$6.50 NLHE STT: What to do here?

[WiZZiM]

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 6.5 Tournament, 300/600 Blinds 50 Ante (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) (t1141)
UTG (t5231)
MP (t935)
Button (t4588)
SB (t1605)

Hero's M: 0.99

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2

, 6

1 fold, MP bets t885 (All-In), Button calls t885, SB raises to t1555 (All-In), Hero??



Honestly, i had no idea what to make of this, the button is never folding here i don't think, spot where i'm pretty sure i'm committed no matter what, but if the bigstack takes both out, i make the money, my hand has pretty much no showdown value here in a 4 way pot.

 

[cjatud2012]

woah.

We're getting better than 7:1 on our money here, which is >12.5% equity before ICM tax... But do we have that much equity? Just a quick estimate:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
62s 18.51% (109,298 wins, 4,412 ties)
65% 21.35% (122,781 wins, 11,812 ties)
15% 32.60% (188,851 wins, 14,710 ties)
25% 27.54% (158,499 wins, 14,647 ties)

so it's probably a call at least from ICM... I also don't think we can fold just because the big stack could knock out the other two and put us in 3rd, cause that really isn't happening all that often.

 

[WiZZiM]

Sorry i should mention that the SB is a reg who i perceive to be on a very very tight range here

 

[Rldetheflop]

I definitely don't think I can fold here. We have straight and flush cards and although it is a slim possibility that the big stack will eliminate both players the more likely scenario is the SB will almost triple up eliminating mp leaving you on the bubble with less than one blind against semi-healthy stacks. A win gives a great chance to win the whole thing whereas folding pretty much means we are in the dead zone.

 

[Rldetheflop]

woah.

We're getting better than 7:1 on our money here, which is >12.5% equity before ICM tax... But do we have that much equity? Just a quick estimate:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
62s 18.51% (109,298 wins, 4,412 ties)
65% 21.35% (122,781 wins, 11,812 ties)
15% 32.60% (188,851 wins, 14,710 ties)
25% 27.54% (158,499 wins, 14,647 ties)

so it's probably a call at least from ICM... I also don't think we can fold just because the big stack could knock out the other two and put us in 3rd, cause that really isn't happening all that often.

I think this is a scenario where there is no ICM tax more like an ICM bonus as the difference between folding and busting out is very very little but the difference between folding and winning is huge.

 

[Jillychemung]

I definitely don't think I can fold here. We have straight and flush cards and although it is a slim possibility that the big stack will eliminate both players the more likely scenario is the SB will almost triple up eliminating mp leaving you on the bubble with less than one blind against semi-healthy stacks. A win gives a great chance to win the whole thing whereas folding pretty much means we are in the dead zone.

+1, you have a better return on the call here than if you fold and wait for the next hand which should have the big stacks calling you with ATC anyway.

 

[atlantafalcons0]

I'm folding and here's why.

1. This is a bad hand - we are likely to get a better one next hand to shove with.

2. There are too many people in this pot, pretty much guaranteed to be less people in the next hand.

3. SB's a tight player and likely has us crushed.

4. You could make the money before the next hand.

 

[Rldetheflop]

I'm folding and here's why.

1. This is a bad hand - we are likely to get a better one next hand to shove with. probably but a win in that hand will be much less helpful.

2. There are too many people in this pot, pretty much guaranteed to be less people in the next hand. And we will be in the worst shape of all of them

3. SB's a tight player and likely has us crushed. True but there is enough money in the pot to make up for our lack of equity in the hand.

4. You could make the money before the next hand. Small chance of this but even if it happens the chance of coming in first is almost none.

This is not a great spot most of the time we are busting here or on the next hand or the hand after that out of the money but I think in the long run we will make more money by calling here.

 

[cjatud2012]

Sorry i should mention that the SB is a reg who i perceive to be on a very very tight range here

ah okay, thanks for the update. I'm pretty surprised actually, that doesn't change our win equity all that much:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
62s 17.07% (100,948 wins, 3,796 ties)
65% 18.17% (105,348 wins, 8,297 ties)
15% 25.91% (149,456 wins, 13,019 ties)
5% 38.86% (227,728 wins, 11,829 ties)

The BTN might be more narrow than 15% I guess, even if he's at 8% though our equity barely changes according to propokertools. You could even narrow down the first player's range and your equity is still decent:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
62s 17.30% (102,959 wins, 2,459 ties)
35% 18.56% (107,499 wins, 8,822 ties)
8% 26.89% (153,873 wins, 16,065 ties)
4% 37.25% (215,986 wins, 16,194 ties)

If we were to fold, then with those ranges we make the money about 1/3 of the time and are virtually guaranteed to come in third. But if we call, 1/5.75 of the time, or 4/23, we'll more than quadruple up and be in shape to come in 2nd or 1st.

