$33 NLHE: $$30+3 NLHE: Does this shove have a negative or positive Expected value?

[GordonStr222]

$33 NL HE: $$30+3 NL HE: Does this shove have a negative or positive Expected value?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 29/21/33

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 29/21/33

So I was HU against the blind and decided to shove here with 20BB... Was this to wide of a shove being in the blinds against the SB limping... The HUD stats are only after 28 hands so I would not consider them to accurate... Would you guys have played this hand differently? If so how?


pokerstars Game #35466801293: Tournament #229011161, $30+$3 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XVI (1250/2500) - 2009/11/17 0:18:15 PT [2009/11/17 3:18:15 ET]
Table '229011161 4' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: YaBoy2187 (255443 in chips)
Seat 2: GordonStr222 (53368 in chips)
Seat 3: NUKE TILT (81032 in chips)
Seat 4: LordPye (29628 in chips)
Seat 5: almst famos (61344 in chips)
Seat 6: 1coolhand (67252 in chips)
Seat 7: -ispender-55 (69884 in chips)
Seat 9: Costello30 (41466 in chips) out of hand (moved from another table into small blind)
YaBoy2187: posts the ante 250
GordonStr222: posts the ante 250
NUKE TILT: posts the ante 250
LordPye: posts the ante 250
almst famos: posts the ante 250
1coolhand: posts the ante 250
-ispender-55: posts the ante 250
YaBoy2187: posts small blind 1250
GordonStr222: posts big blind 2500
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GordonStr222 [7d Kd]
NUKE TILT: folds
LordPye: folds
almst famos: folds
1coolhand: folds
-ispender-55: folds
YaBoy2187: raises 5000 to 7500
GordonStr222: raises 45618 to 53118 and is all-in
YaBoy2187: calls 45618
*** FLOP *** [Jh Qc Qs]
*** TURN *** [Jh Qc Qs] 8♣
*** RIVER *** [Jh Qc Qs 8c] 3♦
*** SHOW DOWN ***
YaBoy2187: shows [8s 8h] (a full house, Eights full of Queens)
GordonStr222: shows [7d Kd] (a pair of Queens)
YaBoy2187 collected 107986 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 107986 | Rake 0
Board [Jh Qc Qs 8c 3d]
Seat 1: YaBoy2187 (small blind) showed [8s 8h] and won (107986) with a full house, Eights full of Queens
Seat 2: GordonStr222 (big blind) showed [7d Kd] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 3: NUKE TILT folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: LordPye folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: almst famos folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: 1coolhand folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: -ispender-55 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

 

[WiZZiM]

i would say slightly negative, i think you have fold equity.. but the problem is that he has 250k in chips, makes it more likely he will call looser than normal. so yeah i think fold. but im probably wrong

 

[Jillychemung]

Yeah I think that K-rag is too week for the shove here. You have a good possibility that hitting the K will have you out-kicked and hitting the 7 may not help and add that a ST8 is unlikely. Your correct that if you play here that you need to shove but I think you have to have a hand that gives you the opportunity to hit a ST8 as well as the flush.

 

[Sean Pilgrim]

IMO KT and higher can warrant a shove in this position. But not against a stack like his. Chances are 80% of the time you make this move they don't have a hand worth calling you. Deep into a tourney I like to try to play at other equally sized stacks and try to avoid the big stacks and the small sized shoving stacks.

 

[kadafi]

Why in the name of god would you shove with K7 here?? Your not exactly a monster chip stack but there are way better spots than this to shove. I mean a shortstack raising a quarter of his stack is pretty much committing himself to this hand. You won't get him off it many times. And your k7s is only good against small pairs really.

 

[c9h13no3]

This shove just depends on how often villain can fold. If villain has been stealing super often, this becomes okay, and could be a decent play depending on what stage of the tournament you're in. But most of the time, its just going to be spew.

 

[wislim]

I would definately fold. Even if your reshoving the top 15% of hands his 88 has 47% equity against that range.

 

[Zybomb]

I think the majority of responses are missing the point of the play here and are just looking at the cards. Its not WOW WE HAVE K7s!!!!!!!!!!!! ALL IN!We have 20 BBs and ideal resteal stack size, hence a good opportunity to chip up...so lets see if its a good spot to do so. Its been folded around to the blinds and it's the big stack. The question is how often are we picking up the pot uncontested, how wide is his calling range of our 3 bet and when he does call whats our % to win the hand?

This move would clearly be +EV IMO (unless we have reason to believe SB is overly tight) if villains stack was smaller, like say 100k-150k (so now calling and losing is 33%-50% of his stack and his calling range of your 3 bet shove is narrower than when its 20% of his stack). His raising range should be extremely wide, but because of his giant stack, I think middle pairs and AT / KQ / KJ type hands are liable to call and the majority of folds we are going to get are from hands we beat and garbage Aces... For this play to be as effective as it is intended to be we want these medium hands (mid aces, small pairs KT-KQ) to fold a decent % of the time. With THIS many chips though, I just don't know if that's happening.

So it comes down to blind play IMO. Have you been BVB vs this villain before? How has he played? What about his play so far at the table during these stages of the tournament, how has that been?

If he's calling KT+ A7+ and 22+ (wide but reasonable given his stack size) we're about 30 % against KT-KQ 88-QQ and AK A7, about 40% against Ax (besides AK and A7) about 50% against 22-66 and next to dead against KK AA. I don't feel like figuring out combos and coming up with an exact % our K7s against this range, but roughly we'd need twice as many folds as calls to break, and since it's a tourny, a little more than that to really make it worth it. Are we getting a little better than twice as many? That read is up to you

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

If you are looking to steal blinds then I think a raise of 5XBB would be more in line. You are giving yourself the opportunity with that raise to evaluate the flop and save chips if called.

 

[Marginal]

If you are looking to steal blinds then I think a raise of 5XBB would be more in line. You are giving yourself the opportunity with that raise to evaluate the flop and save chips if called.

Actually that would put hero in a worse spot seeing as we would be committed anyway if villain shoves since we have 40% of our stack in and it leaves us in an awkward position on the flop as we have little fold equity.

Zybomb and c9h posts describe my thoughts

 

[cardplayer52]

you would shove 10BBs from the SB to pickup 1.5BBs. So shoving 20BBs to pickup 2BBs isnt too much. I don't like it too much with no reads but not a bad play IMO.

 

[wislim]

I would prefer a 3x raise to steal the bb (with 20bb's) it accomplishes the same thing as a shove w/o putting are stack at risk. As Zybomb said we have a nice resteal stack and I think we can find a better spot to 3 bet shove with fold equity imo.

 

[fajackta]

Yeah, with the size of his stack that is a definite fold. Most of the time they will call you with ANY cards, just hoping they are live. I would have waited for something a little closer like a connector, ace anything, k with a higher kicker, or any pair.

 

[HNRocketS]

Fold and it's not even close. I see a lot of people making this same mistake. The 3-bet is to make crappier hands fold, not hands that have us crushed.

 

[tpb221]

-ev. You don't have enough FE.