Bubble play

[Kajagugu]

I always have these kinds of problems when nearing the bubble. We are down to 22 players and 18 pay. I am around 13th in chips and get AK UTG. Blinds are 200/400 with ante. The real money is for the top spots as this is the 180SNG on PS.

I raise to 1200 and get a shove two hands later that covers my stack. It is folded to me. Now what?

I can see the PT stats on the HUD and I have played 54 hands with this guy so far. He is very tight and has been able to get back to a decent stack from around 1200 earlier.

 

[joeeagles]

I think you fold this more times than not. He could be bullying you with the bigger stack, but usually UTG raises get respect. The times you call this depends on how active you've been and he's been in the last orbit or 2. If you've been doing alot of stealing or if villain has been very active and you've seen him resteal alot you may consider calling.

You'll always see this happen around the bubble because many players play well and pile up nice stacks during that time. As a general rule, with few exceptions (some here will say NO exceptions) you should not call raises, but should attempt to steal more, even with marginal hands, as long as you're first in the pot (first in vigorish). There has to be a very good reason to call, even with AK.

 

[Kajagugu]

My problem is that this seems pretty weak to me and that is why I have such a hard time in this situation. Do I fold to any re-raise? If I do, should I even raise UTG with AK? I don't think I want to limp. Do I only raise with monsters? Very confusing.

 

[joeeagles]

My problem is that this seems pretty weak to me and that is why I have such a hard time in this situation. Do I fold to any re-raise? If I do, should I even raise UTG with AK? I don't think I want to limp. Do I only raise with monsters? Very confusing.

You know, those are really good questions. It does depend on table, sometimes its best to just fold UTG unless its a real monster when approaching the bubble and table is very loose. In general, you're better off playing positional poker rather than calling raises or reraises. With 22 left, I imagine you're table was 7-handed. In those conditions, it very hard to fold AK, even UTG, so I understand your point.

Some here will disagree, but in certain conditions and against some players I'll make this call for all my stack. It's impossible though for me to say if you should of or not in this case.

All you can do is try to be as observant as possible when the bubble time comes, and adapt to it throwing in the occasional steal and resteal. In general, that is better than calling off your stack.

 

[Egon Towst]

Fold.

You asked the question, villain answered and you read him as a tight player. Therefore you must assume that there is a very strong chance he has a pocket pair and you are looking at a coinflip situation for your tournament life.

Wait for a better spot.

Stripped down to the simplest terms, there are only two reasons to go all-in for your whole stack in a Freezeout:

1) You have good reason to believe villain won`t call.

2) You don`t care if he calls, because you have good reason to believe you are a 70/30 or better favourite.

I don`t see that either applies here.

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

I'm sorry but at what point do you play AK? You have no better point to play this. What are you waiting for, A's? This is a tournament and at some point you are going to have to risk your stack. IMHO AK PF is a pretty good point to do this at. If he is a tight player then you know his range also includes AQ, AJ, and PPs. He also knows bubble play and is trying to push you off the table. No matter what you have you always have that chance of being beat. AK is a good enough hand to take that chance.

 

[Bombjack]

You've left out what your stack sizes are, and this is very important. If your 1200 raise is more than about 10% of your stack, you have to call here. In 13th place it's not like you're a chip leader - in fact you're pretty desperate. OK, you're flipping to a pocket pair (prob tens or jacks) a lot of the time but it sounds like you need to double up.

 

[pokernut]

As you mentioned in this tournament the money is really geared towards the top 3. That's what you're playing for, not just to make it past the bubble.

It really does depend on your stack sizes though.

 

[stormswa]

You've left out what your stack sizes are, and this is very important. If your 1200 raise is more than about 10% of your stack, you have to call here. In 13th place it's not like you're a chip leader - in fact you're pretty desperate. OK, you're flipping to a pocket pair (prob tens or jacks) a lot of the time but it sounds like you need to double up.

agree this is impossible to answer without all in required info, stack sizes and blinds and stuff. Everyone can say fold but we might not have any fold equity and might have to call this. Maybe we shouldnt of even got to this point and should of open shoved we just dont know without all the info.

 

[joosebuck]

fold. i made a decision like this in the VIP freeroll when i won the $11k. a nit player from late position shoved on my big blind and i folded AKs

edit:

im assuming you can likely coast to the final table since we are missing some info here, like stack sizes. average stack. blinds & when they're going up next. but based on an 'average' mtt scenario where you are confident in your game, i say fold.

if you're playing out of your league gamb00l and try to run to the chiplead while people are playing scared.

