out of curiosity, when you 3-bet and the initial raiser stood pat, did you think about trying to draw to a better hand?

After 3-betting, I was out of position. I stood pat, only to find out that the other short stack stood pat. By that time, I had only two chances to draw for a better badugi, which is probably too few. (In reality, of course, I was only thinking about going to showdown without paying another bet...which wasn't the case, unfortunately.)