$6.5 NLHE STT Turbo: short stack bubble decision

[OzExorcist]

Villain has been very active / aggressive since play got short handed. Aside from trying to avoid getting this short in the first place I'm wondering what our best action is here - obviously we're the short stack by a long way and our hand is pretty much never good but are we forced to call and just hope we have two live cards? Given villain has shoved and my chip position I figure it's almost certain we'll be only be up against him unless BB somehow wakes up with a monster.

full tilt poker $6 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t150/t300 Blinds - 4 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: t2910
CO: t5155
BTN: t4690
Hero (SB): t745

Pre Flop: (t450) Hero is SB with 6

5

1 fold, BTN raises to t4690 all in, Hero requests time to consider WWKLD...

 

[WiZZiM]

Snap, our equity is so bad that we can call with just about any decent hand with some sort of showdown value. But yeah, avoid getting this short in the first place if possible.

 

[DetroitJimmy]

Once you get this small no matter how it happens I think it's a call. Yeah you are hoping to have two live cards but you never know with aggro player raising. Still need to get it in cause if you do get doubled up you will have a good shot to take third at least. Unless these other players are horrible they will not call off their stack without a monster.

Just for the hell of it, how did you get this small. I find it happens to me most often from losing an AI hand and being returned chips. Although sometimes it is a multi table mistake. All it really takes is folding one hand you should shove or call with to send you on a downward spiral.

Even though we shouldn't get this small intentionally, it does happen from time to time and it's good for STT discussion IMO.

 

[OzExorcist]

Probably it's a result of blinds creeping up without my noticing while I'm multitabling. I do remember being card dead against a few aggressive opponents for a lot of the second half of the game but looking back now there's probably a few missed shoves. I'll post some potential ones below, thoughts appreciated:

I don't recall exactly but I suspect this one was a spot where I pressed "fold to any" before I'd seen that everyone had folded - bad habit if so, I know. BB has been pretty passive all game, limp-calling a lot preflop (though none of the bets have been shoves so far IIRC) and taking some pretty fishy lines. This is something I've definitely noticed watching the replay BTW, I'm not 100% sure I'd picked up on it in-game.

Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 7 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: t2090
UTG: t1415
UTG+1: t1275
MP: t3260
CO: t1985
BTN: t1970
Hero (SB): t1505

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is SB with T

2

6 folds

The very next hand, maybe this should have been a call instead? Villain here is the same active / aggressive one from OP.

Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 7 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: t2190
BB: t1415
UTG: t1275
UTG+1: t3260
MP: t1985
CO: t1970
Hero (BTN): t1405

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is BTN with Q

T

3 folds, CO raises to t1970 all in, Hero folds

A few more hands later. Short stack on the button is the loose-passive villain from the T2 hand.

Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: t815
SB: t2550
BB: t3260
UTG: t1985
MP: t3485
Hero (CO): t1405

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is CO with 8

9

2 folds, Hero folds

There were a bunch of hands after that where I was holding weak garbage and villains shoved ahead of me. The only other hand I think had potential for shoving was this one:

Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t150/t300 Blinds - 4 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: t2910
SB: t5305
BB: t4240
Hero (CO): t1045

Pre Flop: (t450) Hero is CO with 4

Q

Hero open folds

Two hands later we're up to the 65 hand in the OP. I can post the history for the whole game if anyone's interested / willing to take a look at it?

 

[DetroitJimmy]

I fold the first two then shove the last two.

The second hand could be a call, but I'm not sure. Don't like to call off with QT suited although would shove it for sure.

This may not be totally correct but you know that. Just the way I would play them. As for posting the whole history prolly a bit too much for me but I'm sure Wizzim is up to the challenge.

 

[Bwammo]

the 65 we've gotta call...but yeah you shouldn't have been in that situation to begin with. I'm shoving the T2o as we're below 8bb in the SB with a ton of players left...that's an any 2 shove in my books The 98o I'm shoving as well, because of the super shorty in the SB...we could lose to him and still not be out of the tournament, and 98 plays well against the field. I'm also shoving the Q4s, because we're 1/3rd the size of the stack above us...if we get folds it's HUGE and because we have a queen, we might get called by a hand that we're a favorite over.

Basically there's no real excuse for letting your stack drop that far, because you're essentially killing your tournament equity. It's far better to shove in situations where you aren't sure if you'll be called than to end up in a situation with zero chips where you've gotta call knowing you're behind. Even if you win with the 65, your stack is still half the size of the next largest opponent.

