$5.5 NL HE MTT: Rivering a straight on the bubble

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fundiver199

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Hand is from a 5,5$ "deep" MTT on Stars, and its right on the money bubble. 18 players left, 17 places pay. Opponent was a typical LAG playing VPIP 28 / FPR 20 over 259 hands. How do you play the turn and river?

pokerstars, $4.90 + $0.60 - Hold'em No Limit - 900/1,800 (225 ante) - 9 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 43,979 (24 bb)
UTG+1: 17,355 (10 bb)
MP: 81,810 (45 bb)
MP+1: 50,616 (28 bb)
LP (Hero): 146,041 (81 bb)
CO: 70,469 (39 bb)
BU: 90,357 (50 bb)
SB: 243,056 (135 bb)
BB: 43,901 (24 bb)

Pre-Flop: (4,725) Hero is LP with 9♦ A♥
4 players fold, Hero raises to 4,500, CO calls 4,500, 1 fold, SB calls 3,600, 1 fold

Flop: (17,325) 6♦ A♦ 8♥ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 6,930, CO calls 6,930, SB folds

Turn: (31,185) T♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets 14,657, Hero calls 14,657

River: (60,499) 7♣ (2 players)
Hero?
 
3

300HPGOD

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I dont think I would check this turn since I would fear villain (without knowing anything about them) would check behind often. That gives them a free card to a diamond on river which they could have or at least rep and put pressure on us. We have the 9 blocker so I would not be worried about 97 and since 2 aces are on the board/in our hand I think Ax is less likely. If you check here solely to get worse hands to bluff and then call I think that is fine but I just dont like giving a free card here. There is some worry about a bigger Ax and I am guessing that is why you checked here but I still think I would bet and then evaluate if we were raised which is what I think a bigger Ax would do here. Check calling puts us in the same spot as with a bigger Ax unless of course we hit a miracle river card... which happens. I also dont think villain would bet here with two diamonds (unless its Ax) as they would take the free card but I could be wrong on that, just what I would be thinking.

On the river I would tend to think villain has some pair or pure air since they bet turn because I just think their draws might peel a free card. We look like we have two diamonds more than villain does at this point and would be worried if we check villain might just take showdown value after we called turn so I would no check this river. There is value to be made here a lot of the time. It comes down to a decision between what we think about villain as are they a player who might call half their stack or so but not an all in cause of bubble dynamics or are they someone that is not bubble afraid and if we bet small it makes us look like we are fishing for a call so we would then need to make our bet look bluffy by just jamming. You posted their stats but that does not tell us how they feel about bubbles. I think without knowing anything then I lean towards making my hand look like diamonds and "bluffing" with a jam with 4 to a straight coming on the board.
 
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feisas7991

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mostly check otf and looking for ways to gtfo on later streets
ott prob can fold too, but as played prob too weak from our side to fold it from our side as played
otr mostly leading with small sizing vs none maniacs in micros
Hope this helps and Good Luck!
 
puzzlefish

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Ah cold calls from cutoff - my favourite.

I think the turn was played fine. You do open yourself up to getting bluffed and put in a hard spot by checking, but your ace kicker isn't that great and I think keeping the pot as small as possible is best.

On the river, I would probably check call unless it's a jam. There's enough missed draws to induce some bluffs. I have a feeling you are going to end up in a tough spot one way or another with that kicker though.
 
WrongUsername

WrongUsername

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small bet on the river trying to get value from Ax
 
puzzlefish

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Oh, and I didn't even look closely enough to notice the straight in the title of the post and on the board. Check raise on the river. Let them bluff.
 
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