$31 NL HE MTT: Folding set on river???

[Rajten]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

31

Game Options

1. Bounty

Currency

$

We are 139/454 278 places paid, starting bubble

UTG 43bb, UTG 1 (26bb), LJ 18 bb, Hi 37bb 200% staring bounty probably sth like 36k, starting stack 10k, Co 6bb (starting bounty), Bu 12bb (starting bounty), Sb 83,5bb, hero 47 bb (300% starting bounty)

Folds to Hi, who raises 2,3bb, 3x folds, hero with 4c4s calls

Flop 2h6sAs (6,3 bb pot)

2x checks,

Turn 2h6sAs4h (6,3 bb pot)

hero bets 4,7bb, villain calls

River 2h6sAs4h9h (15,8 bb pot)

Hero bets 9,8bb, villain raises all in 30bb, hero???

Backdoor flush draw comes. His check on flop looks suspicious, he should bet probably entire range, checks looks like AA, mayby 66 or 22, or mayby middle pair, rare flush draws. On river, I am not sure, is avarage player capable of bluff with KK, QQ, JJ with heart. Is it esploitive fold? I thinks set is too good to fold. Checking on river with intention to call seems weak. No reads on villain.

 

[ScoobyNL]

Bet river more then 50% pot and then player all in for 30bb ?

Is that all in a bluff, i do not think so.

3 options, he has Set AAA on flop, gutshot on flop or river flush !.

He will not go all in with less, i think i would fold that.

 

[eetenor]

I like check call river---it lets our V have more bluffs in their bet range---our value targets on river are few so bluff catching is fine here

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop and flop
Pretty standard not much to analyse here.

Turn
Bingo. I like betting for a large size, because the board is so wet. We want to charge him to draw, and he can also have some one pair hands, that checked the flop for pot control. These are not folding to a single bet, even if we go a bit big.

River
Most people would have bet their draws on the flop, so I dont think, checking to induce is ideal in this spot. I think, he is just going to check back a lot, and when he do bet, a lot of his betting range is going to be hands, that got there on the river, and most of those beat you. He is not going to value own himself with A5. So I do prefer firing again, but I might size down slightly, because you are trying to get called by marginal one pair hands, that checked the flop for pot control.

Getting raised is definitely not great, but I do agree, that this hand is to high in your range to fold. You are paying 20BB to win a pot of 75BB, and you can win his bounty as well. So you only need to be good around 25% of the time, which mean, its one of those spots, where we close our eyes and make the call. Maybe he rivered two pair with A9, or maybe he is actually capable of bluffing. This is a midstakes tournament, and you will see more big bluffs at these limits than in the micros.

 

[300HPGOD]

Great hand to talk about and I think if we could get a roundtable going for this somehow we could talk for hours about this river. Pre, flop, and turn are all good to me so lets head to the river.

As the villain has played this hand I dont think they have any Ax including AA, or any flopped sets. Ax would have bet the flop with two spades out there and if they did slow play AA on the flop and then we lead on the turn with a double flush draw board there is no way they are just calling that bet. Same with a flopped set, if they were to slowplay the flop they arent just calling on the turn. The turn call then to me means villain has 77-KK (still might bet the flop but could also check), two spades (only if they fear you check raising them off their draw so this depends on your image a bit and I agree with Fundiver that this is unlikely they have two spades but possible), or two hearts. Of 77-KK, two spades, two hearts which of those hands will just call us on the river that we beat? Spades will bluff raise or fold, hearts will raise for value, and I think all the pocket pairs will fold (except 99 of course) especially when you size it the way you did. So to me on the river I dont know what we are hoping to just get called by that we beat. Maybe some KK-JJ hands but even those fold and the sizing would have to be smaller to get them to even think about it. Again, I doubt it due to the fact that there is an ace and we checked to the raiser on the flop, and then bet both turn and river at large sizings. Therefore, I like checking the river better than betting the river. I think this may be the exact spot where we are at a cusp though because I dont think there are any hands that really bluff at this outside of possibly two spades (again, I discount that holding) so they most likely check back but at the same time there arent any hands that just call here that we beat given the thinking Ax is not in their range from previous street action. So its a spot where they arent bluffing to you when you check often and they arent calling anything you want them to call with when you bet.

As played and what to do is a whole other discussion that could also go back and forth for a long time. I have to stick with my range I give villain after their action on the flop and turn and cant see any two pair hands here (unless they opened something silly like 96 which I highly doubt). So their raise is either hearts, 99, or busted spade draw. I am discounting villain is turning JJ or so into a bluff but its possible, I would think they would just take showdown value if checked to on the river. Spades as mentioned are unlikely so that heavily leans this towards a value raise and not a bluff. I would also think players would not bluff quite as much in bounty tournaments where they are covered due to the fact that their villains have more incentive to call then a normal MTT. I have a hard time justifying making a call here based on what their range should be and I have a hard time laying down a set as well. This is probably a spot where the potential bounty sucks me in and I make the call but I am scared as hell when I click the call button.

 

[Rajten]

Didn't make call, so dont know what he had. Thank you all for input, it is very interesting discusion.