$6.50 NLHE STT Turbo: Q2s bubble vs nit

[DetroitJimmy]

I have shoved into SB last 2 or 3 orbits to stay alive. He seems to be a decent player who shoves when he needs to but won't call light(kinda like me). Anyhow the CL is good winning player and so is other guy involved. Maybe this is an easy fold IDK since I have a couple of rounds to act still. Blinds are rising in less than one minute though. Then I have to make a move next round or risk blinding out. Hell IDK that's why I brought it here. If it were JTs + 66+ it would be easy shove correct?


Full Tilt - $6+0.50 $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) (#215682390) - Blinds: 120/240 No Limit Hold'em (4 players)
Full Tilt Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB Hero: t2,320
BB: t2,520
UTG: t2,885
BTN: t5,775

Pre-flop: (t360) Hero is SB and dealt
2 folds, Hero ?

 

[WiZZiM]

Against guys who don't call enough, shove it all day long, especially if he is multitabling, he will rarely notice you are even shoving.

 

[OzExorcist]

I'm happy shipping this, especially in a spot like this where there's no clear short stack so it's not like we're risking elimination when there's someone who's about to get blinded out or anything.

 

[DetroitJimmy]

In this situation should I shove ATC or maybe every thing except for total garbage? Maybe top 80% hands?

 

[-Phil Ivey27]

There is definitely a good case for shoving here but what if he wakes up with some ace and decides to make a call, which i've seen a good amount of time happen from experience from shoving with trash.. Didn't we just get knocked out/bubble for 240 chips/1BB? That's what really would/does bother me.

 

[DetroitJimmy]

There is definitely a good case for shoving here but what if he wakes up with some ace and decides to make a call, which i've seen a good amount of time happen from experience from shoving with trash.. Didn't we just get knocked out/bubble for 240 chips/1BB? That's what really would/does bother me.

For one it's 360 chips which is over 15% of my stack so yeah worth a risk. Assume he calls 40% of the time. This means I win 60% without seeing a flop. Even if he calls with AK I will still win about 30% of the time(don't know exactly but close). And the fact that he is tight means 60% is stretching it even if he is sick of me shoving. Folding is bad here I think.

 

[-Phil Ivey27]

For one it's 360 chips which is over 15% of my stack so yeah worth a risk. Assume he calls 40% of the time. This means I win 60% without seeing a flop. Even if he calls with AK I will still win about 30% of the time(don't know exactly but close). And the fact that he is tight means 60% is stretching it even if he is sick of me shoving. Folding is bad here I think.

So you have 2300 trying to win 360 and he calls you 40% of the time then that would be a terrible play.. I don't want to risk my whole stack on the bubble to increase my stack by 15% when there is a 40% I get called absolutely not. If he calls like 10% of the time then yes sure you are making the correct move. I don't know exactly how to calculate all of this though.

 

[cjatud2012]

It ultimately depends on how wide he is calling, though we can't be quite as aggressive since we are on the bubble. Still, I think this fits into our shove range here. Oz also alluded to the fact that if there were a clear short stack then this would probably be a fold, but there's a 3-way virtual tie for last so we don't have that reason to nit up.

@Phil, you are very right, if villain calls ~40% here we shouldn't be shoving. But he's never going to be calling that wide here in my experience - 15% is probably the maximum. Even if he realizes you are shoving pretty wide, he's not gonna want to risk his entire equity in this spot, or at least most players wouldn't. So that makes worth the risk.

 

[WiZZiM]

There is definitely a good case for shoving here but what if he wakes up with some ace and decides to make a call, which i've seen a good amount of time happen from experience from shoving with trash.. Didn't we just get knocked out/bubble for 240 chips/1BB? That's what really would/does bother me.

You'd rather blind out?

 

[WiZZiM]

It ultimately depends on how wide he is calling, though we can't be quite as aggressive since we are on the bubble. Still, I think this fits into our shove range here. Oz also alluded to the fact that if there were a clear short stack then this would probably be a fold, but there's a 3-way virtual tie for last so we don't have that reason to nit up.

@Phil, you are very right, if villain calls ~40% here we shouldn't be shoving. But he's never going to be calling that wide here in my experience - 15% is probably the maximum. Even if he realizes you are shoving pretty wide, he's not gonna want to risk his entire equity in this spot, or at least most players wouldn't. So that makes worth the risk.

15 is a little tight, actually. In the 6.50's players tend to call down fairly wide. I don't think most players are folding any Ax type hand, so i'd assume a standard range to be around 25% depending on the player.

 

[-Phil Ivey27]

You'd rather blind out?

Nobody is blinding out you are just finishing the orbit and you can easily survive another one and look for a better spot. Like I said I DO shove here, if the villains range calling range is as tight as you say, but I also find myself sometimes making shoves like this that get called by A5, and i'm out on the bubble and I know i could've waited for a better spot.

Also I think it depends on the tightness of the players around us because if I see that I have a loose donkish table then let them gamble there money in situations like these and pick my spots a little better. Even a very tight table I might muck because I know i'll pick up blinds later on but originally I don't really have a problem with this shove.

 

[cjatud2012]

Nobody is blinding out you are just finishing the orbit and you can easily survive another one and look for a better spot. Like I said I DO shove here, if the villains range calling range is as tight as you say, but I also find myself sometimes making shoves like this that get called by A5, and i'm out on the bubble and I know i could've waited for a better spot.

Well you can't really wait forever, especially in a turbo. Plus he has a range, not just A5, so it's kinda pointless to say "what if" imo.

 

[DetroitJimmy]

Well you can't really wait forever, especially in a turbo. Plus he has a range, not just A5, so it's kinda pointless to say "what if" imo.

Exactly. TBH Q7s I wouldn't have even had to think about it. It's the 2 I don't like. This hand is good enough though vs. this type of player. Even if he does call with A5o were not in too bad of shape at all here. If we win we are in great shape for a first place finish.

 

[baudib1]

This shouldn't even be near the bottom of your shoving range.