$5.50 NLHE STT: Pushing A8o from the BTN

[nabmom]

So since I've been worrying about being nitty when I play, this hand I marked because I'm not sure it was a smart move to make. Is this overly aggressive with a middling hand or the right move on the button?

I have a total of 47 hands on everyone.

Merge - $5+$0.50|<> NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 1,747.00 (Stats: 4/5)
UTG: 1,395.00
CO: 2,496.00
Hero (BTN): 2,515.00
SB: 5,347.00 (Stats: 17/9)

SB posts SB 100.00, BB posts BB 200.00

Pre Flop: (pot: 300.00) Hero has A♦ 8♥

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2,515.00 and is all-in, fold, fold

 

[BlueNowhere]

Fine/std.

 

[twoturntablez]

If you were in the sb/bb, and this happens to you, with what hands are you calling?

Its a great steal, but could be interpreted as a move, so if you are a thinking player giving this a 50/50 chance of a move or a hand that wont get raise folded what do you need to look down at before making the call?

 

[nabmom]

As a generalization, I'm calling a shove only with something along the lines of AQ+/88-99+. Probably on the looser of that range if I'm shorter stacked.

If you were in the sb/bb, and this happens to you, with what hands are you calling?

Its a great steal, but could be interpreted as a move, so if you are a thinking player giving this a 50/50 chance of a move or a hand that wont get raise folded what do you need to look down at before making the call?

 

[MasterOfDisaster]

Fold

I think it is loose, with ICM see the other 3 stacks at the table, no antes in play and I am not an SNG player at all, but winning 300 chips vs winning $0 in this spot just looks bad.

 

[BlueNowhere]

Fold

I think it is loose, with ICM see the other 3 stacks at the table, no antes in play and I am not an SNG player at all, but winning 300 chips vs winning $0 in this spot just looks bad.

I'll do calculations later but pretty sure it's a shove.

Is payout 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 deb?

 

[cardriverx]

deffo not a fold -- the ship is fine, I'm sure one could argue to min-raise/fold to shove because both of the blinds are fairly tight.

 

[WiZZiM]

deffo not a fold -- the ship is fine, I'm sure one could argue to min-raise/fold to shove because both of the blinds are fairly tight.

Yeah i was thinking the latter too, but the problem is that the SB is chipped up. We really have no idea what he might do with that stack, and getting flatted sucks realistically. So our options are really only shove/fold.

This is actually pretty close i think, it's probably a marginally good shove. Things like antes, when the blinds are going up etc will help this decision a lot more. Plus also specific reads on the blinds and how the SB got his stack and when he got it would really help here too.

WIthout that, shoving can't be that bad.

 

[nabmom]

I'll do calculations later but pretty sure it's a shove.

Is payout 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 deb?

Yes.

 

[BlueNowhere]

Yea I really don't like min-raising for reasons Wizzim mentioned. People do stupid stuff like flat OOP with short stacks. Even if flatting is slightly shoving is easier and if you multi-table you can sacrifice some ev (in spots where it's close) in some spots imo.

To justify what I mean I'll use a HU example. 22-44 25bb deep it is best to just open shove. 55+ are min-raises. However when I'm 4-tabling HU I open shove 55, it's not optimal but it's slight ev I'm willing to sacrifice since I'm going to struggle post-flop when I have several decisions to make at any given moment. As long as $/hr is higher you can sacrifice slight ev in marginal spots (such as this imo).

 

[JDAWG5]

I would shove in this spot as well. You gotta ship hands like this if you wanna win the tourney.

 

[-Phil Ivey27]

I disagree. Definitely a raise to 500 and then a fold to shove. I hate shoving here and then big stack picks up 88 and decides to call? I think you can pick better spots and you're risking your whole sng life on a marginal play.

In my history of sng's i've found this play to hurt you more in the long run.

What does it tell you if you plug it into SNG wizard, anyone?

 

[Loonbat]

This is an Ax spot for shipping with 15 BBs or less.

 

[-Phil Ivey27]

15 bb's or less!? I have to strongly agree on that one. You're showing no acknowledgement towards blind levels or anything?

 

[Loonbat]

15 bb's or less!? I have to strongly agree on that one. You're showing no acknowledgement towards blind levels or anything?

Why would I acknowledge blind levels? This is the reason several hand converters convert to BBs and m-values. 150K at 5000/10000 or 1500 at 50/100, I'm shipping Ax from this position.

You start running poker stove simulations and you'll find this spot is profitable for A5+ for up through 25 BBs (if memory serves correctly). This, however, is pure +cEV and disregards ICM considerations.

 

[BlueNowhere]

This is an Ax spot for shipping with 15 BBs or less.

A2o is a fold so don't agree with this sentence at all.

 

[WiZZiM]

This, however, is pure +cEV and disregards ICM considerations.

This is a 9 man SNG, where $ev is applicable until we reach HU.


This is a close shove because when we get looked up, we are generally crushed. When you get in spots like this it's sometimes better to shove hands like 10 9 s rather than A8o because when we get called our 10 9 plays a lot better and we are dominated a lot less.

I'm fine with raising to like 450 here if we have a solid grasp on what the blinds are doing/capable of. Like if the SB has had his stack a while and doesn't seem to be going crazy and the BB still is yet to play a hand, then i'd be raising here close to 80% of the time(not shoving, raising). But yeah, it really depends on in game reads/feelings.

 

[A2345Razz]

I hate a raise fold with 12.5BB that just cannot be right and we are inviting reshoves by both players given their chip positions and our (hopefully TAGy stats.

I always say villain and image dependent but it would have to be a really nitty pair of blinds who definitely couldnt reship to a steal here without premiums(a rarity these days) in order for me to see raising off 20% of our stack and then folding to be a viable option....that just isnt great poker usually.