My 3bet is called for big pot - what's my plan?

[slycbnew]

$27.50 PS MTT, 1944 players, payouts to 160 places or so, around 250 players left. I'm well above average stack.

MP2, 28/15, has taken three uncontested pots with preflop raises in the last two orbits, and has recently shown down on his call of a preflop raise a speculative hand (that lost). I decided that he was raising non-premium hands and took a stab at the pot with my own non-premium hand, planning to fold to a 4bet/all-in - my M is still around 10 after such a fold. Unfortunately, he called.

What do you think of the 3bet preflop (I'm starting to play with light pf 3bets after reading c9's archived thread on 3bets - very cool stuff), what action should I take on the flop, and what is my plan for the turn? How is my image affected by this line (I'm about 19/14 at this point)? Thanks

Stacks:
* UTG with 89440
* UTG+1 with 109538
* MP1 with 115480
* MP2 with 122004
* MP3 with 76148
* CO with 37555
* BTN with 186610
* SB with 58528
* BB with 131621

Blinds: 2000/4000 ante 400
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to BB:J♦ K♣
* * Sklansky group 5
Preflop:
* * 3 players fold.
* * MP2 raises 7604 to 11604
* * 4 players fold.
* * Hero raises 18396 to 30000
* * MP2 calls [18396]
* * Total folds this street: 7
* * Potsize: 62000
Flop:
* * Q♦ J♥ 7♣
* * Hero ???

 

[c9h13no3]

What do you think of the 3bet preflop (I'm starting to play with light pf 3bets after reading c9's archived thread on 3bets - very cool stuff)

Well, 3-betting in cash games is a lot different from 3-betting in tournaments, in that in a cash game, our stack is 100bb's deep. Here, yours is about 35. So in terms of stack to pot ratio on the flop, this is closer to a 4-bet pot when playing cash games. And in 4-bet pots, we should be stacking pretty wide.

First, I don't really like the 3-bet. KJ is dominated by a LOT of hands, and the original raiser is raising from middle position, so he's going to have a hand fairly often.

As played, the argument is mostly between shoving the flop, or check/calling. Check/folding is probably bad given how much is in the middle already. I think I prefer check/calling as it gives villain the opportunity to bluff at it, and if he has a hand like AK we do have some blockers to his outs. But I don't think the difference between the two is all that great.

 

[nirvana123]

Well try Cbet since he may have called with something suck as J10s.

 

[Jillychemung]

First, I don't really like the 3-bet. KJ is dominated by a LOT of hands, and the original raiser is raising from middle position, so he's going to have a hand fairly often.

Ditto this.

Turn - I prefer the check/call to a shove here with only a ST8 draw on the board then shove any K,J,7-2

 

[Yeti]

I'm raising, and seeing how it plays. If he's raised the last few turns in a row, I find it unlikely that he's going to be raising with fantastic hands preflop. Hence, I'm betting out honestly believing KJ to have the best of it, but hoping for a fold - prepared to fold myself if he reraises.

 

[slycbnew]

Cool, just the responses I was hoping for! Thanks everyone!

I agree, KJo sucks, and shouldn't be played as a real hand in normal situations, esp. from lousy position...

Let me put this in the context of Irexes recent thread "[$22 rebuy] Shove with T4s" - it's this kind of thinking I'm trying to incorporate in my game. I've had some success with it against likely steal attempts - raises from cutoff, button, and SB, when I'm in either the button, SB or BB, where Villain appeared to be LAGgy - but hadn't tried it against EP/MP. I was genuinely surprised to get stuck in this situation, since I fully expected Villain to either fold or shove ("duh" for not mapping out my strategy for this contingency).

So, I had two basic questions that I was looking for feedback on - the first was whether it made sense to do this against EP/MP - I think I've gotten good feedback on this (generally, yuck, he's too likely to actually have a hand that dominates KJo - I'd be interested in any further discussion justifying this move against EP/MP - also interested in whether the stack sizes being roughly equal influences anyone's thinking) - and what to do now that I'm stuck in this awful situation, OOP against the guy who called.

Here was my basic question at the flop - what are the chances that the guy called with a real hand? Why didn't he shove preflop if he had a real hand? Is he being trappy, or trying to figure out if I have a real hand, or is he trying to see if he hit?

Check/call makes a lot of sense to me regardless of the answer to these questions - completely agree that check/fold is idiotic here - while betting out seems to assume that my original read of villain being light is correct (I think a good sized cbet of 30K to 40K is going to pot commit me regardless of his action, if I'm not already committed).

