$.75 NLHE MTT: ICM question

[tzuriel]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

ICM says fold here right? Such a tight fold. Was it the right fold?



I hated this spot but made the fold. Had been doing really well here and then went card dead while bigger stacks started doing what they should do: shoving when the small stacks already folded. This player had raised a few in a row and now did it again from the BTN. I couldn't pull the trigger with 2 spots left until ITM but then I was like really short. Horrible spot, tbh.

I regretted this fold and I am not sure it was the right decision. Thoughts?


NL Holdem $0.71+$0.07 (40000.00BB)
HERO ($340147)
BB ($175120)
UTG ($499932)
HJ ($349120)
CO ($247960)
BTN ($677948)

Dealt to Hero: J♦ A♦

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $677948 (allin), HERO Folds, BB Folds

Spoiler

BTN wins: $131200

 

[fundiver199]

In this situation BTN is supposed to be jamming almost any two cards, since the effective stack is only 8,5BB (you), he have both you and big blind covered, and he apply a lot of ICM pressure to both of you. And for that reason folding AJs is in fact to tight. I cant say right off the top of my head, exactly how wide you are supposed to call, but AJs is not the bottom of the calling range. I cant open ICMizer right now, because I am playing on pokerstars, but maybe I will plug the hand in later. Or you could do it yourself. They give everyone a free daily calculation for signing up.

 

[tzuriel]

In this situation BTN is supposed to be jamming almost any two cards, since the effective stack is only 8,5BB (you), he have both you and big blind covered, and he apply a lot of ICM pressure to both of you. And for that reason folding AJs is in fact to tight. I cant say right off the top of my head, exactly how wide you are supposed to call, but AJs is not the bottom of the calling range. I cant open ICMizer right now, because I am playing on PokerStars, but maybe I will plug the hand in later. Or you could do it yourself. They give everyone a free daily calculation for signing up.

Yeah ICMizer says calling here is +EV. Sigh. Now I know why I regretted it. Live and learn and get ready for the next tourney!

 

[zuker]

In pure ICM it is call. Fold if you know BTN is pretty tight.

 

[Mahdi]

I'd fold probably as well, it depends on what do you want, to build a stack or to get ITM

 

[300HPGOD]

On face value this is a call since button should be jamming with hands much wider than AJ suited. However the type of player button is should have a bearing on our decision. We are 2 off the money and button has this whole table covered. If they is a bubble abuser (you should have picked up on whether they are or arent by how much they are opening) then this is a call but if they havent been opening a lot and now all the sudden dont mind putting half their stack on the line near the bubble then they could be only in the high points of their range. Solvers here will tell you to call (which I agree with here) because they will assume the button is jamming perfectly. If button was jamming perfectly it would be at least any Ax, pairs, some Kx, even some Qx and maybe more. We are way ahead of that but highly doubt button is jamming perfectly here so it will depend on what you think of them. In this specific spot depending on what you told me about villain I could see either way but I think its much more of a call then it is a fold. There would have to be a lot of things lined up for me to not call.

 

[tzuriel]

On face value this is a call since button should be jamming with hands much wider than AJ suited. However the type of player button is should have a bearing on our decision. We are 2 off the money and button has this whole table covered. If they is a bubble abuser (you should have picked up on whether they are or arent by how much they are opening) then this is a call but if they havent been opening a lot and now all the sudden dont mind putting half their stack on the line near the bubble then they could be only in the high points of their range. Solvers here will tell you to call (which I agree with here) because they will assume the button is jamming perfectly. If button was jamming perfectly it would be at least any Ax, pairs, some Kx, even some Qx and maybe more. We are way ahead of that but highly doubt button is jamming perfectly here so it will depend on what you think of them. In this specific spot depending on what you told me about villain I could see either way but I think its much more of a call then it is a fold. There would have to be a lot of things lined up for me to not call.

Yeah. He had been open shoving the last few hands but I only had played 8 hands with him at this point. ICMizer says this is a call and I regret my decision now. Wanted more here than a mincash. We'll get 'em next time! Thanks

 

[Shumkoolie]

I don't hate the fold to be honest. Yes, you're doing fairly well against villain's range given their aggression. But I'd rather be the one initiating the aggression rather than reacting to it. If you were first to act, I'd jam AJdd and live with the result. Calling here is one of those "Calling but not really feeling great about it" spots.

