$6.50 NLHE STT: AKs facing 3bet OOP early

[DetroitJimmy]

First off let me say that earlier in my SNG "career" I woulda shoved all day long. Now I'm thinking it is way too early too commit so many chips pre flop. My only move is too shove but what is his range assuming decent player(you see why I say this below)? I think JJ+ AQs+ AKo+. Is this too tight of a range to put him on? How do I fair against that range, maybe 50/50 at best? I have only committed 120 chips so far so maybe just lay it down since it is so early?

It is early in the game and I have no reads other than he is playing 8+ tables. Usually players at this level playing 8+ tables are at least break even if not slighty winning players. There are a few exceptions where they go toward one extreme or the other, but for most part are SLIGHTLY winning players.

Anyway, here we go:

Full Tilt - $6+0.50 $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) (#225708783) - Blinds: 20/40 No Limit Hold'em (9 players)
Full Tilt Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: t1,505
BB: t1,530
UTG: t1,455
UTG+1: t1,590
MP Hero: t1,455
MP+1: t1,535
MP+2: t1,560
CO: t1,430
BTN: t1,440

Pre-flop: (t60) Hero is MP and dealt
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t40, Hero raises to t160, MP+1 folds, MP+2 raises to t680, 5 folds, Hero raises to t1,455 (All-in)

Whoops, right?

 

[ben_rhyno]

That's a very tight range you got him on but:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
41,095,296 games 0.076 secs 540,727,578 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.576% 28.44% 17.14% 11686743 7042716.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 54.424% 37.29% 17.14% 15323121 7042716.00 { QQ+, AQs+, AKo }

Adding JJ and AQo
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
66,779,856 games 0.122 secs 547,375,868 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.528% 41.44% 11.09% 27671499 7406760.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 47.472% 36.38% 11.09% 24294837 7406760.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

 

[fletchdad]

First off let me say that earlier in my SNG "career" I woulda shoved all day long. Now I'm thinking it is way too early too commit so many chips pre flop. I agree with this here!! My only move is too shove but what is his range assuming decent player(you see why I say this below)? I think JJ+ AQs+ AKo+. Is this too tight of a range to put him on? I would take JJ and AQ-AK OUT of his range here, if he is a decent player..How do I fair against that range, maybe 50/50 at best? I have only committed 120 chips so far so maybe just lay it down since it is so early? Maybe............

It is early in the game and I have no reads other than he is playing 8+ tables. Usually players at this level playing 8+ tables are at least break even if not slighty winning players. There are a few exceptions where they go toward one extreme or the other, but for most part are SLIGHTLY winning players.

Anyway, here we go:

Full Tilt - $6+0.50 $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) (#225708783) - Blinds: 20/40 No Limit Hold'em (9 players)
Full Tilt Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: t1,505
BB: t1,530
UTG: t1,455
UTG+1: t1,590
MP Hero: t1,455
MP+1: t1,535
MP+2: t1,560
CO: t1,430
BTN: t1,440

Pre-flop: (t60) Hero is MP and dealt
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t40, Hero raises to t160, MP+1 folds, MP+2 raises to t680, 5 folds, Hero raises to t1,455 (All-in)

Whoops, right?

OK, lets go ahead and assume he is a decent player. He is not going to want to go out this early either. So a raise from you after a limper in this position at these blinds ( does he have any reason to see your range as real wide here?) he will be putting you on maybe top 10% or better(?), (and he is right). So what is he gonna raise you with here? IMO you are looking at QQ+. Lots of time to get those 120 chips back.

I am certain he is never folding to your shove here.

I think he is 80% NOT gonna show up with JJ or less, and AK on down.

On the other hand, I have been accused of giving too mush credit to players at these stakes - which are what i play - but I am pretty much outa this hand here. Part of the reason is I try to NOT go out at this blind level........


EDIT: I think JJ and AK-AQo are calling here.........

 

[cjatud2012]

Ugh, AK threads never end well.

