$33 NLHE Deep Stacked: Steal attempt flatted, post flop play help

[cjay142]

$33 NL HE Deep Stacked: Steal attempt flatted, post flop play help

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 56/24/2

From the MiniFTOPS 10, already ITM, hadn't really noticed much about the villain, I had 40 hands on him but didn't remember much about him even though his stats 56 / 24 / 2 are pretty loose.

Anyways I open raise in the CO for 2.5x which I like, what I'm not sure about is my flop play, should I be c-betting here or taking a free card as he is pretty loose and capable of ck/r me?

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HAND 1
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1,000/2,000 blinds, 250 ante No Limit Hold'em Tourney, 9 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details


MP1: 23,907 (12 bb)
MP2: 211,148 (105.6 bb)
MP3: 34,701 (17.4 bb)
Hero (CO): 89,888 (44.9 bb)
BTN: 114,158 (57.1 bb)
SB: 35,693 (17.8 bb)
BB: 39,469 (19.7 bb)
UTG+1: 112,914 (56.5 bb)
UTG+2: 23,469 (11.7 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with

5 folds, Hero raises to 5,000, 2 folds, BB calls 3,000

Flop: (20,000)

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero ...?

edit: pot on flop should be more like 1350

 

[Jillychemung]

2nd pair + gutshot + position vs a loose player with ST8+FD+ST8FD board. IMHO check behind here and control the pot size. The turn card will really decide how you can play this hand. None of your outs here are going to be clean, so get to showdown cheaply.

 

[shinedown.45]

2nd pair + gutshot + position vs a loose player with ST8+FD+ST8FD board. IMHO check behind here and control the pot size. The turn card will really decide how you can play this hand. None of your outs here are going to be clean, so get to showdown cheaply.

We most likely have the best hand right now, do we really want to give villian a free card?
I would put in a 3/4 to pot size bet here just to see where we are in the hand.

 

[Jillychemung]

Why inflate the pot now with 2 cards to come when opponent is so loose that the chances of him floating a c-bet here is >99% ? If we are ahead, we are barely ahead and there are sooo many bad cards that can come on the turn that will force us to give up on this hand.

 

[Makwa]

This is a nasty spot to be in... his AF is only 2 so a decent bet might take it, there is also an argument for small ball play (check behind)... what to do depends on your read on the guy, and you dont have much... I think I would go Shine's route and push him with a bet here.

 

[vpb0i]

if he checks, means he doesnt have the 8, so your move here is to bet, doubt u wanna give any free cards they might lead him to a possible str8, even if he goes all in, still a good spot to call even with a mid pair, just cause u got some outs yourself!

 

[Jillychemung]

Trying to understand here why you'd want to bet into this board.

OK we bet 15K and opponent flats us
What do we do and why, when the turn is
1) diamond
2) Any A, K, Q, J
3) A 9
4) A 8
5) A 7
6) A 6
7) A 5
8) Any non-diamond undercard
and opponent shoves (S) or checks (C)

so for example, answers would be S1 & C1 for Shoves a diamond & Checks a diamond

 

[switch0723]

+1 for check behind

 

[shinedown.45]

Why inflate the pot now with 2 cards to come when opponent is so loose that the chances of him floating a c-bet here is >99% ? If we are ahead, we are barely ahead and there are sooo many bad cards that can come on the turn that will force us to give up on this hand.

But he only has 40 hands on villian so we can't really rely on the stats here.
We have to c-bet here, we made a steal attempt but failed and checking behind will let villian know it was a steal attempt which will open the door for villian to bet any scary turn.
By c-betting here we continue to show strength(semi-bluff).

No risk, no reward

 

[roids]

I agree with Jilly, def check the flop, turn will be a deciding factor if this is a board worth putting money into........

 

[2_Gearzzz]

Def check behind because we want to keep this pot small even though i believe you have the best hand. If he checks again on the turn i would fire a bet and hope to take it down.

 

[LuckyChippy]

From the stats is looks like he calls and min-raises alot. With middle pair naff kicker on a very drawy board that he may have already hit. If he doesn't c/raise he'll call, and you're unlikely to like anything that falls off.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Umm fold pf - don't go after a 56/24's BB with 9 high and 20BB effective stacks. There's a time and a place for CO stealing with 97s but this isn't it.

As played check flop for reasons already stated.

 

[dufferdevon]

I would have folded preflop as well, given his stats - but what are his stats like for a c-bet after the flop? He is obvioiusly in a lot of hands, but has he shown any agression after the flop or to a flop bet?

 

[shinedown.45]

I still say a c-bet is not a bad move here, if we go by his stats, I think we are ahead here, as a player with those stats will defend his blind just for the sake of defending with ATC.
I understand why we should check behind but what are we exactly hoping for here?
A 9 would give us two pair, but opens up the straight/flush possibility for villian, so what do we do if that happens, check again or put out a bet if he checks and fold if he bets?

A 7 would give us 3 of a kind but if the 7 happens to fall a diamond then what, check/fold?

A 6 would give us the straight but that just may be the idiot end? and what if it falls as a diamond, another check/fold?

We can't be scared of what might fall but play what we have right now, most of the cards that improve our hand may give villian a better hand, then we are screwed anyway, so why not bet that board with a bet big enough to hopefully chase villian off his hand.
If all we are going to do is check/fold this, why not just fold out of turn and save the hassle of hoping for the perfect turn.

It was a failed steal attempt but we hit the flop and should continue betting IMO.