Reasonable summary? Further thoughts? Thanks again

 

[c9h13no3]

while betting out seems to assume that my original read of villain being light is correct

If villain is calling your 3-bet with a bad hand, you should check the flop. Do you see why?

 

[Jillychemung]

There is 51K in the pot when MP2 raises and he has 110K left so a shove is, IMHO, too big of an overbet. But before the flop the pot is 65K and yur stack is 100K and MP2 is 92K plus MP2 will have position on you. So MP2 has a very easy decision on the flop, if he thinks he has you beat or represent that he has you beat he can easily get his stack AI w/o it looking like an overbet or he can get away and still have enough left to come back with.

 

[slycbnew]

When not to cbet is a horrible weakness of mine - I'm guessing the answer is pot control or to induce a bluff?

Pot control I wouldn't need further clarification on, but I would if the answer is to induce a bluff? Especially since I'm bluffing to a large extent myself (i.e., if he does bet, I'm pretty much going to have to call or shove whatever he bets without knowing whether he's bluffing)?

Fully conceivable to me that I whiffed twice here , looking forward to your reply

 

[c9h13no3]

When not to cbet is a horrible weakness of mine - I'm guessing the answer is pot control or to induce a bluff?

We've got like half our stack in the middle, so pot control probably ain't it .

I would if the answer is to induce a bluff? Especially since I'm bluffing to a large extent myself (i.e., if he does bet, I'm pretty much going to have to call or shove whatever he bets without knowing whether he's bluffing)?

Well if you bet, that commits you. So if he has pocket 2's, or 89, he pretty much has to fold. However, if you check to him, he will bet some of these hands as a bluff. So lets do a little poker stove exercise:

You shove the flop, and villain calls with AQ, KQ, QJs, QTs, AJ, KJ, JTs, and AA he was trapping with.

Our equity against this range is: 24%

Now, instead, we check to him, and go all in if he bets. Lets assume he bets all the same hands he'd call a bet with, but now he'll bet AT, AK, 88, 99, 9Ts as bluffs.

Our equity against this range is: 50%

Sure, some of the time he'll check back a hand and suckout, but there aren't a lot of draws on the board, so that's a minor consideration. We need him to bluff at this board, because that way we can legitimately stack off with 2nd pair without being a huge underdog.

Now if we had AQ, and there were a lot of weaker hands that he'd call a shove with, then betting is obviously the best move, since we'd like to protect the big equity advantage we have in the pot.

 

[marble]

The way the villain played this hand is similar to the way i might of played AA or even KK, so be cautious. Since you 3bet preflop you surely will fire a c-bet putting you probably committed on the flop.

 

[slycbnew]

That's what I love about this forum - I posted a situation, and got back great replies that will help my game in ways I didn't think to ask about, in addition to answering the actual questions!

Thanks c9, crystal clear - that one's going on a sticky on the monitor - and I'm going to do some boning up this weekend on cbet strategies in general . You, Jilly, and everyone showed me how I got in this awful mess - Jilly clearly describes how truly bad this situation is for me OOP... and the explanation of equity is perfect.

FWIW, I got horribly lucky here and knew it. I cbet the flop for 40K - if I wasn't pot committed before, I sure am now - and villain called. That convinced me that Marble was spot on and I was facing AA, KK, or a set (in retrospect, I'm not sure the call indicates this - but I'm being results based). The turn was the Th, giving me an OESD - I shoved, but was resigned to my fate that I had totally screwed up the hand and ended my tourney life on a really dumb 3bet. Villain of course is also pot committed and called. River was a blank, and Villain showed 8h7h, for a pair of 7's/fd/gutshot on the turn.

I felt vindicated in my read, but terrible about everything else. So, knowing that I played the hand poorly, I wanted some ways to think through the situation - thanks again!

 

[widowmaker89]

Well if his calling range includes 78 then this is not as big of an issue as you think it is. I am at work so cant stove it but I would say you can add hands like 79, 9T, JT, QT, and the likes to his calling range.

But yes listen to the advice here as you probably had no idea these types of hands were in his range, just make a note that you can vbet this guy all day. Most villians would fold that hand and maybe bet if checked to so overall a check is better, but if you know a guy is calling with anything then betting out is fine as he may check behind a lot here with his poor made hands.

 

[JoeDi]

I would check call depending on the raise and how confident you feel that you can read him.. You dont want to commit your whole tournament to a hand you dont feel good about.. But you probably have a good chance even if he didnt hit that he is going to take a stab at it.. Check .. Get a read and then decide..