AQ - nut flush draw, top pair, gutshot

[Sigfawn]

SNG on pokerstars. With the nut flush draw, jack for the straight, top pair, I might have been a little too excited on the turn. Should I have led out on the turn then given me the option to fold to an all in bet?

What about the check raise all in? Early in SNGs I get like gamble a little and with tptk + draws I felt pretty good.

PokerStars Hold'em No Limit $10+$1 Mar 22nd 1:51 am 7 players (Converted and Stored @ Felt Table).

Seat1 Hero (1655)
Seat3 CO (2600)
Seat4 Button (1235)
Seat5 SB (1880)
Seat6 BB (1705)
Seat7 UGT (2970)
Seat8 UGT+1 (1455)

SB posts small blind 15
BB posts big blind 30

PREFLOP Hero is MP1 with

(45 in pot)
UGT folds, UGT+1 folds, Hero raises 90 to 120, CO folds, Button calls 120, SB folds, BB calls 90

FLOP

(375 in pot)
BB bets 60, Hero calls 60, Button raises 180 to 240, BB folds, Hero calls 180

TURN

(915 in pot)
Hero checks, Button bets 300, Hero raises 995 to 1295 and is all-in, Button calls 575 and is all-in

RIVER

(2,665 in pot)

RESULT
Hero shows [Kh Ah] (a pair of Aces)
Button shows [As Qc] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
Button collected 2665 from pot

TABLE TALK
UGT+1 said, "I SUCK"

 

[ajrobin]

Well youve posted the results which obscures peoples judgement but ill give my opinion (probably not great) Youve got to ask yourseld what the villain has to be raising the flop. Hes either got a flsuh draw (but obviously not the nuts), or a queen good kicker. The fack that he wasnt scared off by the A would start ringing alarm bells at me, and id probably be tempted to flat call and see the river and see what he does. If it doesnt improve me to two pair or the flush and he bet at me id be tempted to fold.

Anyway im still learning the game so someone will prob come give you better advice

 

[sta123]

Well youve posted the results which obscures peoples judgement but ill give my opinion (probably not great) Youve got to ask yourseld what the villain has to be raising the flop. Hes either got a flsuh draw (but obviously not the nuts), or a queen good kicker. The fack that he wasnt scared off by the A would start ringing alarm bells at me, and id probably be tempted to flat call and see the river and see what he does?

Anyway im still learning the game so someone will prob come give you better advice

Pretty good advice, a flat call would be best here, in hope of a jack, king, or heart. I think he only calls if he has you beat, he obviously had a queen and the bet on the turn screams two pair at least. My opinion might be a bit biased from results but I think you can be sure he has two pair since the ace did not stop him from betting. Though, I don't think the shove is bad play either you could have the best hand somehow, and if not you'd still win around 32% of the time.

 

[widowmaker89]

I dont mind the move at all. The bet on the turn doesnt clearly scream 2 pair, you showed weakness he is trying to take down the pot. He would do that with any number of hands. His bet was less than 1/3 of the pot so folding would be a wrong move. This is just one of those hands you are going to lose I would say.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Using Pokerstove, if we assign him a top 12% hand (77+,A10+), we're a favorite on the flop (61%), a bigger favorite on the turn (65%), and even after the river card falls without the flush we're still likely to be ahead (56%). I'd have probably rerasied the flop bet but I would always (well almost always) want to play for stacks with this hand. If we just call his turn bet we're unlikely to get paid if we hit the flush. Push.

 

[feitr]

I actually like the shove here. Although there isn't really a chance he'll fold since he is pot committed, he really doesn't have to have 2 pair here at all so you could well be ahead w/o having to hit any of your outs.

If you are vs 2 pair w/ an ace you have 9 + 3 + 3 = 15 outs, unless he flopped 2 pair in which case you have quite a few more outs (15 + 3 + 2 = 20 (or 19 if he has QT)). If you are vs a set you still have 14 outs so it wasn't that bad of a move.

Oh and i would have raised the flop for sure with FD + overcards. Don't flat call that after you raised into the pot.

EDITED because i can't add 3 numbers together correctly apparantly...

 

[widowmaker89]

Dont double count the outs. He had the 9 flush cards, the 3 kings and 3 more jacks for 15 outs, I guess you just doubled the one and added incorrectly? Against a set he only has 8 flush cards for outs not sure how you are getting 15. Against a straight, which I would think is very possible you have 9 outs. Either way I think its a call here, just a bad situation to be in.

 

[feitr]

No. I did double count one J i guess (not really paying attention) but the rest is moreorless fine.

vs 2 pair on flop (QT for example)

3 outs (J for straight) + 3 outs (K for higher 2 pair) + 2 (if QT) or 3 outs (if T7) (pairing the other flop card for higher 2 pair..depends on his actual hand as to whether or not you take away one of his flush outs) + 2 Aces for trips + 9 hearts = 19-20 outs (ok yea not sure where i got 23 from).

vs AQ (2 pair sharing the A) 3 outs (J for str8) + 3 outs (K for higher 2 pair) + 9 hearts = 15 outs (ok mistake with this was from double counting one J and because i can't add 3 numbers together correctly...that is also why i got 23 because i just took the 18 + the rest of the outs, but coz the 18 should have been 15 that f'd everything up)

vs set 3 outs (J for str8) + 2 outs (A for higher trips) + 9 flush cards = 14 outs (not sure why you think 8 flush cards are the only outs vs a set)

 

[Sigfawn]

Thanks for the advice.

I've read some SNG strategy basically saying you should be in the money, or finishing 7/th/8th/9th. If you're finishing 4/5/6th you're being too conservative. So I'm really trying to push the issue early, get a chip edge and push around the small stacks as the SNG progresses.

I'll admit I went over the top all-in pretty quick, but looking over it now it's a very hard hand for me to lay down and then be short stacked this early in a SNG. A flat call there is definitely food for thought.

Regardless it's interesting to see all the views.

 

[widowmaker89]

2 pair: 8 flush outs(if he has Q 9 if not): also have 3 more with whatever card he doesnt have, the 3 J and 3 K=17 outs(18 if lower 2 pair).

Set: 3 JAcks. 8 flush cards=11. The A arent outs cause it gives him a full house. its 8 flush cards because paring the board also beats your flush.