$5.50 NLHE MTT Turbo: Is this a fold?? ICM

[Jakobsladder]

On these stack depths, even though I generally use a min raise strategy, I would size up a bit in this spot. We are playing 40-50bb effective against a couple players, so I prefer sizing up against them. I also prefer a slightly bigger sizing because I don't want the 8bb BB player to flat me too often. If we min-raise the bb can flat most of his range and play pretty perfectly against us post bc his stack is so small. If we size up a bit, the BB will be making a mistake if he defends too wide whereas he will be correct to call vs. a min raise.

That being said, I happily call off JJ here. Our exact range is a bit tricky to figure out, since I don't know what % of hands you open in this spot and I don't have any info on the button player. I put this format into ICMizer2 and simplified it to shorter stacks (but bb amounts are the same). Here were my results:


Nash Ranges:




https://gyazo.com/40050777cb71b45447819cb866cbc7b0


This has you open raising 41% (22+,A2+,K2s+,K9o+,Q5s+,Q9o+,J6s+,J9o+,T6s+,T9o,96s+,98o,85s+,75s+,65s,54s)
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and him 3b'ing 11% (66+,A8s+,A9o+,KJs+).
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So you can call with: 99+, AQo+
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If you think he is a bit tighter with 3betting, then I would go with TT+, AK....if he's really tight in this spot, like maybe 3betting 99+, AQo+, then probably JJ+, AK.


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[1dkp0k3r]

It is a clear fold. The chips that you have are way too valuable to lose them at this point in the tournament. Keeping your chip lead will allow you to continue to apply pressure to the middle stacks, the ones that have the most ICM pressure.

Against one of the two smaller stacks it would be a clear call.​

 

[quant1986]

Close one, believe I would call with QQ+ or AKo but not JJ given his nitty image and ICM consideration especially you are the chip leader.