88 in SB, KK on board, opponent pushes

[ph_il]

Opponent is fairly TAG. The range of hands with the call is probably small to mid pair (22-77) or suited connectors. I dont think AK or high pair because opponent would reraise PF. I had been playing TAG myself and this is the first time I had raised in the SB.
I know I missed a C-bet opprotunity on the flop. That was my mistake, but when the K came out on the turn I was fairly certain I had the better hand. I bet out to protect my hand against possible flush. Opponents reraise all in through me off-guard.

So...fold or call here?

Also, what hand do you put the opponent on? And why would he push all in on the turn?
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full tilt poker Game #3454003036: $5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (26397549) Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:45:19 ET - 2007/09/03
Seat 1: DAD BIKER (6 025)
Seat 5: priest71 (1 015)
Seat 6: bred1231 (2 490)
Seat 7: Philthy (3 970)
Philthy posts the small blind of 100
DAD BIKER posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #6

Holecards:
Dealt to Philthy [

]
priest71 folds
bred1231 folds
Philthy raises to 600
DAD BIKER has 15 seconds left to act
DAD BIKER calls 400

Flop :
[

]
Philthy has 15 seconds left to act
Philthy checks
DAD BIKER checks

Turn :
[

] [

]
Philthy bets 800
DAD BIKER has 15 seconds left to act
DAD BIKER raises to 5 425 and is all in

 

[The PoolBoy]

run...you have been out flopped..your in second and the money is commin why risk it all now?

 

[stormswa]

the way you played it you have to fold, if you bet the flop you might of got the info you needed 1 street earlier though.

 

[jsi]

I think villain has Sevens and has put you on AK and is hoping for a quick call from trip Kings. I doubt he's got deuces but the result is the same.

Maybe he's afraid of the board pairing up again on the river? (with another deuce or ace, since he thinks you have AK, or another 7 if he's playing deuces). The pot is big enough to end the hand right here or if called win a huge one.

 

[dj11]

the way you played it you have to fold, if you bet the flop you might of got the info you needed 1 street earlier though.

In another thread stormswa suggests checking post flop in a very similar situation. I'm betting 1/2 pot at that point (post flop). You missed the opportunity at that point to define this hand. Half pot bet at that point either buys it, or tells you you're done with it if villain calls. And it will usually buy it.

But since you missed that opportunity, you have to fold it here.

 

[ph_il]

Here is my thought process on the matter.

-Opponent called my PF. Him being TAG, the range of hands I put him on is: 22-99, though 88 is very unlikely, KQ, KJ, JQs, K10s, Q10s, A/x suited.

-Possible opponent is holding big pair 1010-AA, AK, AQs, but I would expect opponent do re-raise me with these hands.

On the flop, I didnt c-bet (my mistake). Opponent didnt show any interest in the pot either, making me believe I might have the best hand. The K on turn gave me 2 pair and also made it more unlikely my opponent was holding a K. I did notice the flush draw, so I bet out to see where I was at in the hand and to protect against the flush draw.

Opponent pushes all in. This was a very unusual bet by this player. So lets examine possible hands he could be pushing with.

-An overpair to my hand, but lower than a K (99-JJ). since im holding 88, i think its unlikely that he would be holding the same, but not impossible. Also, even though I would expect him to reraise with big pairs, I could see him calling here and playing it safe just in case overcards flopped. [very likely]

-KQ, KJ, K10, Kx suited but not diamonds. These are hands I would call with and hope to get lucky on the flop. He could've been slow playing it on the flop to see if I bet out on the turn. I dont understand the push though because he isnt getting value on his hand. Im only calling with a better hand and folding weaker ones, so why not just raise me a bit and get value on this hand? Only thing I can think of is he is protecting against a flush draw, but the way this hand played out I dont see how he could put me on such a hand. [possible, but unlikely]

-22 or 77. He flopped a set, turned a boat, and then pushed all in. It doesnt make sense because he is not getting any value on this play unless im holding a K. Anything less and Im folding. If I do have a King, then Im calling/pushing a reraise most likely so a reraise here would get more value then the push. [very unlikely]

-Ad2d. Opponent checks bottom pair on the flop after my check. I bet out on the K trying to represent a hand and protect against the flush. My opponent thinks and/or knows that its very unlikely I would be holding a king in this situation and its possible his 22KKA hand is good. If its not not, he has some outs to improve his hand. [likely]

So, out of these for possibe scenarios, I think my opponent either has a pair better than mine or is on a draw. I fold believing my opponent is holding a hand better than mine. Of course I missed a lot of key information with my missed C-bet, but that is my fault.

 

[pigpen02]

I liked your other avatar better. Snort! Oink!

 

[bw07507]

On the bubble like this, if I have a big stack and there is someone with a very small stack, I might make a play like this with total garbage if I know that you've been tightening up around the bubble. Not many people will call here without a King or better on the bubble when there is a shortstack that is so low. And by you checking the flop, Id be quite certain you didnt have a King. I think its a good play by the big stack here. As played, you have to fold, you've still got 2500 chips.

 

[ph_il]

I liked your other avatar better. Snort! Oink!

Ya. She is pretty, isnt she?
Im guessing those are snorts and oinks of approval.

Am I rite?

 

[Blazing_Saddler]

Without betting the flop it is hard to see where you are, Once you checked the flop, I think you are all but done with this hand.

If i had to guess what he has, Possibly A7, Possibly Ax, thinking you will fold if you haven't got a king. It is a strong play with a big stack.

The possiblity he called with KQ KJ is there, and the fact you are still in reasonable shape if you fold, that is what you should do. As you know, a bet on the flop would have cost you the same, but told you a whole lot more

 

[jeffred1111]

Since your opponent is TAG and a big chipstack, he probably will cold-call with hands that connect with this flop (suited Aces, suited Kings) or with medium pairs, while he will reraise with stronger holdings. This doesn't help us since th check on the flop doesn't help us narrow down the range.

The flop check tells us that he is either disinterested in the hand or that he is slowplaying putting you a non-king hand knowing that he'll get value on later streets if he feigns weakness.

Now, the c/shove on the turn is either:
a) A King (or FH) hand knowing that that we know that a King here wouldn't do this, hoping for a call (since he would lose value as only a King hand would call): if that's the case and you call, bravo, he outplayed you.
b) A bluff (knowing that you'll only call with a King hand, wich is unlikely since you checked the flop and there's now two Kings on board: overpairs will do this)
c) A semi-bluff (flush draw)

This situation is very read dependant and out of all the options, b and c are way more likely. Now, this doesn't mean that we should call here since we make a small mistake by folding (we can still get outdrawn by pretty much all of villain's range) but we make a huge one if we get trapped (we bubble out while we have a comfortable lead over the two other shortstacks).

I fold here a lot.