Anyway, I would expect that this specific villain is calling 22-JJ for set value. Flatting QQ is also possible but is is more likely that he 3-bets that. Lots of these break-even type players will also be flatting AK. Add in the fact that your raise is showing some pretty considerable strength, it's probably correct to assume that his range is pretty narrow, and that you're never getting a fold.

So against QQ+, you have ~34.5% equity. If we fold, we have 9.73% tournament equity, and if we lose, obviously, we have zero. If we shove and win, we'll have 20.1% equity. So if the equity of us shoving and winning plus the equity of us shoving and losing is greater than the equity of a fold, then we should shove.

0.345*20.1 + 0.655*0 = 6.93

(I got this calculation from Tony Guerrera's site, if you google "Tony Guerrrera killer ev ICM" you should be able to find the site)

So this is a lot worse than the equity of folding, so it seems pretty clear that, with the range we've assigned to him, we should fold. If his range were different this could be a pretty clear shove, but I don't think that range is inaccurate, given our read.

 

[ben_rhyno]

I don't think that villain setmines JJ here, I think that aswell as another AK and probably at least AKs makes up part of that range

 

[cjatud2012]

If that's the case then you have ~42.8% win probability, which translated to 8.6% tournament equity, so it's still a fold imo

Now if you include AQ, it becomes a different story.

 

[DetroitJimmy]

If he is a decent player he is not wanting to start 3bet bluffing so early is why I was thinking such tight range. If he had smaller pairs like 88 and smaller you would think he would flat trying to get other callers behind in case we hit our set.

Another thing is most regs at this level are "decent" but not good. I think many times I see such a huge 3 bet he has KK or AA trying to "protect" it by making a huge overbet.

Personally I still 3bet JJ+ in his position, but not so big. I don't want bunch of extra callers that have position on me.

If I fold here I still play a mean ass end game compared to most players at this level. If it wasn't for my end game, I could never be a positive ROI player. Still have lots of work to do on small blind/early game play.

 

[DetroitJimmy]

Part of the reason is I try to NOT go out at this blind level........

This is really the most important part of what you said I think. No sense in even taking a chance in this particular spot. No sense in taking pre-flop chances this huge. Even if I were 60% over range too early for an almost coin flip.

 

[ben_rhyno]

This is really the most important part of what you said I think. No sense in even taking a chance in this particular spot. No sense in taking pre-flop chances this huge. Even if I were 60% over range too early for an almost coin flip.

If you are a 60% favourite over his range surely you take that race at all blind levels and not pass up on profitable +EV spots

 

[cjatud2012]

Yeah, if you are 60% here you should take this. The break even point here is about 48% so if you're that far ahead then you gotta stick it in. If you're only like 50% to win then that's a lot closer, because you can usually assume you can maximize the profitable situations later on, which makes up for this small spot.

 

[cjatud2012]

To elaborate a bit on that last point, just look at your tournament equity according to ICM if you are a 60% favorite:

0.60*20.1 + 0.40*0 = 12.06

So that's 2.33% higher than our equity of folding, and that's a gain in equity that you can't refuse at pretty much any point in the tournament.

 

[ben_rhyno]

With 9 people left though is ICM even that much of a consideration? Shouldn't we be looking to take up any +EV spot at this point?

 

[cjatud2012]

They're probably pretty close to the same. But as for taking up any marginally EV spot, it can be debated both ways. If you fold and you manage to get to 6-handed or less, you're going to come across a lot of spots where you can just push and those plays are going to be massively +EV. If you let yourself get KO'd early then you never even give yourself the opportunity to make those plays. Then again, having a big stack going into short handed has its own +EV opportunities, so again it's going to be a close both ways. Generally you should make the plays early imo but sometimes if you know you're a ton better than everyone you're playing with it's probably okay to pass some thin spots.

 

[ben_rhyno]

So taking the same race in both situations is exactly the same +cEV but +$EV changes as it gets shorter handed and your skill edge becomes more of an advantage?

 

[cjatud2012]

That sounds right I'm pretty sure.