 

[fundiver199]

If button was jamming perfectly it would be at least any Ax, pairs, some Kx, even some Qx and maybe more. We are way ahead of that but highly doubt button is jamming perfectly here so it will depend on what you think of them.

I plugged the hand into ICMizer now telling the program, it was an 888 Poker MTT with 27 places paying and 29 players left. As I would intuitively assume, this is a "jam almost any two cards" spot for BTN, because stacks are so short. In fact BTN is supposed to jam 91% of hands, which is basically anything other than total garbage like 62o. And if BTN is actually doing that, Hero is supposed to call with 17% of hands.

However when optimal jamming ranges become this wide, the margin of error becomes 1-sided. The Villain can jam to tight, but he basically can not jam to wide, or at least not in a meaningfull way. Its also fair to assume, that at a limit this low, most players wont quite understand, how wide the gap between jamming and calling ranges is supposed to be. So I dont think, we should call with 17% of hands here.

However for AJs to become a fold, we would need to have a Villain, who is only jamming around 20% of hands, when he is supposed to be jamming 91%. So unless we have HUD-data showing us, that this particular player is like the most absurd nit, we have to call here with AJs. Hero had actually seen Villain jam a few times already, and this certainly dont indicate, that we are looking at only a 20% jamming range. And even if its only 30%, which is ridiculously tight for the situation, AJs is still a solid call.

 

[tzuriel]

I don't hate the fold to be honest. Yes, you're doing fairly well against villain's range given their aggression. But I'd rather be the one initiating the aggression rather than reacting to it. If you were first to act, I'd jam AJdd and live with the result. Calling here is one of those "Calling but not really feeling great about it" spots.

Yep. I was for sure jamming to any standard open or if it folded to me. And based on what I saw on ICMizer and confirmed by fundiver above, I should have called here anyway.

 

[LetterRip]

Yeah ICMizer says calling here is +EV. Sigh. Now I know why I regretted it. Live and learn and get ready for the next tourney!

A plus EV call using ICMs default settings is not necessarily correct. If other players are calling tighter than ICM - which is sometimes the case, then your future shoves are worth more than ICM is using for its predictions using future game simulation.

Also if villain is shoving tighter than ICM, which is also often the case - then your calling range needs to be tighter that ICM is calculating using a 100% open shove range for BTN.

These two combined may change whether it is a call or fold. Generally overly tight folds are only a small mistake, but loose calls can be a huge mistake if you have overestimated how wide villains shoving range is.

 

[tzuriel]

A plus EV call using ICMs default settings is not necessarily correct. If other players are calling tighter than ICM - which is sometimes the case, then your future shoves are worth more than ICM is using for its predictions using future game simulation.

Also if villain is shoving tighter than ICM, which is also often the case - then your calling range needs to be tighter that ICM is calculating using a 100% open shove range for BTN.

These two combined may change whether it is a call or fold. Generally overly tight folds are only a small mistake, but loose calls can be a huge mistake if you have overestimated how wide villains shoving range is.

All very valid points. Thanks

 

[fundiver199]

If other players are calling tighter than ICM - which is sometimes the case, then your future shoves are worth more than ICM is using for its predictions using future game simulation.

In theory this is correct. If your opponents are making significantly more mistakes than you, then staying alive in a tournament is worth more than the ICM value of your chips. However in this particular situation it is counteracted by the fact, Hero can do a lot more damage with a 19BB stack than a 8BB stack. By calling and winning this hand Hero would become the new table chipleader, which is a great situation, especially when everyone are so short, that you can open jam on them.

So while your points are theoretically valid, in this particular situation we have to call with AJs, if our goal is the highest possible ROI and not just locking up a min-cash. And since it was an MTT for less than a dollar, locking up a min-cash really should not be all that important to anyone. Its more something, you might consider doing, if you won an entry into a tournament, which is outside your normal bankroll.

 

[LetterRip]

snip

I actually skipped over the part where you show how tight villain has to be shoving for it to be an incorrect call. I suspect not even many nits are shoving that tight, and given he'd shove quite a bit before clearly his range is wide enough for it to be a call.

Thanks for the additional insights.