$6.50 NLHE STT: Bubble Button 66, UTG raise

[fletchdad]

Villain was a good reg, I had played him before and had him marked as such. He was a multitabler. 13/12 over 116 hands, and he was 14% CO steal. He had been generally tight and not doing anything crazy. I searched him in SS and he is an experienced +ROI player.

No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t3055)
Hero (Button) (t3890)
SB (t2575)
BB (t3980)

Hero's M: 12.97

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6

, 6

UTG bets t500,
Hero???

 

[WiZZiM]

Not really worth getting involved here.

 

[cjatud2012]

A good player probably isn't going to raise/fold here very often, so his range is likely to be pretty strong. Plus with the chip position we're in we can't be too loose. So fold imo.

 

[baudib1]

easy fold

 

[OzExorcist]

As has been mentioned above, against a good player we're almost never getting a fold here and it's often a strong hand trying to induce a shove. I think we can fold safely.

 

[fletchdad]

I did fold, and was wondering how borderline it may have been. Seems like it was actually WAY far from the border.


Thanks for the responses!!!

 

[Bwammo]

Lol um...I'm shoving all day

If he's a good player, he might very well be attempting to abuse the bubble...but even disregarding that possibility of a wider range, putting him on a tighter range like top 15% he's going to be folding a very large percentage of that. If he's really a good player, he knows he cannot call an all in preflop on the bubble like this on a coinflip. That means he's basically going to call with top 5%, merely 1/3 of the time he makes this raise...again that's not even considering that he might be abusing the system right now.

In theory, 2/3 of the time we're going to win 800 chips and be sitting REALLY pretty with nearly 4700, 2x the size of two other players and we can just sit back. If we don't take this play, we're going to be 1.5x the stack of just one player, and roughly even with 2 others. Because folding totally negates our potential stack advantage, the only way I'd be tempted to fold this is if the other 2 players were just SO bad that I knew one of them would bust before me or if they were SO tight that I knew it'd be a cakewalk to steal their blinds basically every round.

 

[WiZZiM]

Lol um...I'm shoving all day

If he's a good player, he might very well be attempting to abuse the bubble...but even disregarding that possibility of a wider range, putting him on a tighter range like top 15% he's going to be folding a very large percentage of that. If he's really a good player, he knows he cannot call an all in preflop on the bubble like this on a coinflip. That means he's basically going to call with top 5%, merely 1/3 of the time he makes this raise...again that's not even considering that he might be abusing the system right now.

In theory, 2/3 of the time we're going to win 800 chips and be sitting REALLY pretty with nearly 4700, 2x the size of two other players and we can just sit back. If we don't take this play, we're going to be 1.5x the stack of just one player, and roughly even with 2 others. Because folding totally negates our potential stack advantage, the only way I'd be tempted to fold this is if the other 2 players were just SO bad that I knew one of them would bust before me or if they were SO tight that I knew it'd be a cakewalk to steal their blinds basically every round.

We don't need to worry about the players left to act behind us?

I do for the most part agree that good players are folding a huge chunk of their range. However i've also found that the $6.50s is the loosest level for calling shoves in pokerstars. This is just a generalisation, but with lack of reads i'd say he's calling looser than "good" regs should. (That's if he really is good, It's easy as a learning player to assume someone who is tight/multitabling to be good, There are very few really good regs at the $6.50 level, most of them play way too many tables and are just bad unadjusting robots.).

I do agree that it helps our table dynamic to be ahead in chips against the other good player. Letting them get chips is just asking him to start abusing the bubble, we do not want that to happen. Is it worth shoving this if all we are going to do is "sit back and wait". I'd agree with it if the rationale was to "pick up even more chips later, and start to abuse the bubble to set up for an easy win ITM"

I'll look more into this later, but it doesn't seem like the reward is really worth the risk, especially with two players on our left. However I also assume they will not be able to call without extremely good hands and that doesn't happen very often.

Reads on the other two players would help the decision making a lot in this case.

 

[fletchdad]

LOL, my borders have shifted again.....

 

[cjatud2012]

I just find it hard to believe that our villain is opening that wide here, or that we have a ton of fold equity.

Perhaps I am just underestimating the benefits of the improved stack dynamics, but it seems like a super risky move to be making on the bubble.

 

[OzExorcist]

The weird thing about this hand I think is that the range is very polarised. JJ+ / AK and maybe AQ can take this line trying to induce a shove, steals that will fold to our shove can take it but I think just about everything else (pairs TT and lower, AJ and lower, two broadway and maybe others) shoves instead of messing around with a small raise.

Since he raised small rather than shoving I think we often get to discount the middle portion of villain's range. Does it change our thinking if this is either top 5% (which he'll never fold to a shove and we perform terribly against) or a naked steal?

 

[baudib1]

$6.50 turbo = UTG is either stupid strong (QQ+) or will raise/call it off with A8o