$5 NLHE MTT Rebuy: QQ on the bubble

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fundiver199

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We are at the exact bubble of a 6-max R+A tournament. 13 players left on 3 tables, 12 get paid. Min cash is around 35$, around 380$ for the winner. Dont remember stack sizes at the other two tables, but nobody were running on fumes. Relevant HUD-stats:

UTG: VPIP 50 / PFR 21 over 380 hands
CO: VPIP 23 / PFR 13 / 3-bet 4 over 311 hands

888Poker, $4.55 + $0.45 - Hold'em No Limit - 900/1,800 (225 ante) - 5 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 36,479 (20 bb)
CO: 112,051 (62 bb)
BU (Hero): 48,919 (27 bb)
SB: 39,109 (22 bb)
BB: 122,541 (68 bb)

Pre-Flop: (3,825) Hero is BTN with Q♥ Q♠
UTG raises to 3,600, CO 3-bets to 9,663, BU (Hero)?

What is our decision here: Jam, call or fold? If we call, what is our plan, if someone else jam on us?
 
pandaboy

pandaboy

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For me, more important to get itm, when double up. I prefer to fold here and waiting itm, and only then do action. Pfr 13, looks like ak, aa, kk. Call is possible, but not must have to be. I'd rather fold it, 13 left.
 
shinedown.45

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For me, more important to get itm, when double up. I prefer to fold here and waiting itm, and only then do action. Pfr 13, looks like ak, aa, kk. Call is possible, but not must have to be. I'd rather fold it, 13 left.
I would agree if this was a satellite but this is a great opportunity to triple up.
Only two other hands dominate you and an additional one you're flipping against.
I don't know too many poker players that are folding QQ on a 6-max table.
 
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300HPGOD

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This can come down to unique bankroll situations but there is no doubt the correct poker move here is to jam this. I know you are a very good player by your posts and have also seen your stats so you should not be worrying about min cashing here and should be going for it. Crappy players like myself I could make a case for talking myself into folding here but in the end it is not the correct move. We should be striving to make the correct moves as much as possible and jamming is correct in this situation. We should also factor in that other players know it is the bubble too so the cutoff could be 3 betting lighter here than normal knowing that if they can isolate UTG then they can ICM screw them during the hand.
 
marianexbj

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Here it depends on how important it is to charge for you as to fold QQ in that situation, for me considering that you are playing with proper bank management it is the perfect opportunity to go double up and go through the tournament.
 
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fundiver199

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Thanks for the input. I agree, that the correct decision here is to jam. I plugged it into ICMizer with the small caveat, that I told the program, it was 10 players left and 9 places paying, since ICMizer dont know this exact payout structure on 888. And ICMizer does in fact have QQ as a jam, but its somewhat more close, that people might tend to think. AKs is also a very marginal call, but AKo and JJ are clear folds.

I actually did end up folding though. I had played around 10 MTTs without cashing in a single, so I got cought up a little bit in short term thinking. Min-cashing this one would at least cut my session losses from around 100$ to 65$. Not the right way of thinking perhaps, but hey I am only human :)

It turned out to be a lucky mistake, because what happened after me was, that SB jammed, UTG folded, and CO called. SB had KK, CO had 88, and the board ran out 5 bricks. So if I had gotten it in, as I should, I would have gotten ambushed and lost most of my stack. Instead I not only cashed but actually made it to the final 3, where we made a deal, that allowed me to take home 303$. So what for the longest time had looked like a losing session ended up as a winning one instead :)
 
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eetenor

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Thanks for the input. I agree, that the correct decision here is to jam. I plugged it into ICMizer with the small caveat, that I told the program, it was 10 players left and 9 places paying, since ICMizer dont know this exact payout structure on 888. And ICMizer does in fact have QQ as a jam, but its somewhat more close, that people might tend to think. AKs is also a very marginal call, but AKo and JJ are clear folds.

I actually did end up folding though. I had played around 10 MTTs without cashing in a single, so I got cought up a little bit in short term thinking. Min-cashing this one would at least cut my session losses from around 100$ to 65$. Not the right way of thinking perhaps, but hey I am only human :)

It turned out to be a lucky mistake, because what happened after me was, that SB jammed, UTG folded, and CO called. SB had KK, CO had 88, and the board ran out 5 bricks. So if I had gotten it in, as I should, I would have gotten ambushed and lost most of my stack. Instead I not only cashed but actually made it to the final 3, where we made a deal, that allowed me to take home 303$. So what for the longest time had looked like a losing session ended up as a winning one instead :)


Thank U 4 Posting

There is more to tournament poker success than raw equity. Staying alive in a tournament has value as you discovered. So folding the QQ is not just about min cashing it also has the added benefit of allowing us to continue to battle. 27bb's still has skill equity value- a much harder metric to interpret.

