Another tricky spot!

[Acemeister80]

many thanks for the advice on my most recent tricky spot!

but i´ve gone and found myself another one! My thinking is there can only be so many so ill eventually get the answers for them all!! I´m pretty sure i murdered this hand so please feel free to criticise/advise

Ok, so im playing in a 10euro MTT, pretty early stages and im sitting on 19K (from 10K start) and blinds are 100/200. So im on 190BB.

I pick up 88 in CO and, after its folded round, I raise to 3x - 600. Villain (with stack of 12K) from BTN calls the 600 and the blinds fold. So around 1600 in the pot.

Flop comes out 25Q rainbow which isnt a terrible flops for 88. I c-bet the flop for about 800 and the villain raises immediately to 2000.

Now this is a weird one because I´m pretty sure there´s a good chance I´m ahead no? Its unlikely he has any 2-pair in his range, I dont see why he´d raise a set on such a dry board. And i dont even see why he´d raise with a queen at this point.

I ended up calling the raise (mistake?!) so we have a pot of 5600 and the turn came with another undercard to my 88.

The villain now bets 3.6K and i tank for a while before folding because i´m such a pussy and didnt go with my read. I dunno, maybe he did have strong queen and had me crushed. But he could have easily raised my c-bet with complete garbage on a 24Q board and take it down.

So i was curious how to defend in these kind of spots.

 

[thatgreekdude]

He could just as easily have it as he could not have it, depends on villain and reads.

 

[Arjonius]

Now this is a weird one because I´m pretty sure there´s a good chance I´m ahead no? Its unlikely he has any 2-pair in his range, I dont see why he´d raise a set on such a dry board. And i dont even see why he´d raise with a queen at this point.

The likelihood you're ahead depends on his range. Of course, you can only go with what you think his range is, so what did you think? Even if you have no history to go on, make an assumption as to his range. Telling yourself you think you may be ahead already assumes a range anyway; you just haven't defined it to a range of hands. So take that step.

This may involve some working backward. For instance, for you to be say a 3:2 favorite, what does his range have to be? And then ask how well this range fits his line.

As for raising your cbet, you may not be looking at the full picture from his perspective. For instance, what if he did flop a set and is looking / hoping to build the pot? You might just call in this case, but that doesn't mean you can assume everyone will always choose it. Plus what if calling isn't the best line in this situation?

 

[Acemeister80]

The likelihood you're ahead depends on his range. Of course, you can only go with what you think his range is, so what did you think? Even if you have no history to go on, make an assumption as to his range. Telling yourself you think you may be ahead already assumes a range anyway; you just haven't defined it to a range of hands. So take that step.

This may involve some working backward. For instance, for you to be say a 3:2 favorite, what does his range have to be? And then ask how well this range fits his line.

As for raising your cbet, you may not be looking at the full picture from his perspective. For instance, what if he did flop a set and is looking / hoping to build the pot? You might just call in this case, but that doesn't mean you can assume everyone will always choose it. Plus what if calling isn't the best line in this situation?

thanks for the feedback. Thats a valid point you made about not just considering what I would do in his position. I doubt i would raise a set there because its such a dry board. Id more likely just call and then reevaluate on the turn and build the pot then. But that doesnt thats the same as what villain would do.

It just seems that theres so few hand he´d raise that flop on it would seem more likely that he raising my c-bet because theres a much larger range i could have that would fold and he could just take the pot down there.

For example, he might only raise that flop with 22, 55, QQ, 25, 2Q, 5Q, AQ, KQ, maybe a pcoket pair from 66 to TT (so that he can take over the betting lead and slow me down). And you can probably remove a decent part of that range anyway (25, 2Q, 5Q, QQ....). So theres not a lot of hands left. Whereas he can make me fold a huge range of hands that i could have raised in LP but missed the flop.

But if i call the turn bet because the turn card doesnt really change the situation. Im maybe looking at a 3rd barrell and losing 12K of my 19K chips if my read is wrong.

I have no stats on villain or any significant reads i remember i just felt that theres a good chance i would have been ahead but im gonna have to stack him really to find out.

Would a reraise on the flop be a possible move?

