$5.5 PL O8: PLO8 bubble decision

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Sohmurr

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The button isn't folding for another 271, he's committed to this hand. His range here probably includes alot of weak Aces with low draws, so I'm not worried about his hand too much. The SB called, and had been making alot of calls since getting shorthanded, but hadn't invested too much before the flop on any given hand. He's got me covered several times over, but I still don't see him calling if I raise pot here. Top 3 make the money.

My image here is definitely loose-aggressive. I've been making alot of small-ball type raises (min raising and up to 2.5BB preflop, and making 1/2 pot bets post flop) and it's definitely been working. I got in a confrontation w/ the small blind earlier (when he still had alot of chips) and check-called along, and he backdoored a flush to beat me. Since then I've been making position plays for the blinds. So if I raise pot (which will effectively commit me, but leave me with 90 chips against a call) it should signal a strong hand and get the small blind to fold (I hope).

full tilt poker Game #10873734914: Cardschat $150 money added (79617079), Table 3 - 200/400 - Pot Limit Omaha H/L
Seat 3: cutoff (5,740)
Seat 4: button (1,671)
Seat 5: small blind (21,399)
Seat 6: Sohmurr (big blind) (5,690)
small blind posts the small blind of 200
Sohmurr posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sohmurr [Kc 3c 9d Kd]
cutoff folds
button raises to 1,400
small blind has 15 seconds left to act
small blind calls 1,200
Sohmurr has 15 seconds left to act
Sohmurr ??

One obvious disadvantage is the fact I can't make a low, not even a bad one. Is calling an option? The button only has 271 left if I call, so he's not getting away from his hand. But I can get out on the flop if the small blind catches well. Because the small blind has such an incredible chip lead is he likely to call if I raise pot? Should I fold? If I fold I still have chips and could slip into the money. But since I'm playing to win, my thought process is more along the lines of "If I raise the small blind out of this hand and win, I have more chips and a better chance at winning." I really can't figure out what should have been done here. Please, help!
 
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switch0723

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uhhh snap fold? and it shouldnt even be a question, you are behind any Axxx hand in terms of equity and your hand doesn't play well on any flop unless you flop a set or a flush on high boards
 
shinedown.45

shinedown.45

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I would have to agree with switch on this.
I don't play to much O8 but I would only be making this call if my holdings were something like double suited connectors.
 
bubbasbestbabe

bubbasbestbabe

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Fold. Let the small blind take the short stack out. You accomplish your goal and move into the money by doing nothing. This might be a hand to raise in PLO but you are taking too big a chance with this in PLO/8.
 
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Sohmurr

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That's mostly what I expected to hear. One of my weaknesses in no limit and pot limit tournaments is judging situations like this where you're on the bubble or are risking your stack on one play (or both, like this hand). Well, here is how the rest of the hand played out. I decided to raise pot because I was almost certain the small blind would fold. He didn't and he won the high hand, knocking me out on the bubble while the button took the low hand and survived to the money. Like I said earlier, my motivation for considering (and eventually) raising pot was that the small blind had so many chips that taking down this pot would make it easier to overcome his lead in the money, but it's a bit faulty logic I guess. Hopefully this is an error I'll never make again. Thanks for the feedback on the hand.

button calls 271, and is all in
small blind has 15 seconds left to act
small blind has requested TIME
small blind calls 4,200
*** FLOP *** [6s 9c 8d]
small blind bets 400
Sohmurr calls 90, and is all in
small blind shows [Th 2d 4h Qd]
Sohmurr shows [Kc 3c 9d Kd]
button shows [5d 6d 7d Ad]
Uncalled bet of 310 returned to small blind
*** TURN *** [6s 9c 8d] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [6s 9c 8d 4s] [Jc]
small blind shows a straight, Queen high, for high
Sohmurr shows a pair of Kings, for high
small blind wins the side pot (8,038) with a straight, Queen high
button shows a straight, Nine high, for high and 8,6,5,4,A, for low
small blind wins the high main pot (2,507) with a straight, Queen high
button wins the low main pot (2,506) with 8,6,5,4,A
Sohmurr stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 13,051 Main pot 5,013. Side pot 8,038. | Rake 0
Board: [6s 9c 8d 4s Jc]
Seat 3: cutoff didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: button showed [5d 6d 7d Ad] and won (2,506) with HI: a straight, Nine high; LO: 8,6,5,4,A
Seat 5: small blind showed [Th 2d 4h Qd] and won (10,545) with HI: a straight, Queen high
Seat 6: Sohmurr (big blind) showed [Kc 3c 9d Kd] and lost with HI: a pair of Kings
 
S93

S93

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Just to show you how crappy your equity is cause u dont have a low draw.
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 658008 enumerated boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Kc 3c Kd 9d 126312 237839 420000 169 0 0 0 0.277
Qd Th 4h 2h 120240 198201 459638 169 151512 66420 486 0.327
Ad 7d 6d 5d 151630 221799 436209 0 260904 133341 486 0.396
 
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