$4.40 NLHE MTT: KQ in the BB vs button raise

[MrEpic94]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 14/11/1.85

villian has Fold to 3bet of 75% and att to steal of 38%

standard shove?

PokerStars - $4+$0.40|1500/3000 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
BTN: 62,676.00
SB: 37,164.00
Hero (BB): 54,188.00
UTG: 40,384.00
MP: 22,388.00
CO: 53,200.00
BTN posts ante 300.00, SB posts ante 300.00, Hero posts ante 300.00, UTG posts ante 300.00, MP posts ante 300.00, CO posts ante 300.00, SB posts SB 1,500.00, Hero posts BB 3,000.00
Pre Flop: (6300.00) Hero has K:club: Q:diamond:
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 7,500.00, fold, Hero raises to 53,888.00 and is all-in, BTN calls 46,388.00
Flop: (111076.00, 2 players) T:heart: A:club: 9:heart:
Turn: (111076.00, 2 players) J:diamond:
River: (111076.00, 2 players) T:club:
Hero shows K:club: Q:diamond: (Straight, Ace High) (PreFlop 9%, Flop 16%, Turn 97%)
BTN shows K:heart: K:diamond: (Two Pair, Kings and Tens) (PreFlop 91%, Flop 84%, Turn 3%)
Hero wins 111,076.00

 

[MrEpic94]

bumpity?

 

[WiZZiM]

This is the final table, right?

I dunno, it seems ovely risky to pick up a decent amount of chips, but those chips don't really change our equity position all that much.

Can we raise to like 15k here and fold to a shove? If he's folding to 3bets often, it's unlikely he will flat, so we still get folds from a lot of hands, but he will 4bet shove with the top of his range. I hate 3bet/folding though it's pretty horrible.

Honestly i have no idea what is the best option here, i suspect shoving isn't the best option. I'm looking to play these things soon so i have a bit of learning to do.

 

[straytfrush]

Your reraise was too large, as wizzim said a raise somewhere in the neighborhood of 16-20BBs would be better. If he reraises you from there he almost always will have you beat. With a read like that it's worth the risk that he actually has something, I would go for the reraise, but don't risk your whole stack doing it.

 

[dufferdevon]

You are six handed, still 3 more until the big money. You are going up against one of the two stacks that can cripple you. Ace high is ahead of you right now.

I think I wait for a better spot. I hope you took this down after a fortunate result.

 

[MrEpic94]

1st is the only decent money in these. They are really top heavy.

Yes it was final table.

I really hate 3betting and folding to 4bets hence the 3 bet shove.
if we commit 30% of our stack with the 3 bet im not sure how we can fold to a 4 bet with 2:1?

 

[IamRude]

Your reraise was too large, as wizzim said a raise somewhere in the neighborhood of 16-20BBs would be better. If he reraises you from there he almost always will have you beat. With a read like that it's worth the risk that he actually has something, I would go for the reraise, but don't risk your whole stack doing it.

I feel we would be way to short to bet/fold 16-20bbs. It's an option but I really dont like b/f and leaving ourselves with a short stack.

this has to work like 80% of the time to be profitable? its a marginal spot, but yea i actually think its pretty standard if we arent doing it to often.

btw, sick month your having Mr. Epic.

 

[MrEpic94]

btw, EPIC month your having Mr. Epic.

FYP

and i agree with the what you say about 3bet folding leaving us way to short.

 

[IamRude]

FYP

and i agree with the what you say about 3bet folding leaving us way to short.

I mean, if the tables soft and you feel you can outplay them for first, then make it like 24k and b/f. But I assume your mass multitabling? so that might be a hard thing to analyze

let me restate what I said before then:
standard would be to fold in this spot, but shoving can be profitable in the long run

I dont know if that makes any sense?

just cant wait till i have enough time to play these again. i won the first 4.40 i ever played, and final tabled the second one. so soft.

havent had time at all this month to play, but the times i have played this month i havent had enough time to really get in my zone.

