$7 NL HE MTT: Deep in a 7.5k and flop 2 pair. Thoughts?

ovitoo

ovitoo

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Total posts
1,980
Awards
1
US
Chips
75
Game
Hold'em
Game Format
No Limit
Table Format
MTT
Buy-in
7
Currency
$
ACR doesn't offer a text format of the hand so here's a link to the hand replayer -> Hand Replay Link

I tanked for as long as I could otr. Every draw missing was the biggest part of my decision unfortunately. This was with 31 left in an 1100+ player mtt.
 
ADRI7HO

ADRI7HO

On the road...
Loyaler
Joined
May 6, 2020
Total posts
7,144
Awards
9
Chips
430
This was a rather unfortunate situation, I would have suspected a straight at the villain's check-raise, but it doesn't matter because your two pairs were beaten anyway, and if it was the turn call, the river 3 definitely didn't strengthen the his hand. Here, I would have hoped that he was just bluffing hard or that he might have AK or KJ or a slowly played AA.
It's unpleasant, because you either feel that it would be better to throw it, or that's the end.
I think I would have played it the same way.
 
dallam

dallam

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Aug 2, 2018
Total posts
3,099
Awards
28
Chips
169
The hand itself is really unlucky, and kind of unexpected. The reraise was something too powerful. Although your outplay wasn't the best. You kept doing small raises like you wanted to be outdrawned? Two pairs is still a strong combination on that board, although not the nuts. You started with 40bbs and until Turn only 7bbs were went in from your side. Flush hands easily can catching up with this, straight ones too.
So probably a bit more balls deep in this, if you open Q10o from BTN and hitting two pairs. :)

GL!
 
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
13,602
Awards
1
Chips
322
Running two pair into a set is of course a bit of a cooler. But on this particular board AJ and J9 flopped a straight, and KQ and KT flopped a higher two pairs. All those hands are some, both you and the opponent could easily have. So I actually dont think, QT is that high in your range, and I think, you could have gotten away, when he jammed the river. Yes there was a busted flushdraw, but there was also a ton of value hands, you lost to, so I dont think, this is a spot, where an average player is overbluffing.
 
ovitoo

ovitoo

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Total posts
1,980
Awards
1
US
Chips
75
Running two pair into a set is of course a bit of a cooler. But on this particular board AJ and J9 flopped a straight, and KQ and KT flopped a higher two pairs. All those hands are some, both you and the opponent could easily have. So I actually dont think, QT is that high in your range, and I think, you could have gotten away, when he jammed the river. Yes there was a busted flushdraw, but there was also a ton of value hands, you lost to, so I dont think, this is a spot, where an average player is overbluffing.
Appreciate the analysis. Honestly I didn't have a decent Ax in his range. Didn't have Qs or 10s in his range either with my hand. I did have J9 in his range but that was all that beats me in my mind. Was meaning to induce a bluff from missed draws with my betting. If they got there, then I could avoid a big loss also. Wish they would've gotten there in hindsight lol. Appreciate your insight
 
dallam

dallam

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Aug 2, 2018
Total posts
3,099
Awards
28
Chips
169
I agree, to any 3-bet on this board when 5 hit it's a fold.

Just did not find appropriate to go with the 30% bet on the Turn. I mean check or half pot at least. Opp is definitely connected in someway, so I'm leaning to the notes to see if pumping is rewardable at all.
 
eetenor

eetenor

Legend
Platinum Level
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Total posts
2,197
Awards
2
Chips
201
ACR doesn't offer a text format of the hand so here's a link to the hand replayer -> Hand Replay Link

I tanked for as long as I could otr. Every draw missing was the biggest part of my decision unfortunately. This was with 31 left in an 1100+ player mtt.
You state "Every draw missing" on the flop the V has made hands better than yours that will just call like KT and KQ- GTO has KQoff and suited calling most frequently and TT of course but also J9 small percentage and sometimes some V have AJ there and wanted a clean turn card to get all-in. This V is not playing an aggressive preflop strategy by flatting TT and so be reverse engineering the hand we could assume they would also act as I stated above and not raise flop when ahead.

We want to be thinking about the made hands in this spot and be making notes on how common a better hand is just calling flops like this in our player pool

:unsure::geek:
 
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
13,602
Awards
1
Chips
322
You state "Every draw missing" on the flop the V has made hands better than yours that will just call like KT and KQ- GTO has KQoff and suited calling most frequently and TT of course but also J9 small percentage and sometimes some V have AJ there and wanted a clean turn card to get all-in. This V is not playing an aggressive preflop strategy by flatting TT and so be reverse engineering the hand we could assume they would also act as I stated above and not raise flop when ahead.
Kind of beating a dead horse at this point, but its definitely incorrect to think, the opponent cant have a strong hand, because he check-raised turn rather than flop. In fact its just the opposite. In general a river check-raise is extremely strong and a turn check-raise is also very strong to the point, where Blackrain79 developed the mantra "a raise on the turn is usually the nuts, a raise on the river is always the nuts". Of course this is not true, if people play GTO, but against a lot of unbalanced opponents it still is even today.

And the reason is kind of simple. On the flop there are still two more cards to come, which mean, the equities often run somewhat close. And therefore draws can raise as a semibluff, and medium strong made hands sometimes want to raise for protection. Whereas on the river its completely black or white, since we are either raising for value or as a bluff. And in games, where people are not good at folding strong hands, there is no reason to bluff-raise the river. We can just raise for value, when our hand is strong enough, and people will still pay to see, that yes we had it - again.

The turn is somewhere in between, since there is now only one more card to come. Lets say in this situation, that the opponent had a hand like 98 of hearts. If he check-raise the turn and face a jam, he cant really call that off, because he is only getting a little better than 2:1. So he would have to fold out his equity, and therefore 98 of hearts is going to check-call again on the turn and try to get there, especially getting such a good price. So OPs idea, that this turn check-raise is strongly weighted towards draws is completely off. Its strongly weighted towards made hands, that beat him, and the only reason to not fold already on the turn is, that we dont want to be to easy to exploit, and we also have 4 outs against a straight.
 
Top