This is a discussion on $33 NLHE MTT: $33$ NLHE MTT: $33$ NLHE MTT: Interesting all in spot 3 handed late (call or fold?) within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; Ignition Hand #4374599752: HOLDEM Tournament #M-20210824193623 TBL#13, Turbo- Level 29 (12500/25000) [MVS] - 2021-08-24 23:11:17 UTC
Table Info: Version: 1, Type: MVS, Stakes: 12,500-25,000, Table: 000303B2-0,
Seat 140: Big Blind [ME] (699,645 in chips)
Seat 205: Dealer (635,764 in chips)
Seat 211: Small Blind (794,591 in chips)
Big Blind [ME] : Ante chip 2,500
Dealer : Ante chip 2,500
Small Blind : Ante chip 2,500
Small Blind : Small Blind 12,500
Big Blind [ME] : Big Blind 25,000
*** HOLE CARDS *** HERO [ME] : Card dealt to a spot [Ah Qd]
Small Blind : Card dealt to a spot (XX)
Dealer : Calls 25,000
Small Blind : Calls 12,500
Big Blind [ME] : Raises 105,000 to 130,000
Dealer : Calls 105,000
Small Blind : All-in(raise) 767,091 to 792,091 HERO [ME] ?
Please note I do not have player tendencies much as this is a random pool on ignition. I have not seen this limp rereaise before from villain and I presume the button calling range to be weak. with 260 dead already from me and button I think this spot is close. However, I am not well versed in ICM perhaps this a punt due to that. It feels as if I am near the top of my range in this example and if I were to fold am I really only calling this type of line with AK JJ+? They payouts were roughly 600, 820, 1.1k . Villain has played relatively well up to this point with good aggressive play.
I would call. Its a rather bizarre line from SB, and I would expect his most common holding to be a small or medium pocket pair, which was not good enough to raise, when the action first got to him, and he also cant call your raise to setmine, because stacks are to shallow for that. So instead he limp-jam hoping, he has some fold equity, and that he is against a hand like AQ if called.
I expect to see a very low frequenzy of AK and QQ+ here, and if we can more or less rule those hands out, then calling can never be that bad, since as you say, there is a substantial overlay in this pot. As the final piece of the puzzle its not like, BTN is substantially shorter than you. So even if you fold here, you still have a significant risk of finishing in third place. If BTN was running on fumes, there would be more incentive to avoid a big confrontation with SB.