 

[Tangerine 53]

1st is the only decent money in these. They are really top heavy.

Yes it was final table.

I really hate 3betting and folding to 4bets hence the 3 bet shove.
if we commit 30% of our stack with the 3 bet im not sure how we can fold to a 4 bet with 2:1?

Maybe but on the range that he's 4 betting you with (and taking into consideration his stats) it's very likely that you're behind. Folding a 3 bet still leaves you with a significant amount of equity in the tourney. If, as you say, the payout structure is top end loaded then maybe a shove and we take our chances but otherwise I b/f here.

 

[MrEpic94]

I think IamRude pretty much summed it up. Altough folding much more often is probably better.

let me restate what I said before then:
standard would be to fold in this spot, but shoving can be profitable in the long run

 

[Lofwyr]

Is there any merit to flatting? KQo just seems like one of the very few hands I'd might consider seeing a flop here with. In that limbo zone of hand strength to this sort of thing.

Are the $4.40's softer than the $2.20's? Rather...are the regular speed MTSNGs softer than the Turbos?

 

[MrEpic94]

im not sure about softer. But lets you play more consistently as you get more play in them.

 

[IamRude]

Is there any merit to flatting? KQo just seems like one of the very few hands I'd might consider seeing a flop here with. In that limbo zone of hand strength to this sort of thing.

Are the $4.40's softer than the $2.20's? Rather...are the regular speed MTSNGs softer than the Turbos?

The 2.20 has so many donks so its a little harder to manipulate. The thing with the 4.40 is that everyone's so tight at the end, cause i guess they rarely make it that far, but it makes them so exploitable.

If you want to be creative, instead of 3betting like others have said, you can be creative here by flatting and then donk betting using the same amount of chips.

I don't know if its as profitable as shoving, and really depends on how well you can read your villains range. I don't really like playing here out of position with the chips we have remaining.

 

[MrEpic94]

flatting OOP and donk betting is almost more effective than 3 betting light in the $4's

 

[ManicLombax]

Yeah I don't like any option here much. Folding seems too nitty, you're ahead of his button range even though his stats say he's tight-ish. Flatting is not so great since you're oop with a marginal hand. 3-betting you pretty much have to call a shove unless you're sure he's only 4-betting KK+ (which is unlikely). Shoving is probably best, but as IAmRude says it has to work pretty often to be profitable. Probably not 80% though since sometimes he'll call with a hand that doesn't have you crushed and you'll win.

I guess I like shoving best.

 

[MrEpic94]

SNGwizz says its a fold.


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[ManicLombax]

I believe he's opening 18.5%. You think he's calling 12.5%? Seems pretty wide to me considering he'll essentially be out if he calls and loses. 12.5% includes things like JTs, KJo, ATo. I'm probably nittier than this guy but I'm not calling your shove that wide unless I have a read that you are a complete re-stealing maniac.

 

[WiZZiM]

Pretty sure he's raising wider than 18%. Our edge does not need to be so high in this situation either.

His calling range is the only thing i'm iffy on, and also his opening range could be slightly wider, which might make this into a thin shove.

Basically, this is going to be either a slightly good shove, or a horribly losing one.

 

[Lofwyr]

You have him tracked at 38% attempt to steal...why are your SNG models using 18.5% and 28% opens? I'd say 38% is a very conservative steal range for any kind of competent player too.

 

[WiZZiM]

You have him tracked at 38% attempt to steal...why are your SNG models using 18.5% and 28% opens? I'd say 38% is a very conservative steal range for any kind of competent player too.

Not sure if you were talking about mine, but it's set to 27% and 8% call.

And yeah i agree with you, but i generally set the opening range tighter than what it might actually be. Still, if you went into SNG wiz and played around with that opening range, it wouldn't ever become a very good shove, it might be only slightly positive. It's due to the fact that chips gained are worth much less. So i think the lowest he would be raising here is something like 27% and it's just bad, opening it up, it might become slightly positive.