$6.50 NL STT Turbo: On the bubble, facing raise from maniac

[cjatud2012]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 44/28/1.8

full tilt poker $6 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t80/t160 Blinds - 4 players - View hand 571630
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: t7600 M = 31.67
Hero (BTN): t2670 M = 11.12
SB: t950 M = 3.96
BB: t2280 M = 9.50

Pre Flop: (t240) Hero is BTN with XX
CO raises to t640, Hero ???

Villain is spewing left and right, he called my 3-bet with J7 a few hands earlier, so I probably have no fold equity. What range can I profitably push for value here? How would that range differ if SB, BB, and I all had the same effective stack?

 

[WiZZiM]

I think you have the wrong idea here.. i think your thinking in terms of CEV(chip expected value) when we should be thinking in terms of $EV(Money expected value) the first two graphs highlight that point... sure its profitable shoving here in terms of chips... but in terms of money.. you can only shove a very very tight range... as you can see...

The next graph shows when he is in SB.. your range stays the same.. and the one after shows your range of shoving into a loose player.. there i set it to any ace and some broadway.. which is 25% of hands.. here we loosen our opening up a very small fraction.. including QQ..


This again all changes once we have the same stack sizes.. we still want to shove a fairly tight range into this loose opponant..

the reason being the distict short stack present at the table... we just dont want to risk getting involved when we are comfortable chip position.. when thinking in terms of bubble play we want to categorise ourselves into "groups" of chip stacks instead of thinking in terms of # of bb's.. in this case.. were comfortable in second place... and were in no hurry to double up anytime soon.. If were the short stack.. were not comfortable and our range is going to widen due to the fact we need to make a move..

 

[cjatud2012]

Ah, I understand what you are saying. Due to ICM, we need to tighten up here. Now that I look at it a second time, this reminds me a lot of the example problems at the end of HoH Vol 3, dealing with bubble play in SNG's. He made the exact same point as you did.

Thanks more making this more clear WiZZiM.

 

[Jillychemung]

IMHO - Folks this shows what kind of info you can get out of the available tools out there. Great response WiZZiM!!!

 

[cjatud2012]

bump for a quick random question-- if villain and I are heads up, how does our $EV change? Does it equal the cEV?

 

[WiZZiM]

i was going to respond.. but im currently making a thread which should cover briefly the differance between $EV and CEV

If were ITM and heads up.. were talking about CEV.. as were locked into 2nd place... all we want to do is get the remaining chips and win.. so heads up $ev does equal CEV

on the bubble if your example.. a +CEV play like shoving AK suited.. may not be a +$EV shove in the long run..

 

[jaded848]

Sorry to revive this old thread, but I'm a bit confused about something. Why is our calling range wider in the 2nd graph (17) than it is in the first (0.9) if the villain is even more loose in the 2nd scenario?

 

[cjatud2012]

The first graph uses $EV, and the second uses cEV.

 

[jaded848]

Ahhh I see now, thank you.