$5.00 NL HE STT: I think the fold was right thing here

[tzuriel]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

STT

Buy-in

5.00

Currency

$

I wanted to see a flop with my pair so I called this 3bet while pretty deep. I was really just set-mining. My plan was to fold to most aggression if I missed and this was a terrible flop since I have no club. Was this a correct fold? Not too many hands with this V but he had been playing pretty well and not really out of line. I think it's the right fold but wanted some feedback. I have plenty of chips left and there will be better spots.

NL Holdem $5+$0.50 (50.00BB)
HJ (34.5BBs)
CO (38.7BBs) [VPIP: 28.9% | PFR: 26.3% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 39]
BTN (36.7BBs)
SB (30.7BBs)
BB (68.4BBs)
HERO (89.2BBs)
EP (30.3BBs)
MP (31.5BBs)

Dealt to Hero: 7♠ 7♥

HERO Raises To 2.8BBs, EP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To 8.6BBs, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls 5.8BBs

Hero SPR on Flop: [1.56 effective]
Flop (19.3BBs): 9♣ 4♣ 2♣
HERO Checks, CO Bets 19.3BBs (Rem. Stack: 10.9BBs), HERO Folds

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
You were not deep, because CO was the effective stack, and he only had 38,7BB. For that reason, and because you opened UTG, I prefer folding to the 3-bet. You should not be opening any pocket pair lower than 77 from EP, and its always ok to fold the bottom of your range to a 3-bet.

Flop
Clear fold. Even with 7c I would still fold, since you are still essentially dead to any overpair with a club or a flopped flush.

 

[eetenor]

The HUD stats suggest fold preflop because this V is going to bet 90% of flops so we cannot expect to get to showdown and the stats suggest the V would make this pot size bet as well---We do not call 77 in this spot with one hope- that we make a set---we also want to be able to call flop to get to showdown or be able to use the board to turn our pair into a bluff---none of which we could do vs this player type most often----IP we might call but again this V bets pot here not optimal for us--- we want to target players who would bet 40% pot or less on flop with our 3 bet calls IP to win with multiple strategies.

If we do call 3 bets vs this V it is because we assume they will over play their hand post flop by pot betting a wide unconnected range on this board for pot like KQHH or 3s3c etc here which means we are getting it all-in on this flop. We would want data to support this supposition--- we would have to have seen a hand that indicates they do this but the numbers suggest this is possible.

 

[tzuriel]

"because this V is going to bet 90% of flops"
How can you tell that from the stats?

 

[eetenor]

"because this V is going to bet 90% of flops"
How can you tell that from the stats?

It is a small sample but the VPIP and PFR are both high with little gap so that indicates overall aggression-the gap is the key even solid lags have more of a gap than that--- add in 3 bet pot which solvers suggest 80% c-bet and we can assume this V could easily c-bet 90%. We could be wrong but in poker we have to use the data we have.

 

[fundiver199]

We dont need HUD stats to fold to that 3-bet, since its the standard play. On the countrary we need a really good reason to call a 3-bet out of position with a hand like 77. Unless we flop a set, its really difficult to get to showdown, because how comfortable are we ever going to be calling down with usually multible overcards on the board? Even if we see a good flop like 832, then the turn might be a high card like a K, and if the Villain bet again, we are completely in the dark and just hoping, he is still bluffing.

Also as eetenor say, your HUD-sample is large enough to conclude, that this opponent is a LAG, so you should not expect him to make it easy for you after the flop. Which mean, that even when you have the best hand, you are often going to get bluffed out of the pot, because once again you just cant call him down with a hand this bad. In this case you actually saw a somewhat decent flop with only one low overcard, which he most likely did not have, and you still could not call, which kind of illustrate the problem.

 

[tzuriel]

Thanks for explaining things you guys