$6.50 NLHE STT Turbo: SS in BB A3s on bubble. Call?

[DetroitJimmy]

I just moved back up to $6.50's recently and seem way more aggressive on bubble than the easier to play $2.25's. So I am looking to improve my game mostly at the end because this seems to be the most important.

Anyway here we go. The guy to the left of me(SB) is a little loose and I'm sure will call me with any AKQ, SC,SG,or PP.. The 5th guy just busted out. The raiser I haven't seen any showdowns and has been stealing prolly 30% since the blinds have been worth it. The blinds are going up in less than a minute. Is this a call? I'm leaning toward fold just because I think villians shoving range may about the same as the SB's calling range. Many hands in that range dominate me. I will still have 4-5 BB's left after I go through blinds. Even against a loose range(top 50% or so) I still have some good fold equity correct? I think a call here is borderline at best. This is why I bring it here because I haven't played these in a while and seems strategy has changed since I have been a winning player at this level last.

Full Tilt - $6+0.50 $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) (#214953457) - Blinds: 150/300 No Limit Hold'em (4 players)
Full Tilt Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: t3,955
BB Hero: t2,460
UTG: t3,615
BTN: t3,470

Pre-flop: (t450) Hero is BB and dealt
2 folds, SB raises t3,805 (All-in), Hero ?

 

[t1riel]

You're severely shortstacked and you have A-rag suited. Let me put it this way. Are you going to get a better hand than that in the next three hands with the blinds going up soon? Probably not, I would call here and pray you have at least an over.

 

[cjatud2012]

Praying on the bubble doesn't really seem like a good strategy. I'd rather push 32o on the next hand than "pray". No offense.

Punched this into SNGWiz, it says it's definitely a fold, only until he gets to ~100% of hands should we start to think about calling. I can't really think of a reason to go against ICM here (that doesn't mean that there isn't, I just don't know what that reason would be). The best thing I could think of is that you're in 4th place at the moment so there's a little more pressure, but it's not like you're desperately short-stacked, you can fold here and still have 7bb's left, so you have plenty of fold equity to try and steal the blinds from the other players.

 

[brackdog]

I can't call a shove with that hand. I could push with it, but I'm not calling with it. Best I can imagine is that I'm a little ahead of a couple high cards, and if I'm up against another A or a small pair, things are grim.

No one at that table is so deep that they're not feeling the blinds, and I'd rather use my stack as a hammer than a shield. Fold, and wait until you can open shove. In the meantime, maybe the horse will sing.

bd

 

[WiZZiM]

After folding we still have a stack we can work with, so this is definitely a fold. Low Aces don't really play too well for calling all ins, but being suited it makes it a slightly better hand.

For me situations like this heavily rely on table positioning. What i mean by that is how are we setup in relation to the other players.

Is the SB shoving into us wide? Is the player on our left tight, or loose? Will the player to our left shove really wide?

All this information for me influences how i figure out if calling is good/bad. Like for a quick example, If i know the player on my left is a maniac and i'm not going to be able to shove very wide on him in the future then i'll open up my range for calling. If the SB is shoving into me super wide trying to own me, then i'll open up (especially if they are regs).

SNG Wiz won't give the exact story here, so calling could be slightly better or worse than it suggests.


If you have SNG Wiz, play around with the stack sizes in spots like this too see how it's influenced. Play around with calling ranges, and the anaylsis part below too.

 

[cjatud2012]

Is the SB shoving into us wide? Is the player on our left tight, or loose? Will the player to our left shove really wide?

All this information for me influences how i figure out if calling is good/bad. Like for a quick example, If i know the player on my left is a maniac and i'm not going to be able to shove very wide on him in the future then i'll open up my range for calling. If the SB is shoving into me super wide trying to own me, then i'll open up (especially if they are regs).

Sick advice right here imo!