$4 NLHE MTT: $4.40 180 SnG - AKo on final 3 tables

[Lofwyr]

Poker Stars $4.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t400/t800 Blinds + t75 - 8 players - View hand 1117640
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: t7863 M = 4.37
UTG+1: t52250 M = 29.03
MP1: t9051 M = 5.03
MP2: t24258 M = 13.48
CO: t10054 M = 5.59
BTN: t10256 M = 5.70
Hero (SB): t13451 M = 7.47
BB: t22147 M = 12.30

Pre Flop: (t1800) Hero is SB with K

A

4 folds, CO raises to t9979 all in, BTN raises to t10181 all in, Hero ???

CO has been taggy (15/10) and BTN has been nitty (8/8) over reasonable sample sizes. Tournament had collapsed from 4 tables to 3 this hand.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Personally I think if we're sitting on a 25-30ish bb stack we can find a fold here.. but with ~14bb's I'm getting it in all day long here.

 

[ben_rhyno]

Call and win a flip v JJ/QQ or crush his AQ

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

I couldn't call here. We're calling for a flip at best & I think with ICM in mind this is a bad call.

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

I should add with those stats (8/8) we're probably dominated a lot. I don't hate a call but I personally wouldn't.

 

[Poker Orifice]

I should add with those stats (8/8) we're probably dominated a lot. I don't hate a call but I personally wouldn't.

So you figure that BTN's range is limited to AA/KK here ?? with 12bb's? Say it isn't so.
Not sure how many hands HERO has on players (for the 8/8), but I'll often read in HH posts, "villain's a ??/??" etc. etc.,... but this is (IMO) so often taken out of context for the situation (ie. maybe the majority of our hands on villain were at 10/20 > 30/60 blind levels.. or whatever??).

 

[Poker Orifice]

I should add with those stats (8/8) we're probably dominated a lot. I don't hate a call but I personally wouldn't.

Just curious (I like to know what others are thinking).. what would you put BTN's range at in this spot?
Suggesting that we're often dominated.... but wouldn't you put BTN on 66+/AJs+ (or somewhere there abouts).

 

[Shufflin]

Even if one of them has a lower pair and the other Ax, it makes it that much less likely that we hit our ace, correct? (We lose one of our outs) Against one player, I'd risk the flip, but I tend to think we're taking the worst of it here...

 

[cjatud2012]

If there is still 3 tables left then I wouldn't worry too much about ICM. We only need ~30% equity for this to be profitable, which off the top of my head sounds good, but I haven't Pokerstoved it so I may be wrong.

 

[onemorechance]

If there is still 3 tables left then I wouldn't worry too much about ICM. We only need ~30% equity for this to be profitable, which off the top of my head sounds good, but I haven't Pokerstoved it so I may be wrong.

All of this. I just can't fold AK here

 

[Lofwyr]

For those speakin' of stoving it...I just did a quick check using these ranges:
CO - 22+, ATs+, AJo+, KJs+ - ~30.9%
BTN - JJ+, AK - ~43.4%
Hero - AKo - ~25.7%

Those are damn tight ranges though, maybe I could open up CO and BTN a little each. I had ~130 hands on CO and ~65 hands on BTN all from the same tournament starting about middle/mid-late. Not a ton of hands, but enough to have a decent bead on their typical preflop stuff.

edit: redone ranges slightly
CO - 22+, A8s+, A2s, ATo+, KJs+, KQo - ~29.4%
BTN - 99+, AJs+, AQo+ - ~~38.4%
Hero - AKo - ~32.2%

Any other ranges&results people would care to test out would be cool.

 

[Marginal]

Easy call IMO. Im pretty sure we are getting over 30% equity here and have the chance of having a very nice stack to start off the late stages.

 

[cjatud2012]

Easy call IMO. Im pretty sure we are getting over 30% equity here and have the chance of having a very nice stack to start off the late stages.

very good point too, if we are chip leader heading into the part of the tournament where ICM matters, we can make some crucially +$EV plays by abusing our opponents. We wouldn't have those opportunities if we don't have the big stack.

 

[Bwammo]

I'm almost always folding here unless I can lose the pot and still have 5-8 adjusted bb left or if we know at least one of the people all in are complete turds

the 30% equity is to break absolutely even not to turn a nice profit...if this were an mtt with a super steep payout the call becomes more profitable but not quite in a 180 man sng