 

[Egon Towst]

I agree with Joose, assuming that folding will still leave us enough of a stack to make another play later. Obviously, if it would leave us with no fold equity, then we have to shove and pray.

Although I understand the "play to win" concept, and it`s a very commonly held idea, I have actually achieved much better success since I moved to a different strategy which I read in a magazine article by a pro.

I`m sorry, I can`t remember which pro, but it might well have been Chris Ferguson. I tend to seek out and absorb any ideas he publishes. I find I like his thinking on the game.

Anyway, the article said to treat MTTs as a series of stages. First, play to get ITM. Then, go all out for the Final Table. Once there, your goal is top three and, if you get that far, play to win.

 

[stormswa]

ok

I agree with Joose, assuming that folding will still leave us enough of a stack to make another play later. Obviously, if it would leave us with no fold equity, then we have to shove and pray.

Although I understand the "play to win" concept, and it`s a very commonly held idea, I have actually achieved much better success since I moved to a different strategy which I read in a magazine article by a pro.

I`m sorry, I can`t remember which pro, but it might well have been Chris Ferguson. I tend to seek out and absorb any ideas he publishes. I find I like his thinking on the game.

Anyway, the article said to treat MTTs as a series of stages. First, play to get ITM. Then, go all out for the Final Table. Once there, your goal is top three and, if you get that far, play to win.

you dont see yourself getting blinded down just trying to make the bubble because you are so worried about making that 1st stage? Like for instance you are in small blind with say AQ and are 2 away from bubble and you are say like 15 out of 19. Dosent trying to make the money affect your decision here? say you have 11 big blinds this would be a instant shove against big blinds raise but if you are trying to make the money you might just fold to make money costing yourself maybe a final table?

just something to concider.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

How are people saying call or fold without knowing stack sizes?

 

[Egon Towst]

you dont see yourself getting blinded down just trying to make the bubble because you are so worried about making that 1st stage? Like for instance you are in small blind with say AQ and are 2 away from bubble and you are say like 15 out of 19. Dosent trying to make the money affect your decision here? say you have 11 big blinds this would be a instant shove against big blinds raise but if you are trying to make the money you might just fold to make money costing yourself maybe a final table?

just something to concider.

It`s obviously an issue. So much depends on the situation in the particular tourney and the particular table that I don`t think it`s possible to formulate a general rule.

I want to be ITM, yes, but I also want to be there with at least 10xBB left in my stack, so I still have some options.

Only last night, I went out of a tourney in 11th place. I made a move rather than trying to fold to the final table because it was my judgement that the table was passive and that, if I also played passively, I would probably make the FT, but would be shortie and almost sure to finish in 10th place only.

Unluckily for me, Button woke up with a monster. Most frustrating but I felt it was the right play in that situation and I still think it was, result notwithstanding.

 

[joeeagles]

How are people saying call or fold without knowing stack sizes?

It's obvious that whoever is saying fold is saying so assuming that there IS fold equity. If that weren't the case this thread had no reason to exist. There would be no sense in debating a call or fold if there were no FE.

The OP didn't mention stack sizes but it must be implied that there is enough stack to make plays later, otherwise why even ask the question?

 

[Egon Towst]

The OP didn't mention stack sizes but it must be implied that there is enough stack to make plays later, otherwise why even ask the question?

Correct.

That was certainly my assumption, and presumably also the assumption of those others who have tried to answer OP`s question.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

It's obvious that whoever is saying fold is saying so assuming that there IS fold equity. If that weren't the case this thread had no reason to exist. There would be no sense in debating a call or fold if there were no FE.

The OP didn't mention stack sizes but it must be implied that there is enough stack to make plays later, otherwise why even ask the question?

There exists a middle ground between the two extremes you've stated though. If I say we both have ~8k stacks, it's not a completely clear-cut decision, for example.

 

[stormswa]

yep

There exists a middle ground between the two extremes you've stated though. If I say we both have ~8k stacks, it's not a completely clear-cut decision, for example.

I agree there is nothing we can do without knowing all the info, that is why there is this thing called a hand history!

 

[joeeagles]

There exists a middle ground between the two extremes you've stated though. If I say we both have ~8k stacks, it's not a completely clear-cut decision, for example.

Granted, I'll concede that there is a middle ground. If we're faced with that, then I think Joose nailed it best. If its an average MTT scenario and you have confidence in your game, you should fold, if you're out of your league, then gamble. In the latter case you really should because AK is a good hand to do just that. Actually, I wish I had mentioned this in my 1st post.

