$4 NLHE MTT: JJ after shove and isolating raise

[jbbb]

Should I be shoving over the top here? Also what does the MP1 raise to 8,800 represent, a medium strength hand he's trying to isolate against the wide opener, or betting for value with a decent hand?

Do you think I have fold equity here over the inital raiser?


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 2.25 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 50 Ante (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t12570)
Hero (MP3) (t18029)
CO (t8190)
Button (t16286)
SB (t7682)
BB (t10040)
UTG (t4028)
UTG+1 (t10619)
MP1 (t27786)

Hero's M: 17.17

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J

, J

UTG bets t3978 (All-In), 1 fold, MP1 raises to t8800, 6 folds

Flop: (t9006) 3

, 9

, 8

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t9006) K

(2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t9006) 6

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t9006

Thanks

 

[baudib1]

reads on villain? In game I am not sure I could do it but this is probably a fold, I think I'd shove over QQ+

 

[jbbb]

I can't remember it was pretty long ago, but I found it in a file of hands i need to review. I suppose stage of the tourny needs to be taken into account too which I didn't note but by the looks of it I was well above average and so maybe clashing with the big stack wasn't such a good idea.

 

[MrEpic94]

would definitely call the 4k shove if folded too. But with the shove over the top JJ is a fold. Would be shipping KK/AA and QQ is read dependent on the over bettor.

I dont think having above 'average stack' is that important, rather your effective BB is more important. Her you have about 30 effective BB and really have no need to get involved in such a marginal spot.

 

[Bwammo]

This decision would change for me depending on where I'm at in the tournament...if still miles from the money I'm going to probably get all in with JJ here. His range for isolation is usually going to be wide enough for JJ to be more than 60% equity against it.

This reraise sizing you're facing is a minreraise + 3xbb...typically that's someone who doesn't necessarily want to play a flop and just wants to isolate against the all-in. If his raise was more of a minraise + 1xbb, then there's a lot more reason for concern.

 

[jbbb]

Ok cheers lads, appreciate the comments

Out of interest, do you think I have fold equity if I shove?
Is it a situation where I only fold out hands that I beat?

 

[baudib1]

BTW I don't think it's terrible to shove pre but without a read this type of action is QQ+ a lot.

 

[jbbb]

BTW I don't think it's terrible to shove pre but without a read this type of action is QQ+ a lot.

Thats exactly what I was thinking at the time. Even AQ, AK, KQ im flipping for most my stack, i've heard in tournaments it's not a good move to call if you think you're flipping as better spots usually apear.

 

[baudib1]

no that's not true.

with tons of dead money, flipping is good.

 

[Bwammo]

The question that needs to be answered is...What is the range of the average player with more chips than god, who is making a serious attempt to isolate against the short all in, going to have?

I'd put my money, on average without any other reads, on 77-88+, ATs+, AJo+ and maybe KQs. Hands we're ahead of in this range are 77-TT, ATs, AJo, AJs, and we're coinflipping against AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo, KQs, and JJ. This only leaves QQ-AA as hands we are dominated by. Roughly 6 hands we like, 6 hands we're indifferent against, and 3 hands we don't like. I like.

*edit*

The sizing of his raise would also indicate less likelihood of him having the 3 hands that we don't like. AA/KK are typically more likely to invite other players to join them by making it a smaller reraise or just flatting instead.

 

[Pascal-lf]

MP1 did make a small reraise instead of shoving?

 

[baudib1]

I'm now leaning toward a shove on this.

 

[MrEpic94]

Ok cheers lads, appreciate the comments

Out of interest, do you think I have fold equity if I shove?
Is it a situation where I only fold out hands that I beat?

this is a really interesting point, i dont know myself but others please discuss!

 

[Bwammo]

Honestly, I'd say if there's any fold equity at all it's around 5-10% lol. A guy with that large of a stack is rarely going to back down to a 10kish reraise.

 

[cardriverx]

i think the raise to 8800 shows wanting to ISO all-in player without risking whole stack. I think he could have something like 99, AJ.