$3.50 NLHE HU Tourney: Shove river?

[BlueNowhere]

Fire on river? I think I can have a lot of 7x with GK and two pair in this spot. I thought he can have alot of weak 7x and 5x and 86, 46 maybe a similar hand to mine. I wasn't sure what level he was at now and decided to check it back. Check/fold or shove best?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.5 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (2 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t450)
Hero (BB) (t550)

Hero's M: 18.33

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2

, K

SB calls t10, Hero checks

Flop: (t40) 2

, 7

, 5

(2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets t20, Hero raises to t45, SB calls t25

Turn: (t130) 3

(2 players)
Hero bets t75, SB calls t75

River: (t280) 9

(2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks

Total pot: t280

 

[baudib1]

Without a better read I'd c/f, the 9 is a pretty bad river card imo that hits a lot of hands like 86/98 that he floated with.

 

[c9h13no3]

I'd much rather donk the flop or check/fold, than take this expensive line.

 

[BlueNowhere]

I planned on shoving most rivers and him to fold enough. I only need him to fold just over 50% of the time which I think he does.

Lets say river was a J, would shoving that be fine?

 

[baudib1]

Talking totally out of my ass more than usual cuz I never really played these...Surely you have a better feel for what unknowns do here. I've made some absurdly thin value shoves in HU tourneys but generally I don't think you have all that much fold equity once someone calls a flop C-R and turn bet.

 

[BlueNowhere]

I do think I will see some calls but I think he really struggles with a lot of his range because general population never takes this line as a bluff, hence me deciding to take it because I don't think I'm ever supposed to have bluffs in my range here. I think it could be thin either way tbh and that's why I wasn't sure.

 

[baudib1]

What hands are you taking this line with and shoving the river for value?

I am torn because it seems like you have enough SD value to check this river.

 

[dwbrown7680]

Doesn't seem like a good river for us, I agree that we prolly have enough SD value here to just check and see how it pans.

 

[BlueNowhere]

What hands are you taking this line with and shoving the river for value?

I am torn because it seems like you have enough SD value to check this river.

2 pair, straights and sets, although I would make size smaller on river with those. I felt like there is so little that comes this far that I'm not behind really and he would struggle to call a river shove with enough of his range/

 

[baudib1]

If you would be shoving most of your good hands then it'd be fine to shove here as this would be either your worst value hand or the top of your air range, i.e. one of the best hands to bluff with. The nut hand to turn into a bluff here would be Acxx that blocks the absolute nuts as well as a ton of hands (AA, TPTK) he might have slowplayed.

I am not ruling out the possibility that you get called by a worse hand, but understand that you are indeed bluffing (his calling range crushes you) and this line is admittedly totally weighted toward bluffs or all bluffs. Also, since this is a limped pot your range of monsters is somewhat capped because you have very few sets and no overpairs.

What you're looking for is someone who is going to fold top pair/2nd pair or not have top pair here ever (because he'd slowplay it on the flop or get it in on the flop), to bet out his draw but not get it in and to always raise the turn with monsters...it's probably asking a lot. In other words, what you're trying to fold out is mostly stuff like very weak made hands (middle pair, bottom pair, 33), floats with A-high and overcards, missed draws (the most obvious draw got there, too). Since you beat most of this range anyway, there doesn't seem to be a ton of value in shoving or even betting over checking (it does save you from being bluffed off the best hand occasionally).

 

[BlueNowhere]

I think the general population shoves here for value which is why I think I can shove here as a bluff so in my case it's going to be weighted towards bluffs but population tendancies balance that out for me.

 

[baudib1]

I get that you think that, I'm not sure why it's so important. What does the general population call with?

You are depolarized in a fashion that can be figured out pretty quickly by someone who plays you for more than 2 games -- when you're shoving rivers a bunch and bet half-pot with the nuts, even bad players can figure this out.

At least shove K2o here on facecards and deuces to give yourself a semblance of balance + more FE.

 

[BlueNowhere]

7x and made draws, probably one or two calling stations would call with 5x.

If I was in this spot again my range would be heavily weighted towards value with the last hand in mind so I'm not bothered on him picking up on it. Plus I bet some half pots as a bluff so my range has a semblance of balance anyway, certainly enough that micro players can't exploit it.

It was 3rd hand so obvious betting patterns such as shoving as a bluff didn't matter as he had to play me as an unknown so he has to fold alot of his range as agaisnt a random he doesn't have enough equity.

 

[baudib1]

I mean I totally get where you are coming from and in game I might want to shove this myself. On the other hand, in half of my matches I expect to value bet bottom pair for 2 streets and get called by worse.

You should be thinking about spots like this though where you are going to be unbalanced, even against an unknown.