So it's really close basically, lol. I guess it would depend on how often you think you can do better than 3rd after you call and the bubble bursts.

 

[OzExorcist]

Bleh... I can probably find a call just because we're in such terrible shape if we fold - as in best case we get third and worst case we bubble anyway. At least in the small number of cases when we call and win we're in good shape to have a run at first or second.

Of course while I say that now, I know that in the heat of a game while I'm multitabling I probably just see six high with two all ins and fold like a bitch without any further thought

 

[Bwammo]

Yeah I would definitely fold this. Any chance at all that you can fold and make the money instantly is worth taking. Besides, 4-way your 26s is basically screwed, like 10-18% to win...and even if you win, you aren't going to make the money 100% of the time.

If we're just hoping to wildly get lucky, we can do that on the next hand...ya know, after the huge all in with the shortstacks is done. I'd be willing to bet the next hand you don't end up in a 4-way all in and have a better chance of winning the hand.

 

[WiZZiM]

Yeah I would definitely fold this. Any chance at all that you can fold and make the money instantly is worth taking. Besides, 4-way your 26s is basically screwed, like 10-18% to win...and even if you win, you aren't going to make the money 100% of the time.

If we're just hoping to wildly get lucky, we can do that on the next hand...ya know, after the huge all in with the shortstacks is done. I'd be willing to bet the next hand you don't end up in a 4-way all in and have a better chance of winning the hand.

That is pretty much my thought process on this hand, got similar replies in the moshman forum. I ended up folding here i just couldnt find a call, and with tables beeping i tend to just go with my gut instinct which said fold it.

 

[Rldetheflop]

let me clarify by saying this is a sucky sucky spot and we aren't making much money no matter what we do here but I was having a little trouble wrapping my head around the Idea that a fold here is the optimal play so I did some math and here is what I came up with.


The math here sucked because of all the different scenarios but i think I worked it out pretty well. First of all let me assign the ranges of our players. MP-shoves 45% here, button flats 15% and sb shoves TT+AKs, I have adjusted these ranges and it really makes very little difference unless you adjust the sb range but given Wizz's read I left this one alone. Ok so here we go:

If we fold scenarios

A)The big stack wins eliminating both getting us in the money with an equity of .218 this will happen 26 percent of the time.

B)The small blind wins nearly tripling up and eliminating the shortstack leaving us with an equity of .055 and this will happen 55 percent of the time.

C)the shortstack wins main pot and SB wins the side pot leaving us with an equity of .049 and this will happen 12.9 percent of the time.

D)the shortstack wins main pot and the Button wins the side pot leaving us with an equity of .053 and this will happen 6.1 percent of the time.

scenarios if we call:

A)we win the main pot and side pot1 eliminating the shortstack and the SB wins the side pot2 leaving us with an equity of .312 and this will happen 10.9 percent of the time.

B)We win the main pot and side pot1 eliminating the shortstack and the Button wins the side pot2 eliminating SB leaving us with an equity of .331 and this will happen 5.1 percent of the time.

C)we lose the main pot and side pot1 eliminating us from the tourney leaving us with an equity of 0 and this will happen 84 percent of the time.

note: there is another scenario where we lose the main pot but win side pot1 but I didnt include this as I dont think it would matter enough to change anything.

so the math breaks down like this:

.312(10.9%)+.331(5.1%)+0(84.0%)=.034+.017=.051 average equity on a call

.218(26%)+.055(55%)+.049(12.9%)+.053(6.1%)=.057+.030+.006+.003=

avg equity fold=.096


.096>.051 so this is clearly a fold. Kinda glad this came up it was kinda fun. Guess I underestimated the devistation of 0 equity 84 percent of the time.

 

[atlantafalcons0]

let me clarify by saying this is a sucky sucky spot and we aren't making much money no matter what we do here but I was having a little trouble wrapping my head around the Idea that a fold here is the optimal play so I did some math and here is what I came up with.


The math here sucked because of all the different scenarios but i think I worked it out pretty well. First of all let me assign the ranges of our players. MP-shoves 45% here, button flats 15% and sb shoves TT+AKs, I have adjusted these ranges and it really makes very little difference unless you adjust the sb range but given Wizz's read I left this one alone. Ok so here we go:

If we fold scenarios

A)The big stack wins eliminating both getting us in the money with an equity of .218 this will happen 26 percent of the time.

