$6.50 NLHE STT: $6,50 NLHE STT: $6,50 NLHE STT: AK Bubble

[MrsFishnChips]

- $200.00/$0.00 (4 players)
Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: $1,488 VPIP: 37, PFR: 22, 3B: 0, AF: 4.0, hands: 59
BB Hero: $3,830
UTG: $4,000
BTN: $4,182 VPIP: 31, PFR: 21, 3B: 6, AF: Infinity, Hands: 61


Pre-flop: ($600) Hero is BB and dealt
UTG folds, BTN raises to $4,182 (All-in), SB folds
Hero??

 

[takethepain]

If you are not going to defend your blinds with AK, exactly what hand are you going to defend with? You have to call this and hope he hasn't woken up with a monster. I know its tempting to think mmm one more spot and i'm in the money, but thats probably what he is thinking you are thinking and thus he is most likely pushing hell of a lot wider than AK.

 

[jbbb]

- $200.00/$0.00 (4 players)
Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: $1,488 VPIP: 37, PFR: 22, 3B: 0, AF: 4.0, Hands: 59
BB Hero: $3,830
UTG: $4,000
BTN: $4,182 VPIP: 31, PFR: 21, 3B: 6, AF: Infinity, Hands: 61


Pre-flop: ($600) Hero is BB and dealt
UTG folds, BTN raises to $4,182 (All-in), SB folds
Hero??

Well SNGPT says this is a fold. I set BTN to shoving 100%, and our calling range is :
Call hands: 88+,AKs (3.5%)
Obviously the gain in equity if we win < loss of equity if we loose, but I think its more marginal. If we call and win we'll have 7000 chips and a great shot at winning.
If we call and loose we'll be out and SB will sneak into the money.
Interested to hear other peoples views on this because if we go card dead for an orbit or two, and SB doubles up, we're now in a very tricky spot and AKo would look like a bad fold.

 

[WiZZiM]

Unpaired hands suck in this spot. So unless we know villain is shoving a high proportion of Ax type hands, it's going to be a marginal call in most cases from a strictly ICM ($) point of view.

 

[takethepain]

Unpaired hands suck in this spot. So unless we know villain is shoving a high proportion of Ax type hands, it's going to be a marginal call in most cases from a strictly ICM ($) point of view.

Surely as villain has a 31/21 one can assume that he would be quite aggressive on the button and Ax type hands are well and truly in his range here?

 

[ben_rhyno]

Snap call imo

 

[cjatud2012]

Fold, 90% of the time you will make the money if you just fold, since the other guy has ~t1200 after posting, and if he goes through the blinds again he is screwed.

 

[ben_rhyno]

Didn't see the blinds were 2/400 and shorty had 3BB's, fold

 

[cjatud2012]

Didn't see the blinds were 2/400 and shorty had 3BB's, fold

phew, you scared me for a second lol.

 

[OzExorcist]

What the smart people above me said - fold because of the super short stack.

 

[takethepain]

Okay, I wonder if someone can tell me where I went wrong in my thinking. Here are the facts as I can see them

a)No-one is particularly deepstacked here. The chip leaders are down to 6.5 M or there abouts

b) Villain is very loose and would have a wide range - certainly would be pushing with a range greater than AK+

c) Losing would put us out of the SNG

d) Winning would put is in a commanding lead to take down this tourney.

e) The short stack is not dead yet. Is 2 doubles up from chip leader.

With those facts in mind It would seem that calling would typically leave us as somewhere between a 60/40 to 70/30 chance to take down his stack a high percentage of time. Occasionally we will be flipping and only extremely rarely would we be crushed.

If we fold though, we may soon find ourselves in a situation where the SS has doubled up and all of a sudden we need to start shoving with a much much weaker range then AK. I can understand folding if the SB was down to 200 chips, but at 1500 surely we still need to play aggressively while we have the cards to do so with.

 

[ben_rhyno]

The fact is that we need to shove wide but call narrow, and as we are covered, i think our calling range can only really be JJ+, even tighter than the range of 88+,AKs posted above. It's the presence of the shortstack that influences this decision, not really anything else. If the shortstack had same chips as us this is a call