 

[Logan2]

the 65 we've gotta call...but yeah you shouldn't have been in that situation to begin with. I'm shoving the T2o as we're below 8bb in the SB with a ton of players left...that's an any 2 shove in my books The 98o I'm shoving as well, because of the super shorty in the SB...we could lose to him and still not be out of the tournament, and 98 plays well against the field. I'm also shoving the Q4s, because we're 1/3rd the size of the stack above us...if we get folds it's HUGE and because we have a queen, we might get called by a hand that we're a favorite over.

Basically there's no real excuse for letting your stack drop that far, because you're essentially killing your tournament equity. It's far better to shove in situations where you aren't sure if you'll be called than to end up in a situation with zero chips where you've gotta call knowing you're behind. Even if you win with the 65, your stack is still half the size of the next largest opponent.

Super shorty is in BTN, both blinds have us cover.

BTN: t815
SB: t2550
BB: t3260
UTG: t1985
MP: t3485
Hero (CO): t1405

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is CO with 8

9

2 folds, Hero folds

My first think was Shove, fold, fold, shove.

 

[Bwammo]

Ah, well just the fact that he is behind us is why I'm usually shoving here. Only two players that we care about with roughly 15 percent chance, each, to call us.

 

[Pascal-lf]

I'm shoving any 2 in that first hand all the time

 

[PurgatoryD]

As you pointed out, shoving on T2 would have been nice (dang that "fold to any" button!).

It might be a weakness in my own game, but I prefer initiating an all-in rather than calling one. So that QTs is a tough decision for me. He's probably shoving any pocket pair in that position, but I'm still nervous there.

Definitely shove with 89 and shove with Q4 only because your stack is so low at that point.

I've gotten myself into that kind of position as well. If you're card dead and if the big stacks are always in the pot, it's easy to get "ultra short stacked" like this. There's probably more luck than strategy involved at that point!

 

[DetroitJimmy]

the 65 we've gotta call...but yeah you shouldn't have been in that situation to begin with. I'm shoving the T2o as we're below 8bb in the SB with a ton of players left...that's an any 2 shove in my books

8BB is an any 2 shove against a passive fishy opponent in an STT? I rarely question you about anything but this seems a little too aggressive to me. There are many players left but I rarely start shoving ATC until at least down to 5BB unless I have a good read on guy. Is this a leak?

All the other hands I can see your point. I just don't like to shove T2 against a fishy player who might call me wide. If I am wrong please tell me so I can gets more aggressive.

 

[Bwammo]

Define calling wide firstly. If we believe he is calling 20 percent, that is incredibly wide...like any ace type stuff. 80 of the time he folds if that is the case. Every fold we pickup 1.5bb which is roughly 20 percent of our stack. When he does call, we're almost never worse than 30 percent to win, which would double us up. Sounds tastey to me hehe

 

[OzExorcist]

That particular villain I think is snapcalling with any ace, probably any pair, any two broadway and maybe some other Kx / Qx stuff.

Like I said though, I'm not sure I appreciated that fully in-game...

 

[DetroitJimmy]

I believe you Cody. It's just hard for me to believe I am not aggressive enough.

I think calling wide and fishy is more like 30-40% at this level though. You play mid stakes and are used to better players in general. It seems every level I move up more and more people are folding to late shoves.

Definitely remember this as I move up. Stuck playing 60c and dollar sng at Carbon for now. Sure very little real poker applies in them unfortunately.

 

[Pascal-lf]

Any 2 vs a 40% range is 60%/40% in favour of the 40% range, but consider all the dead money in the middle...

Plus even against loose passive players, I think you'd be amazed at one some of them will fold.

As for real poker - lol what is that again?

 

[WiZZiM]

Not shoving because "our opponant might call us wide", isn't a very good rationale.

As said, the T2 is likely an atc shove spot, without any solid reads, it IS an atc shove spot.

I'm likely shoving the 89, because it plays really well against calling ranges, we're not worried about the button too much, and we hurt the two blinds stacks if they call, so they have to be a little risk averse against our shove.

And the Q4s is definitely a shove no matter what.

We should HATE blinding out of tournaments, it's like the worst thing you can possibly do. Shoving lots has so many advantages, like picking up chips uncontested a huge % of the time, oh, and of course sucking out on people with our 20-30% equity if we do get called .

 

[WiZZiM]

30-40% is probably the high end of the average Jimmy. You need to think average, which is more like 25-30% at most. Remember, we have no solid reads that he will call all ins wide, so we have to assume he is calling with 20-25% on average, if he calls us wider, ok let's just note that down and try to suck out on him.