$3 NLHE STT: struggling to shove as the chip leader

[tzuriel]

Late stages of a micro SnG, I am way ahead of the other stacks. ICMizer says to shove in these situations. In this first one, it folds over to me on the BTN and I can sort of hear the strategy to shove on the blinds cause most of the time they have nothing. But if they have something, I'd like a little more equity than I would have with 67o, which is probably around 30% against two random hands, right? Yes, if they call and I lose I would still have like 44bb but I've doubled up a short stack right before the money. Is it worth the risk?

NL Holdem $3+$0.30 (200.00BB)
SB ($1853)
BB ($2394)
CO ($2442)
HERO ($11311)

Dealt to Hero: 6♠ 7♥

CO Folds, HERO Folds, SB Raises To $1853 (allin), BB Folds

Spoiler

SB wins: $500

In this 2nd hand, ICMizer says to shove 57s UTG. Again, maybe 20-25% equity against 3 random hands and yes, I would still have 45bb if the biggest remaining stack called but the same risk:reward question remains. As you can see, I would have doubled up the smallest stack (who is also a very good player and didn't want head's up against him) but was my fold incorrect?


NL Holdem $3+$0.30 (200.00BB)
BTN ($2128)
SB ($2169)
BB ($2417)
HERO ($11286)

Dealt to Hero: 7♠ 5♠

HERO Folds, BTN Raises To $2128 (allin), SB Raises To $2169 (allin), BB Folds

Flop ($4547): Q♥ 4♠ K♠

Turn ($4547): Q♥ 4♠ K♠ 5♣

River ($4547): Q♥ 4♠ K♠ 5♣ J♥

Spoiler

BTN shows: 8♠ A♥
SB shows: K♥ K♣

SB wins: $4506

 

[fundiver199]

When there is a runaway chipleader on the bubble of a SnG (assuming this is a 9-man), its like a game of chicken, where the chipleader can often open shove any two cards, because its like asking "which of you guys dont want to cash"? And usually the answer is, they all want to cash. This is true even against recreational opponents, who dont know the word ICM but intuitively understand, that they dont want to mess with the chip leader and risk being the bubble boy.

With that being said you do want to pay some consideration to dynamics and avoid creating a situation, where you tilt them to the point, that one of them spite call you, because he just had enough of your "bullying". So maybe it can be ok to back off a little bit and only shove 80%, when the NASH equilibrium is 100% and so on.

But in general you are leaving a lot of EV on the table, if you dont take advantage of situations like this, where people cant afford to call you light. Yes in the second hand you would obviusly have gotten called by KK and lost, but that is super results oriented thinking. Its baked into the math, that you will sometimes get called and be behind, but the shove is still profitable, because people dont wake up with big hands like KK very often.

 

[tzuriel]

Yes in the second hand you would obviously have gotten called by KK and lost, but that is super results oriented thinking. Its baked into the math, that you will sometimes get called and be behind, but the shove is still profitable, because people dont wake up with big hands like KK very often. So you need to get past feeling "stupid", when you jam light and occasionally run into it and learn to simply pull the trigger.

Not trying to be results oriented. That's why I asked if the fold was wrong. Sounds like it was and I need to pull the trigger in these situations. Thanks for the encouragement FD!

 

[tzuriel]

Yep. I mentioned running them both thru ICMizer. That's what sparked my post. You are right on the money with your comment about pulling the trigger. Cannot be afraid in these spots that don't happen that often.

Oh. Sorry, it was indeed a 9man SnG

 

[fundiver199]

Just for info I edited my previous post after making it. This is why, your quote dont match the actual post. I also ran hand 2 in ICMizer assuming, it was a 9-man SnG with the traditional 50/30/20 payout. In that case as expected Hero can open jam any two cards from any seat as the runaway chipleader.

However when working with ICMizer we do want to pay attention to the ranges, which ICMizer assign the opponents and consider, if these are realistic. When Hero jam from CO, the next two players are only supposed to call with 99+, while BB can call a bit wider with 77+, AQ+, ATs+. I dont think, most people in a 3$ SnG are folding AK not even on the bubble, so I want to make those ranges slightly wider to adjust for player pool tendencies.

If I widen the calling range of BTN and SB to 6% of hands, which is 77+ and AQ+, Hero can still jam any two, but the junky hands get close to break even. And if I widen all the ranges further to 8%, which is 66+, AJ+, ATs+, KQs, then the bottom 40% of hands become losing jams. 75s is not in the bottom 40% though, so even adjusting for realistic player pool tendencies I think, its to tight to not jam 75s.

 

[Tigroslav]

Connectors in general even low ones like 67 have pretty decent equity and suited 1 gapers too.
Definitely good enough to shove if you decide to do so which you don't have to always do.

 

[fundiver199]

Connectors in general even low ones like 67 have pretty decent equity and suited 1 gapers too.

Exactly. Small suited connectors and 1-gappers dont have good blockers, but they usually have more equity when called than offsuit rag hands with one high card. Against a range of 88+, AQ+ 76s has 29,6% equity, while A6o only has 26,5%.