B)The small blind wins nearly tripling up and eliminating the shortstack leaving us with an equity of .055 and this will happen 55 percent of the time.

C)the shortstack wins main pot and SB wins the side pot leaving us with an equity of .049 and this will happen 12.9 percent of the time.

D)the shortstack wins main pot and the Button wins the side pot leaving us with an equity of .053 and this will happen 6.1 percent of the time.

scenarios if we call:

A)we win the main pot and side pot1 eliminating the shortstack and the SB wins the side pot2 leaving us with an equity of .312 and this will happen 10.9 percent of the time.

B)We win the main pot and side pot1 eliminating the shortstack and the Button wins the side pot2 eliminating SB leaving us with an equity of .331 and this will happen 5.1 percent of the time.

C)we lose the main pot and side pot1 eliminating us from the tourney leaving us with an equity of 0 and this will happen 84 percent of the time.

note: there is another scenario where we lose the main pot but win side pot1 but I didnt include this as I dont think it would matter enough to change anything.

so the math breaks down like this:

.312(10.9%)+.331(5.1%)+0(84.0%)=.034+.017=.051 average equity on a call

.218(26%)+.055(55%)+.049(12.9%)+.053(6.1%)=.057+.030+.006+.003=

avg equity fold=.096


.096>.051 so this is clearly a fold. Kinda glad this came up it was kinda fun. Guess I underestimated the devistation of 0 equity 84 percent of the time.

That was awesome.

Great post!

 

[WiZZiM]

let me clarify by saying this is a sucky sucky spot and we aren't making much money no matter what we do here but I was having a little trouble wrapping my head around the Idea that a fold here is the optimal play so I did some math and here is what I came up with.


The math here sucked because of all the different scenarios but i think I worked it out pretty well. First of all let me assign the ranges of our players. MP-shoves 45% here, button flats 15% and sb shoves TT+AKs, I have adjusted these ranges and it really makes very little difference unless you adjust the sb range but given Wizz's read I left this one alone. Ok so here we go:

If we fold scenarios

A)The big stack wins eliminating both getting us in the money with an equity of .218 this will happen 26 percent of the time.

B)The small blind wins nearly tripling up and eliminating the shortstack leaving us with an equity of .055 and this will happen 55 percent of the time.

C)the shortstack wins main pot and SB wins the side pot leaving us with an equity of .049 and this will happen 12.9 percent of the time.

D)the shortstack wins main pot and the Button wins the side pot leaving us with an equity of .053 and this will happen 6.1 percent of the time.

scenarios if we call:

A)we win the main pot and side pot1 eliminating the shortstack and the SB wins the side pot2 leaving us with an equity of .312 and this will happen 10.9 percent of the time.

B)We win the main pot and side pot1 eliminating the shortstack and the Button wins the side pot2 eliminating SB leaving us with an equity of .331 and this will happen 5.1 percent of the time.

C)we lose the main pot and side pot1 eliminating us from the tourney leaving us with an equity of 0 and this will happen 84 percent of the time.

note: there is another scenario where we lose the main pot but win side pot1 but I didnt include this as I dont think it would matter enough to change anything.

so the math breaks down like this:

.312(10.9%)+.331(5.1%)+0(84.0%)=.034+.017=.051 average equity on a call

.218(26%)+.055(55%)+.049(12.9%)+.053(6.1%)=.057+.030+.006+.003=

avg equity fold=.096


.096>.051 so this is clearly a fold. Kinda glad this came up it was kinda fun. Guess I underestimated the devistation of 0 equity 84 percent of the time.

Sorry thought i replied to this post. Yeah that all looks fine, glad someone did the math as i certainly wasn't planning to .

 

[Rldetheflop]

Sorry thought i replied to this post. Yeah that all looks fine, glad someone did the math as i certainly wasn't planning to .

yea I wasnt planning on doing the math either but I was having a real problem with understanding how folding is the better play here since one of the things I learned early on in poker was that <1 blind is as good as dead so dont allow yourself to get there.

As my wife can attest I am quite hard-headed but I am a numbers guy so If I see it that way I have no choice but to believe it.

 

[OzExorcist]

Guess I underestimated the devistation of 0 equity 84 percent of the time.

Likewise - my gut was expecting it to be a lot closer...