Jason Bralli
Rock Star
Bronze Level
F
fundiver199
Legend
Loyaler
Preflop
With stacks this deep you can open a bit larger like 3BB, but 2,5BB is also fine. Facing the 3-bet its kind of close. I would definitely fold AJo, but AJs seem like an ok call.
Flop
Dont see any reason to do anything other than check-call. If you check-raise, you reopen the betting for him and might end up getting it in pretty bad against hands like AK or KQs.
Turn
You made the flush, and I think, there are merits to leading out here to not allow him to check back. It also sets it up, so you can easily jam the river. Yes its kind of obvious, but if he overfold to this line, then you can just balance it out with some bluffs like 99 with 9 of spades.
River
I think, you need to bet for value now, and your target will be hands like AQ, AJ, KQs, KJs, so something like half pot seems fine. As played he is clearly representing a boat, but even so I think, you need to make the call here. First off breaking down his range, I dont think, he has 44 or 66, because those hands would have been taken for a setmine preflop at least 90% of the time. I also dont think, he has K6 or K4, because those hands would have been folded at least 90% of the time. Finally I dont think, KK check back the turn and then overbet jam the river, and its only one combo anyway.
Which leaves us with AA and AK, and those hands make complete sense for him to have and play like this. But you block both those hands, so he can only have 4 combos of AK and 1 combo of AA for a total of 5 realistic nut combos, that he might play like this. Which mean that if you can find just 3-4 combos of something else, he is overplaying or turning into a bluff, then calling is profitable.
And because this is a 33$ MTT, I really dont think, we can assume, an unknown opponent (at least unknown to me since you gave no info) never bluff in a situation like this. By checking to him again on the river, you have massively underrepped your hand, and he should also understand, that the A on the river is a much better card for his range, and that he can represent AA and AK by overbetting.
So I think, you need to assume, that he can be turning something into a bluff, or that he might be going for max value with trips or a worse flush thinking, that your range is capped. And for that reason you need to have hands, that check-call the river, and there is no better candidate for that than the nut flush. Maybe you could also have 44 or 66, which are nominally better hands, but since he either have AA, AK or a bluff/overplay, its better to call with AX of spades rather than 44 or 66.
If you dont call with the nut flush, then you never call at all, and this is highly problematic, if the opponent is capable of bluffing. You are setting yourself up to be massively exploited, and this is not something, you want to be doing in mid and high stakes games. Maybe you can fold here in a 2,2$ MTT against a known nit, but in this spot you have to make the call and then just chuck it up to a cooler, if he happen to have it this time.
With stacks this deep you can open a bit larger like 3BB, but 2,5BB is also fine. Facing the 3-bet its kind of close. I would definitely fold AJo, but AJs seem like an ok call.
Flop
Dont see any reason to do anything other than check-call. If you check-raise, you reopen the betting for him and might end up getting it in pretty bad against hands like AK or KQs.
Turn
You made the flush, and I think, there are merits to leading out here to not allow him to check back. It also sets it up, so you can easily jam the river. Yes its kind of obvious, but if he overfold to this line, then you can just balance it out with some bluffs like 99 with 9 of spades.
River
I think, you need to bet for value now, and your target will be hands like AQ, AJ, KQs, KJs, so something like half pot seems fine. As played he is clearly representing a boat, but even so I think, you need to make the call here. First off breaking down his range, I dont think, he has 44 or 66, because those hands would have been taken for a setmine preflop at least 90% of the time. I also dont think, he has K6 or K4, because those hands would have been folded at least 90% of the time. Finally I dont think, KK check back the turn and then overbet jam the river, and its only one combo anyway.
Which leaves us with AA and AK, and those hands make complete sense for him to have and play like this. But you block both those hands, so he can only have 4 combos of AK and 1 combo of AA for a total of 5 realistic nut combos, that he might play like this. Which mean that if you can find just 3-4 combos of something else, he is overplaying or turning into a bluff, then calling is profitable.
And because this is a 33$ MTT, I really dont think, we can assume, an unknown opponent (at least unknown to me since you gave no info) never bluff in a situation like this. By checking to him again on the river, you have massively underrepped your hand, and he should also understand, that the A on the river is a much better card for his range, and that he can represent AA and AK by overbetting.
So I think, you need to assume, that he can be turning something into a bluff, or that he might be going for max value with trips or a worse flush thinking, that your range is capped. And for that reason you need to have hands, that check-call the river, and there is no better candidate for that than the nut flush. Maybe you could also have 44 or 66, which are nominally better hands, but since he either have AA, AK or a bluff/overplay, its better to call with AX of spades rather than 44 or 66.
If you dont call with the nut flush, then you never call at all, and this is highly problematic, if the opponent is capable of bluffing. You are setting yourself up to be massively exploited, and this is not something, you want to be doing in mid and high stakes games. Maybe you can fold here in a 2,2$ MTT against a known nit, but in this spot you have to make the call and then just chuck it up to a cooler, if he happen to have it this time.
dallam
Legend
Loyaler
I definitely think you can be against a boat, and its not connected to 44 or 66 because of the pre-reraise. However - this over-bet is just guessing your hand perfectly.
