$66 NLHE MTT: $$66 NLHE MTT: JJ vs raise and 3bet

[Ryan Laplante]

Rarely play anymore and pretty much never post hands, but thought this was a pretty interesting spot.

Around 25 left in the WPN $66 30k. The opener has been playing extremely tight, raising 1/21 times from EP/MP. The 3bettor is a high stakes whale who has been playing overly aggressive preflop, opening 8/12 times and 3betting 1/7 times. He has not been very aggressive postflop however, cbetting 0/3 times and checking back some flops he should be cbetting with all his air. Has has folded to 3bets 2/3 times.


What's the play here? Fold? Flat? 4bet/call opener and 4bet/fold to the 3bettor?


Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 6,000/12,000 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com


MP: 32.38 BB (VPIP: 15.25, PFR: 8.77, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 60)
CO: 28.7 BB (VPIP: 23.91, PFR: 8.89, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
BTN: 52.32 BB (VPIP: 47.62, PFR: 47.62, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 21)
Hero (SB): 55.83 BB
BB: 25.1 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.43, 3Bet Preflop: 14.81, Hands: 72)
UTG: 15.27 BB (VPIP: 17.02, PFR: 10.87, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 47)


6 players post ante of 0.1 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB


Pre Flop: (pot: 2.1 BB) Hero has Jh Jc
fold, MP raises to 2.55 BB, fold, BTN raises to 5.27 BB, Hero.......


Cheers.

I would cold call here, but dont mind 4b to 13bb (with callingbthe mp jam and folding to btn jam).

 

[MaSSive_1]

I gave MP the cards that an extremely tight player would open late in tourney and BTN based on being an aggressive whale. (All pairs, suites aces, bigger aces, suited connectors)
Let me know what would be the range you assign.

It’s a guaranteed tournament so I assume pay outs should be around 20-30 players so we are close to bubble.
If Trent gives us number is players get paid and average stack sizes I can run a more accurate simulation.

Also, please give me the over call ranges.
If we shove, MP calls with what range and BTN calls with what.

I want to see what is your perspective here and draw a conclusion. I face this kind of spot all the time and recently I’m shoving 88+ and it’s inserting a lot of variance in my results.

On the other hand, when I get good amount chips this late and close to bubble, I abuse the hell out of table and the dead money so I can be sure I’m going for a big cash instead of ending up 5-17 place.

Here they are:

This is HJ supertight opening range:
https://gyazo.com/ed3561b1a26d8509524143f1347581b1

BTN wide 3betting range (20% is just crazy wide imo):

https://gyazo.com/f3b1f25bc251264dbf4caa120839d7a3


HJ and BTN calling vs 4b shove range:

https://gyazo.com/18be6ea46de663c11f50e9553bc4b225



This is How much we are profiting by shoving vs these ranges:

https://gyazo.com/33361194ec0eb132a444ff0d841146c3

(its dif than last sim i put because I went along with you and gave higher 3b freq to the btn)

 

[8bod8]

It depends on the actual situation and the most likely things to happen, how fast does the pot increase.
My fear is that in most scenarios much more betting will happen post flop.
Shoving seems an intention to convince the opponents to fold, I think this is risky with a 50% chance of at least 1 opponent also shoving; it becomes a coin flip.
Outside, but close to the bubble, fold and wait for better position/play is safe, but you don't increase the stack.
Call seems justified, but be prepared to fold post flop.

 

[MaSSive_1]

It depends on the actual situation and the most likely things to happen, how fast does the pot increase.
My fear is that in most scenarios much more betting will happen post flop.
Shoving seems an intention to convince the opponents to fold, I think this is risky with a 50% chance of at least 1 opponent also shoving; it becomes a coin flip.
Outside, but close to the bubble, fold and wait for better position/play is safe, but you don't increase the stack.
Call seems justified, but be prepared to fold post flop.

These are just bunch of assumptions without real logical/mathematical basis.

 

[alienat3d]

I would 4bet Jacks there, just to find out where we are staying before some safe looking flop comes. Something around x12BB would accomplish this i think. If we face a 5bet and especially if there are still both villains in pot i can figure maybe it's time for hero-fold. But shove? I mean we have 55BB, that's real deep still. If we fold after our 4bet, there are still 43BB left and it's still a healthy stack. And if we have a best hand BTN probably would fold on our 4bet. And if he calls we have initiative as aggressor on flop. If he 5bet, most likely we have to do with QQ+. That's my opinion.

 

[8bod8]

These are just bunch of assumptions without real logical/mathematical basis.

I'm sorry, I was not aware that "...real logical/mathematical basis..." is a requirement in this thread; ironically, all calculations done in this thread, but very often also in the world outside of poker, are based on assumptions, which may get lost and lead to the results being presented as facts, irrespective if the results are correct or wrong.
As example, in the carribean PCA tournament of this week, someone folded pocket Q's preflop (other option were: call, re-raise, all-in). Not too difficult to reverse engineer that the player had specific, non standard, assumptions, which resulted in the assessment of "too risky to play".

 

[MaSSive_1]

I'm sorry, I was not aware that "...real logical/mathematical basis..." is a requirement in this thread; ironically, all calculations done in this thread, but very often also in the world outside of poker, are based on assumptions, which may get lost and lead to the results being presented as facts, irrespective if the results are correct or wrong.
As example, in the carribean PCA tournament of this week, someone folded pocket Q's preflop (other option were: call, re-raise, all-in). Not too difficult to reverse engineer that the player had specific, non standard, assumptions, which resulted in the assessment of "too risky to play".

Live poker is different, there are live reads you don't have online as well as different population playing those tournies.

 

[ucdengboss]

I have to think that this is very close between 4b, call, and just folding. This level of play is beyond me but I wanted to thank everyone for their responses and the thought that goes into this. It has been nice to read through and has certainly made me think myself quite a bit.

 

[Loonbat]

Great discussion thus far.

MP: 32.38 BB (VPIP: 15.25, PFR: 8.77, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, hands: 60)

I know only based on 60 hands, but these numbers are fairly snug and worry me, particularly for 6-handed play.

While I fully expect we are ahead of BTN range, I cannot say the same about MP. Since folding is too nitty, I am calling BTN 3B and folding if MP ships (or 4 bets)