Great job getting third.

:):)
 
ZenGreen

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JAM or FOLD.. Of course on the bubble too. But im not going to let the bubble make me fold here.

I saw the results you posted and you would of scooped the 2nd pot over the SB, still lose half you stack but ...
 
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fundiver199

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There is more to tournament poker success than raw equity. Staying alive in a tournament has value as you discovered. So folding the QQ is not just about min cashing it also has the added benefit of allowing us to continue to battle. 27bb's still has skill equity value- a much harder metric to interpret.

That is definitely a good point. If there are several bad players left in a field of this size, we should tend to steer away from spots, where we are likely going to have to show down the best hand to win in order to survive in the tournament. And if I 4-bet jam against the chip leader in this spot, I dont expect a ton of fold equity. I wont say, I had a big skill edge against this particular field, but its definitely something to consider in general.

Great job getting third.

:):)


Just for the record I did not take third place. I made it to the final 3, and then we made a deal, which 888 allow in most of their normal MTTs. The remaining price pool was then split according to ICM, and since I was in fact the slight chip leader, I took home somewhere between second and first place money.

I often look to make deals 3-handed or heads up, if the remaining players are solid regs. It reduce variance and allow me to end, what has often already been a long session, so I can proceed with other activities. There are arguments for or against this, but for me I dont feel, my skill edge lies in spending up to another hour to battle it out with two solid regs to potentially win another 75$.
 
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eetenor

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That is definitely a good point. If there are several bad players left in a field of this size, we should tend to steer away from spots, where we are likely going to have to show down the best hand to win in order to survive in the tournament. And if I 4-bet jam against the chip leader in this spot, I dont expect a ton of fold equity. I wont say, I had a big skill edge against this particular field, but its definitely something to consider in general.




Just for the record I did not take third place. I made it to the final 3, and then we made a deal, which 888 allow in most of their normal MTTs. The remaining price pool was then split according to ICM, and since I was in fact the slight chip leader, I took home somewhere between second and first place money.

I often look to make deals 3-handed or heads up, if the remaining players are solid regs. It reduce variance and allow me to end, what has often already been a long session, so I can proceed with other activities. There are arguments for or against this, but for me I dont feel, my skill edge lies in spending up to another hour to battle it out with two solid regs to potentially win another 75$.


Thank U 4 Responding

Whoops must have misread the post.

It is good that you shared your thinking on deal making at the end of sessions. Your reasoning is strong and it may help others to think through these type of situations.

:)
 
theANMATOR

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Thanks for the input. I agree, that the correct decision here is to jam. I plugged it into ICMizer with the small caveat, that I told the program, it was 10 players left and 9 places paying, since ICMizer dont know this exact payout structure on 888. And ICMizer does in fact have QQ as a jam, but its somewhat more close, that people might tend to think. AKs is also a very marginal call, but AKo and JJ are clear folds.

I actually did end up folding though. I had played around 10 MTTs without cashing in a single, so I got cought up a little bit in short term thinking. Min-cashing this one would at least cut my session losses from around 100$ to 65$. Not the right way of thinking perhaps, but hey I am only human :)

It turned out to be a lucky mistake, because what happened after me was, that SB jammed, UTG folded, and CO called. SB had KK, CO had 88, and the board ran out 5 bricks. So if I had gotten it in, as I should, I would have gotten ambushed and lost most of my stack. Instead I not only cashed but actually made it to the final 3, where we made a deal, that allowed me to take home 303$. So what for the longest time had looked like a losing session ended up as a winning one instead :)

I'm posting late again - as usual. :)

Nice read/fold FD. Difficult lay-down.

I'm interested in everyone saying this is a fold or jam spot. Is this largely because making a call here would constitute roughly more than 25% of our current stack?

If yes - how does ICM sway this decision - possibly we should be tighter with ICM considerations - so this is an easy binary decision - and a call here is completely off the table?

I'm always looking to simplify spots similar to this - and one of the simple rules I use is to make a binary decision if the action before me constitutes 25% of my chip stack.
Simple rules like this are not always straight forward when ICM is involved.

Thanks for the follow on information. I'm always looking to improve and gain knowledge - and alternate/better views in specific spots like this.
 
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