This is a discussion on $3.50 NLHE STT: Overpair vs. check/shove on wet-ish? board within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 32/18/2
First time I've played against Villain. 40th hand. At the time I felt that Villain had been calling a lot of opens.
$3.50 NLHE STT: Overpair vs. check/shove on wet-ish? board
Join Date: May 2017
Online Poker at: Pokerstars
Game: NL HE
$3.50 NLHE STT: Overpair vs. check/shove on wet-ish? board
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 32/18/2
First time I've played against Villain. 40th hand. At the time I felt that Villain had been calling a lot of opens. He had called 2/2 pre-flop 3-bets so far. I thought he might be playing quite straightforwardly post-flop but couldn't be certain
As I type this I'm seeing the hand in a new light: I think I, too quickly, surmised my opponent was calling too wide and too often; 40 hands is a very small sample and I've played against players with a far higher VPIP. I was mainly going on my own perception of how Villain had played so far and convincing myself the HUD stats backed up my read.
I didn't think properly about V's range. In fact I didn't think at all when I called the shove, blinded by my cards and my ego.
Anyway, pre-flop I 3-bet his open. I think my hand was strong enough and felt I had a good chance of isolating against UTG. Looking back I should have narrowed his range pre-flop.
At the flop I'm a little wary of the flush and straight draws. I'm not thinking properly about Villain's range.
What range would you have Villain on through the hand and what actions would you have taken?
Just by writing this I can see that I wasn't thinking properly and I will go away and look at it in more detail. Posting a hand for review is great way of self-analysing in itself! I'm sorry if this post is rambling. I would still very much appreciate any feedback.
I would have played the hand exactly as you did with the one small exception that I would have 3 bet to 350 or 400 which is a minor change. On the flop I would be feeling good unless I think villain is a player that is smart enough to just flat with AA or KK here but if I think they would generally 4 bet here with those then Im feeling good. I would have c bet on the flop to almost the same amount you did because with two clubs out there I want to get it in by the turn not for protection but for value extraction from big flush draws. If we play this as a 3 street hand then we are dependent on villain bluffing their missed draws if the clubs dont come in and weary if they do come in.
As played with the villain check jamming us I think based on our starting stack in the hand its a call. This one is actually fairly close to whether we are ahead or not since Ax flush draws are not doing terrible against us, AK clubs are beating us, small chance they did just call with KK or AA pre, and sets of course are possible. However we are getting 2 to 1 on a call so we dont have to be ahead to call. I know we havent played with villain a lot but is villain someone who will jam 88-JJ here? Probably no way of knowing but Im thinking its possible along with Ax flush draws we beat. To me thats enough along with the starting stacks in this hand to go with it getting about 2 to 1.
I have not looked at the results yet, but I am really happy, when I get check-jammed on with QQ on 762 2-tone, and I am basically beating the opponent into the pot. What does he even have here, that we lose to? AA and KK is supposed to get it in preflop, and 22-77 is supposed to fold to your 3-bet. He also never should have 2 pair here, because 76 is way to loose to open UTG. What he should have here is a lot of 88-JJ and then some flushdraws like AQ/AJ/KQ of clubs,
Now I say "should", because sometimes of course people will play poorly and get rewarded for it. But the fact of the matter is still, we have a strong overpair in a 3-bet pot on a very safe board, and we only started the hand with 45BB. So we are just never going to fold here, and if we lose the hand, it is, what it is.
Ok so checked the results now, and he did in fact outflop us with 77. This is the most reasonable hand, he could have, that we were behind to, so its not a total chock to see this. But even if we give him 77 and 66, this is still only 6 combos, we lose to, and there are 24 combos of 88-JJ, that we crush. Those hands are played the exact same way, so its still a super trivial and profitable stack-off for us on the flop.
If you are going to play tournaments, and especially if you are going to grind SnGs, you better get used to hands like this, because they are going to happen all the time, and there is absolutely nothing, you can do about it. You just shrug it off, pay another 3,5$ and register for the next SnG. At least in this one you did not spend a ton of time just to bust on the bubble.
re: Poker & $3.50 NLHE STT: Overpair vs. check/shove on wet-ish? board
Hello, I agree with guys who think that 3bet pre flop could be a little bigger on this level of blind. 40bb in stack it is even deep stack. Players who had 30-40bb can defend his pre flop with some weaker hands something like 67s, 87s and also pocket pairs. Yeah, I think that hero played well this hand good one the flop. This time you lose, but sometimes you some combodraws with clubs like 89s, maybe something like t9s. T9s is possible hand here and on this flop this hand has a lot of equity. GL
Thank you all. For me, one of the most difficult parts of learning poker is knowing the difference between getting outplayed/making a mistake and losing when I made the correct decision (especially in hands where I bust out of the tournament).
To hear other people's analysis of these hands is a great help to me, both by improving my strategy and reminding me to not be results-oriented.