$7.5 NL HE MTT: Facing a river jam with top two early in a PKO

[fundiver199]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

7.5

Game Options

1. Bounty
2. Turbo

Currency

$

Have not shared any hands for a while, but in todays session a fun one came up. This was very early in a $7,5 "Hot" PKO on pokerstars, and the opponent had just joined. Would you check to Mcbluffboy on the river to let him bluff his busted draws? And as played would you give him credit for having a set or straight?

PokerStars, $6.69 + $0.81 - Hold'em No Limit - 20/40 (5 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

dimagd1 (UTG): 4,688 (117 bb)
Fundiver199 (UTG+1): 4,930 (123 bb)
RaqsSharki (MP): 5,373 (134 bb)
giwrgis4 (MP+1): 4,900 (123 bb)
Mcbluffboy (CO): 5,000 (125 bb)
Fear640654 (BU): 4,742 (119 bb)
hustle03 (SB): 4,719 (118 bb)
Bekaraz (BB): 4,960 (124 bb)

Pre-Flop: (100) Hero (Fundiver199) is UTG+1 with A♣ K♣
1 fold, Fundiver199 (UTG+1) raises to 120, 2 players fold, Mcbluffboy (CO) calls 120, 3 players fold

Flop: (340) 5♥ A♦ 2♥ (2 players)
Fundiver199 (UTG+1) bets 204, Mcbluffboy (CO) calls 204

Turn: (748) J♦ (2 players)
Fundiver199 (UTG+1) bets 449, Mcbluffboy (CO) calls 449

River: (1,646) K♠ (2 players)
Fundiver199 (UTG+1) bets 1,317, Mcbluffboy (CO) raises to 4,222 (all-in), Fundiver199 (UTG+1)?

 

[300HPGOD]

Everything I agree with through the turn so I will skip those streets although I would say that I think you can go bigger on the turn if want since its a double suited board and the 1010, 99 hands that call flop are probably giving up on turn. I think their decision is a bit more binary since they arent floating too many, if any, hands two streets that isnt a decent hand or Ax so you could milk a little more but that is splitting hairs.

On the river I think there are merits to both betting and checking since each one is targeting a different group. Checking is targeting busted draws while betting is attacking all the Ax that villain has. In these spots I tend to check which is a mistake at times when villains check their A8 behind so I think I like betting here. I dont think villain has too many sets since I think those could/would call flop but then on the turn they would/should be raising with the double suited board. We also block two sets with AK and any AA, KK, or JJ (at least I think JJ would) probably 3 bets pre. Therefore I think sets are minimal here as they are only 22 and 55 and just dont see those flat calling turn especially on this board. That leaves only Q10 (34 really shouldnt be there) to be anything concerned with and calling with that hand seems bad on turn although Q10 diamonds or hearts could call that and they backed in. However, I am not concerned with that as there are AJ and more likely KJ that could be doing this on river. 125 BBs is a lot to get in with any hand that isnt the nuts but I think top two here is enough based on how the hand was played and there still could be bluffs too. This is a bounty tournament, too, where they have you covered so they are more likely to jam river with two pair hands where in other scenarios they may not. I think I would call this and of course could be beat but I'm leaning call it off.

 

[fundiver199]

Everything I agree with through the turn so I will skip those streets although I would say that I think you can go bigger on the turn if want since its a double suited board and the 1010, 99 hands that call flop are probably giving up on turn. I think their decision is a bit more binary since they arent floating too many, if any, hands two streets that isnt a decent hand or Ax so you could milk a little more but that is splitting hairs.

On the river I think there are merits to both betting and checking since each one is targeting a different group. Checking is targeting busted draws while betting is attacking all the Ax that villain has. In these spots I tend to check which is a mistake at times when villains check their A8 behind so I think I like betting here. I dont think villain has too many sets since I think those could/would call flop but then on the turn they would/should be raising with the double suited board. We also block two sets with AK and any AA, KK, or JJ (at least I think JJ would) probably 3 bets pre. Therefore I think sets are minimal here as they are only 22 and 55 and just dont see those flat calling turn especially on this board. That leaves only Q10 (34 really shouldnt be there) to be anything concerned with and calling with that hand seems bad on turn although Q10 diamonds or hearts could call that and they backed in. However, I am not concerned with that as there are AJ and more likely KJ that could be doing this on river. 125 BBs is a lot to get in with any hand that isnt the nuts but I think top two here is enough based on how the hand was played and there still could be bluffs too. This is a bounty tournament, too, where they have you covered so they are more likely to jam river with two pair hands where in other scenarios they may not. I think I would call this and of course could be beat but I'm leaning call it off.

Thanks for the comment and I agree. He should not have to many of the hands, that beat me, and its also really difficult for me to give credit to someone, who have named himself "the bluff boy". So I called, and he had AQ. Not quite sure, what he was doing, but maybe he turned his TPTK into a bluff?

 

[300HPGOD]

This is why I mentioned in bounty tournaments where the villain has you covered that they will go all in much lighter than they would at other times. Could easily be that villain figured on river that flush draws did not get there and then AK is now blocked so in their mind they increased the value of AQ. Having you covered they could have thought why just call here and not go for the bounty completely discounting that you could have 2 pair or better. I am fairly confident that when villain makes this raise on the river they are hoping for you to call so they werent bluffing here... in their mind anyway