Which can lead us to some questions. If opp has AA can he think that you have the 4th Ace with the flush-draw? So it would be amazing to still predict your hand in this case. So the only hand is AK. Which can bust you like this, but you need to have the exact A to call this off. What I'm trying to say, if its a max-value bet, this hand is the only hand to call him, maybe sets. So he either has a perfect read on you or turned his hand somehow into a bluff - both are pretty breathtaking.
I have to say its a call too. Your river check may grab into KQs or KJs to a shove-bluff or 910s can get there too. On the other side, I see only AK here. KK maybe. Shove is just a little bit too strong for me, if he not guessed your hand correct.
+ a video about some similar patterns I saw few days ago (which was a bluff). Action starts 16:46
Which can lead us to some questions. If opp has AA can he think that you have the 4th Ace with the flush-draw? So it would be amazing to still predict your hand in this case. So the only hand is AK. Which can bust you like this, but you need to have the exact A to call this off. What I'm trying to say, if its a max-value bet, this hand is the only hand to call him, maybe sets. So he either has a perfect read on you or turned his hand somehow into a bluff - both are pretty breathtaking.
I have to say its a call too. Your river check may grab into KQs or KJs to a shove-bluff or 910s can get there too. On the other side, I see only AK here. KK maybe. Shove is just a little bit too strong for me, if he not guessed your hand correct.
+ a video about some similar patterns I saw few days ago (which was a bluff). Action starts 16:46
eetenor
Legend
Platinum Level
Thank you for posting.
I agree with Fundiver we want to be leading this turn holding this hand- I think it is a 100% of the time lead here as the V nuts is really only KK.
If I check turn then I lead river small for value we do not want another check back and then decide if the V shoves. As we have so many flushes and the SPR for V is not large enough to let them liberally bluff.
GTO has us not having AK but standard play means many players will have it and lead river with it. That means it works as a bluff blocker to lead as well.
As played V can have AA AK and KK for shoves as they are making it look bluffy and you have to have top of range Kx--flushes-small fulls to call anyway so they can target that part of your range only.
Hope this helps
Jason Bralli
Rock Star
Bronze Level
I didn't play many hands against him, but the few I saw were always top of the range!
when I received the 3bet, I already put him in the strong ranges, he would have: KK, AK, or AA
If it was a cheaper tournament, I would even think that a bluff would fit.
But we're talking about a 33 dollar SCOOP, I don't believe he would be bluffing, as all the hands that were being played so far were value hands.
Anyway, thanks for the tips and experience, unfortunately the deck didn't help me and I ended up falling further.
others are scheduled during the month!
GL
when I received the 3bet, I already put him in the strong ranges, he would have: KK, AK, or AA
If it was a cheaper tournament, I would even think that a bluff would fit.
But we're talking about a 33 dollar SCOOP, I don't believe he would be bluffing, as all the hands that were being played so far were value hands.
Anyway, thanks for the tips and experience, unfortunately the deck didn't help me and I ended up falling further.
others are scheduled during the month!
GL
F
fundiver199
Legend
Loyaler
Did you have HUD-data supporting this, or was it just something, you guessed? A standard 3-betting range is this spot is something like maybe 8% of hands, and KK+, AK is only 2,5% of hands, so this is a pretty massive assumption to make. And moreover if he is really 3-betting this narrow, then why are you calling him out of position with AJs? This is never going to be a profitable call, unless you dominate some of his 3-betting range like ATs, A5s, KJs, QJs etc.
dallam
Legend
Loyaler
Sorry, I put a wrong read here. I closed out AA for a wrong reason, but it can attack your set or flush, making a donk-bet on flop and going max value on river.
But I don't agree with your thinking line that all the bets hiding value-bets only: especially in that case. It was a well controlled party from villain, when you made a check-call on flop and nothing upcoming actions. Other flushes or sets can make a value here, but its risky you would show an even stronger combination - that's why this shove looking both strong but protecting as well. So now we beating the flushes and the sets, only boats or the quads get there - which according to the 3bet pre, they are more likely AA, KK or AK. And the situation is that if these monster, unbeatable hands are going for value, can they raise over the pot such like this, and I'm leaning to a call here to caught his bluffs or simply loose by a perfectly hitten set-up. >> Anyway, we lost only 10K from a 94K stack, and from this perspective and the actions going on, you can't be blamed either way, but its a tight fold we can agree on.
But I don't agree with your thinking line that all the bets hiding value-bets only: especially in that case. It was a well controlled party from villain, when you made a check-call on flop and nothing upcoming actions. Other flushes or sets can make a value here, but its risky you would show an even stronger combination - that's why this shove looking both strong but protecting as well. So now we beating the flushes and the sets, only boats or the quads get there - which according to the 3bet pre, they are more likely AA, KK or AK. And the situation is that if these monster, unbeatable hands are going for value, can they raise over the pot such like this, and I'm leaning to a call here to caught his bluffs or simply loose by a perfectly hitten set-up. >> Anyway, we lost only 10K from a 94K stack, and from this perspective and the actions going on, you can't be blamed either way, but its a tight fold we can agree on.
Jason Bralli
Rock Star
Bronze Level
that's exactly the point!
How far should I put the tournament at risk, of which I would still have more than 90bb left over for other spots?
Is it true that he didn't have a weak hand, why call an all in to try to "hunt" a bluff?
It seems a bit illogical to me!
GL