 

[X at Tripaces]

thanks for the feedback. Thats a valid point you made about not just considering what I would do in his position. I doubt i would raise a set there because its such a dry board. Id more likely just call and then reevaluate on the turn and build the pot then. But that doesnt thats the same as what villain would do.

It just seems that theres so few hand he´d raise that flop on it would seem more likely that he raising my c-bet because theres a much larger range i could have that would fold and he could just take the pot down there.

For example, he might only raise that flop with 22, 55, QQ, 25, 2Q, 5Q, AQ, KQ, maybe a pcoket pair from 66 to TT (so that he can take over the betting lead and slow me down). And you can probably remove a decent part of that range anyway (25, 2Q, 5Q, QQ....). So theres not a lot of hands left. Whereas he can make me fold a huge range of hands that i could have raised in LP but missed the flop.

But if i call the turn bet because the turn card doesnt really change the situation. Im maybe looking at a 3rd barrell and losing 12K of my 19K chips if my read is wrong.

I have no stats on villain or any significant reads i remember i just felt that theres a good chance i would have been ahead but im gonna have to stack him really to find out.

Would a reraise on the flop be a possible move?

I dont beleive a reraise on the flop is possible. there are so many hands that beat you, with an over on the board, and he has already bumped it up once on the flop, if you come over the top... and he shoves.. you have to fold. just calling like you did minimizes the chips you can possible lose with a margional hand at this point. I believe you played it right. Mid pairs like that that we dont hit a set with, are asking for trouble.

 

[Arjonius]

For example, he might only raise that flop with 22, 55, QQ, 25, 2Q, 5Q, AQ, KQ, maybe a pcoket pair from 66 to TT (so that he can take over the betting lead and slow me down). And you can probably remove a decent part of that range anyway (25, 2Q, 5Q, QQ....). So theres not a lot of hands left. Whereas he can make me fold a huge range of hands that i could have raised in LP but missed the flop.

Using what you stated plus assuming he's not raising sets, what's left as his raising range? AQ, KQ and maybe 66-TT. Including 66-TT, you're OOP with two outs much more often than you're ahead. Excluding them, you're crushed.

Plus you're even worse off if you're wrong and sets are in his raising range. So when he does raise your cbet, the straightforward action seems to be folding.

 

[Acemeister80]

thats all valid arjonius. And you talk a lot of sense so i respect your opinion.

the thing is, I would often raise a c-bet here with trash just because the board is so dry. And a turn bet will often take it down even if he calls. As happened in this case.

Maybe im just a bit of a maniac and im putting myself in his shoes. But i just dont quite understand what hands would raise the flop (apart from a set but then hes only getting called a queen or better). I just thought he might just be using the power of position to take down a decent pot.

 

[Acemeister80]

p.s if there were any typos or misspells in my last post. Or any gibberish whatsoever, you need to understand that ive been on the piss since 4pm in Benidorm, and its now 5:41am!!!! happy times!!!

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

his flop raise really polarizes his range as there are no draws present, and no worse hands that he could think he is value betting. (except possibly 77, but then that's still kind of a bluff, isn't it?)

So, he is either bluffing, or has you beat. simple as that.

so, if you call the flop raise it should be because you suspect he is bluffing.

if that is the case and the turn comes a blank you gotta go with your read and snap off the bluff, otherwise there was no point in your flop call.

So, I guess the question becomes how often do you think he is bluffing right here to make calling on the flop and snapping off the turn worth it?

 

[suby_rafael]

weak c bet

Firstly i would have pot bet at this spot as a cbet and then fold to a raise. But since you made a weak cbet you played it fine to call the raise and laydown on the turn to such a strong bet from villain. You might have been outplayed but then well played to the villain. We wait to find a better spot.

After reading Miss Jacki's comments i think she makes a better point.

 

[el_magiciann]

I think you can't defend in that spot, obviously your opponent is in possition to make that re raise on the flop because its easy to miss totally this flop, with weak CB you give him excactly the information he wanted to have for your hand to re raise you, i would raise 2/3 of the pot then if i face re raise i will imidiately fold my pair 8 on Q high flop. It's the mental point of the hand without guessing what his range is.