$5 NLHE STT: Low M vs reg 5xBB preflop raise

[Jillychemung]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 15/11/11

poker stars $5.00+$0.50 No Limit Hold'em 18man SNG - t75/t150 Blinds

BTN: t3830 25.53 BBs
SB: t1942 12.95 BBs
BB: t3053 20.35 BBs
UTG: t3120 20.80 BBs
Hero (MP): t1505 10.03 BBs
CO: t2180 14.53 BBs

Pre Flop: (t225) Hero is MP with T♥ T♣
UTG raises to t750, Hero ?


12 players still in, I have 212 hands on UTG

Given the big raise by UTG I had his range pretty tight to QQ-77, shove or fold??

 

[cjatud2012]

*sigh* fold, can't imagine him raising worse than TT here, MAYBE nines, but would he really raise 5x with nines?

Either way he's raising like he wants to get it in, I wouldn't mess with that when you still have 10bb's.

 

[baudib1]

i would fold but if your read is really QQ-77 (i assume you have a reason for this and incidentally, this is a pretty wide range, and why would he have 77 and not AQ/AK) shoving can't be too bad.

 

[Jillychemung]

if your read is really QQ-77 (i assume you have a reason for this and incidentally, this is a pretty wide range, and why would he have 77 and not AQ/AK) shoving can't be too bad.

I had notes on him where I had seen these large preflop bets with middle PP before and hadn't seen any with big Aces.

 

[Bwammo]

Yep definitely a fold here. Even if you haven't "seen" a big ace do this before, you can bet your arse he'd be doing it with one. He's never folding here. If he has a PP there's a greater chance it's a higher PP than yours than below, and if he has overcards we're forcing a coinflip.

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

Not really. If his range is 77-QQ there's a greater chance he has a LOWER PP then hero's. My initial assumption often with these over raises UTG is AK/AQ, but if over 200+ hands he's never had AK/AQ with these over raises, its fair to assume he wouldn't have one here, surely? If his range really is 77-QQ, 60% of the time you're an 80% favourite here.

 

[Bwammo]

Since there are 169 possible hand combinations, it's totally reasonable to assume within 212 hands you haven't seen your opponent play AK/AQ at all, let alone seen him play it from UTG.

As for the pairs, why are you discounting AA/KK? Unless you have prior evidence of him playing said hands from UTG in a different manner, there's not enough reason to believe he won't do that same raise with them. Many players experience fear of flopping, especially from UTG.