$530 NLHE MTT: Float flop shove turn vs. LAG?

[Jacki Burkhart]

I'm playing well, but I've got 3 LAGs to my right. I'm doing OK against them dragging the occasional pot by letting them bet into me and calling down with mediocre hands except the obvious problem is with 3 LAGs on your right you never get to open a pot. EVER. makes stealing very risky and expensive.

So starting stack was 10,000 and I'm at about 11,000 average stack is about 22,000.

Blinds are 200/400/50 so starting pot = 1,050 and my M= 11

I really need to start getting my fair share of the blinds, and soon. the 2 LAGs to my direct right are aware that I am occasionally re-stealing light and I expect one of them will play back at me soon if I preflop 3 bet them again.

It folds to the Cutoff, who is a young, talented LAG who makes lots of small bets and small raises. I've studied him carefully all day and come to realize he generally won't lay a hand down until the turn or river. He can be counted on for firing 2 or 3 barrels if he smells weakness, and he can make a tough lay down even if it seems like he is pot committed. He has about 28k. He makes it 850.

I am on the button and look down at the old me would have 3bet a LAG here, but I thought "hold up. what's your hurry? You have the button. you have a hand that rates to be ahead. You suspect he might 4bet light if you 3bet. You can count on him to bet the flop and turn. Why not take a flop in position and see what develops...see if you can take the pot away later, a much bigger pot" I flat the 850. both blinds fold.

Pot contains 2750

flop is

ok, not bad I've got a gutshot and 2 overs. vs. this LAG's range I really kinda like my hand.

he leads out for 1,400. This bet means absolutely nothing. He will Cbet with 100% of his range. I decide to flat with the intention of making my move on the turn. Pretty much any turn card except maybe an Ace or Ten I will bet if he checks, or raise all in if he bets. The Ten I will slow play. The Ace I will have to take a read.

so the turn brings a pot contains 4,550

he thinks for a minute then checks....I decide this pot is big enough to take down now. Since there are no real draws present I am representing real strength and he probably has to fold unless he has a set, in which case I'm drawing to the 4 hopefully live tens. If he DOES decide to look me up with an AJ type hand I've still got 10 outs. If he looks me up with an over pair I'm in bad shape, but I've got 4 outs. I ship it for about 8,800...so clearly a big overbet.

what do we think of this line?

too much risk to take without a hand? Bet smaller on turn?

 

[WiZZiM]

when he checks, he is either check/giving up, or check/shoving. By shoving you take the latter away from him, which is kinda good. but for me it's pretty risky, and i doubt he folds a jack to that overbet. For me, he's either checking to give up/ checking to pot control, meaning he has a pair, or he's going sneaky, expecting you to bet and he can make an easy jam over it.

i check back here and judge his bet on the river if he makes it. fwiw, i expect to be ahead on this turn a lot, the river is unlikely to change that and if we're behind now, we get a free shot at hitting a gutshot, or pair our hand, nice!

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

when he checks, he is either check/giving up, or check/shoving. By shoving you take the latter away from him, which is kinda good. but for me it's pretty risky, and i doubt he folds a jack to that overbet. For me, he's either checking to give up/ checking to pot control, meaning he has a pair, or he's going sneaky, expecting you to bet and he can make an easy jam over it.

i check back here and judge his bet on the river if he makes it. fwiw, i expect to be ahead on this turn a lot, the river is unlikely to change that and if we're behind now, we get a free shot at hitting a gutshot, or pair our hand, nice!

I agree with you that the check means he is either giving up or pot controlling. I guess that is why I thought the big bet would be good. He liked to keep pots small until he had something; and I knew he would read me for strength with this line. I did not feel it was too likely that he was getting tricky with a monster....but if he wanted to get frisky with bottom pair or something, I took the check-raise option away from him....

I'll spoil it and tell you he tank folded face up.

I was initially very pleased with myself as I dragged the pot, but then I realized how close I came to total disaster and I started thinking about other ways I could have played this hand. I may have stumbled upon the only line that actually kept me in the tournament...but I'm not sure it was the best way to play the hand.