$6.50 NLHE STT Turbo: Would 87s be better than AJ here?

[pat3392]

$6.50 NL HE STT Turbo: Would 87s be better than AJ here?

poker stars $6.00+$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t75/t150 Blinds - 7 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: t2205 M = 9.80
UTG+1: t1340 M = 5.96
MP: t3245 M = 14.42
Hero (CO): t1390 M = 6.18
BTN: t1890 M = 8.40
SB: t1950 M = 8.67
BB: t1480 M = 6.58

Pre Flop: (t225) Hero is CO with J:club: A:diamond:
UTG raises to t300, 2 folds, Hero raises to t1390 all in, 4 folds

I'm thinking that this kind of bet here is either garbage or monster; because of this perhaps AJ is a bad hand to shove here, since he'll fold the garbage and dominant AJ with the monsters.

AJ vs. JJ+,AQs+,AKo wins 25% where 87s wins 30%

If this shove makes villain fold about 45% of the time it would be neutral EV (.25x(225+1390x2) =751.25 751.25+525=1276.25, which almost equals 1390)

The problem is though some random may jump in with 99 thinking he is good; UTG raiser is a multi-tabler so I tend to give them respect and wouldn't think he'd play a hand like that; but a random *shrugs* who knows what goes through their heads

I was going to plug this into SnG wizard but wasn't sure how often villain would have a monster; words of wisdom/experience please

 

[WiZZiM]

UTg even vs a random this is probably a fold, we still have players left to act behind us, since it's an UTG regular, most regs wont be raising with worse than AJ here too often, so we're behind that range. Don't really need to plug this into wiz, i think AQ is a lot closer, and is probably a shove.

Against an aggressive random, this my be a shove, it's pretty close though.