At some point in time, however, to achieve success in tourneys you need to learn small pot positional poker when its bubble time. This, I think, is the most important lesson Kajagugu should take from all this. Once you reach that level, you should fold this even in the middle grounds that you mention, unless there is a very good reason to call (based on opponent and table conditions) and that will not happen often.

I do also think it was good that the FE issue was brought up, just in case he doesn't understand the concept. It certainly doesn't hurt and maybe we shouldn't just assume he's aware of it.

 

[Kajagugu]

Hand History and result

How are people saying call or fold without knowing stack sizes?

Dorkus, you're right. Stack size matter and I should have included it in the original post. We were pretty close in chips 11K vs 13K. Anyway, here's the HH and the result of the hand. I won it and went on to take 3rd place:

pokerstars GAME #10082650410: TOURNAMENT #51098135, $4.00+$0.40 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL VIII (200/400) - 2007/05/24 - 13:44:31 (ET)
Table '51098135 5' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: ploiler74 (13115 in chips)
Seat 2: Rosti28 (20010 in chips)
Seat 3: fartsbot (13004 in chips)
Seat 4: Kajagugu (11590 in chips)
Seat 5: EATMYT8NT (24838 in chips)
Seat 6: Xmachine888 (13150 in chips)
Seat 7: H.T.V.J. (15360 in chips)
Seat 9: benjaminpel (13418 in chips)
ploiler74: posts the ante 25
Rosti28: posts the ante 25
fartsbot: posts the ante 25
Kajagugu: posts the ante 25
EATMYT8NT: posts the ante 25
Xmachine888: posts the ante 25
H.T.V.J.: posts the ante 25
benjaminpel: posts the ante 25
Rosti28: posts small blind 200
fartsbot: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kajagugu [Ah Kc]
Kajagugu: raises 800 to 1200
benjaminpel said, "nh, i had 10 10"
EATMYT8NT has timed out
EATMYT8NT: folds
EATMYT8NT is sitting out
Xmachine888: raises 11925 to 13125 and is all-in
H.T.V.J.: folds
H.T.V.J. is sitting out
benjaminpel: folds
ploiler74: folds
Rosti28: folds
fartsbot: folds
H.T.V.J. has returned
Kajagugu: calls 10365 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [9h 4c Jh]
*** TURN *** [9h 4c Jh] [Kd]
*** RIVER *** [9h 4c Jh Kd] [Ad]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Kajagugu: shows [Ah Kc] (two pair, Aces and Kings)
Xmachine888: shows [Qd Qc] (a pair of Queens)
EATMYT8NT has returned
Kajagugu collected 23930 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 23930 | Rake 0
Board [9h 4c Jh Kd Ad]
Seat 1: ploiler74 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Rosti28 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: fartsbot (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: Kajagugu showed [Ah Kc] and won (23930) with two pair, Aces and Kings
Seat 5: EATMYT8NT folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Xmachine888 showed [Qd Qc] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 7: H.T.V.J. folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: benjaminpel folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Thanks for all the great comments. I still think I had no choice here. I am not going to sit around and wait for a hand or fold into the money with a tiny stack. I need chips to make a run at a win and AK is the 4th best starting hand. I can't let that go. Maybe with a much bigger stack and against a much bigger stack I let it go, but not in this situation. I got lucky and won but I would have been happy with my play had I lost this race.

 

[joeeagles]

You're wrong, it doesn't matter in this case

Dorkus, you're right. Stack size matter and I should have included it in the original post. We were pretty close in chips 11K vs 13K. I got lucky and won but I would have been happy with my play had I lost this race.

Actually Kaja, in this case stack size DIDN'T matter because you had Fold Equity. The decision to call or fold in this spot is all up to you. If you feel comfortable calling off your stack every time with AK even when you have FE, then do it.

Forget about me, there are another couple players (both good players, Joose and Egon) that suggested you fold. This because of many reasons that are already posted, no sense in getting back to them. I don't want to insist you change your style, like I said do what you're comfortable with. I'm also not saying your call is terrible, regardless of results. In one of my posts I already said that in some conditions I'll make this call too, TBH though, as long as I have FE, like you here, I'll call this very few times.

As mentioned elsewhere, some guidelines can be established, but its almost impossible to make a general rule out of situations like this because so many factors need to be considered. So don't think I'm criticizing your play, because I'm not. The only reason I posted here again is because, as those who suggested to fold assumed, you did have FE.