$3.40 NLHE STT: What-if scenario

[jbbb]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 40/20/29

Poker Stars - $3.00+0.40 Tournament (#379775703) - Blinds: 15/30 No Limit Hold'em (7 players)
Poker Stars Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: t1,480
BB: t1,353
UTG: t1,470
MP: t4,340
MP+1: t1,757
CO: t2,070
BTN: t1,030

Pre-flop: (t45) is MP+1 and dealt
2 folds, MP+1 raises to t75, CO folds, BTN calls t75, SB folds, BB calls t45

Flop: (t240) (3 players)
BB checks, MP+1 bets t120, 1 fold, BTN raises to 1,030 and is all-in , Hero ???

I was thinking snap call with 3Aces, 3Kings and 9-7 spades?

Any suggestions?

 

[Pascal-lf]

Don't understand what you are asking - what are 3Aces, 3Kings and why 9-7 of spades?

 

[Jillychemung]

If he's behind then his possible outs are 9 spades + 3 Aces + 2 Kings (Ks accounted for in the spades)

 

[jbbb]

Sorry should have been more specific.
If he shoved, would it be correct to call or fold?
I was stating what outs I thought I had (but as Jilly said, it's one less than I though).
So the question was, can I call this early in the tournament or should I pass and look for a better spot (earing towards calling).

 

[ben_rhyno]

Pretty sure this is a snap call, will check stove later but in-game i am never folding

 

[Tangerine 53]

Interesting one... . You're right in that the likelihood is we have at least 14 outs even if we're behind - villain could be protecting 22 or 77 (discounting QQ as I would have expect him to have raised with that hand) or other possibilities are Qx, two low spades etc.

On the basis of few reads on the villain I'm erring towards a call also but I'd be interested in the Poker stove view. We're still quite early in the tourney so folding wouldn't be a complete disaster.

 

[Potheadwoman]

IMO I would imagine you could wait for a better spot to call a shove. Your surely behind. It almost looks like a new player trying to win a few chips or trying to get some other idiot to call his made flush. I would consider folding here more then calling

 

[thunder1276]

there is absolutely no need to risk your tournament right here. You are still really early with 7 players and 50 BB. yea sure if you call and win you will have a big stack but there is no guarantee that you will even win this a third of the time. If you hit the flush on the turn against a set, he still has 20% chance to hit a full house on the river. Your best case scenario is he has a flush draw and nothing else making you a big favorite but most likely he has at least a pair if not a made flush, making you no better than a coin flip. Do you really want to risk 50 BB and your tournament with what is in all likeliness a coin flip at best?

 

[DetroitJimmy]

I'm sure a call is +CEV and even +EV. You could call if for some reason you think you can't outplay your opponents later. I don't like to be all in this early without at the very least TPTK. Not at these stakes. Most players have little to no mid/end-game skills and this is what matters the most.

In a larger stakes BI like $10 maybe even $20 I think this call may be okay. It seems maybe my end game is not as as other players at these levels or more likely there are too many who play a very good end-game left at the end. Because at these levels you are usually up against 3-6 good regs. It is possible you may have to pick up extra equity earlier to be effective at the end in these. It is just too hard to play end-game with a low-mid stack against people who make few mistakes. Even then maybe still too early. I wouldn't know because my only attempt lately was 20 BI's at $12 turbos on FTP failed. Big jump in skill. Also most multi-tabling regs(not all!) at these higher stakes are winning regs with +7% ROI.

Even then it's kinda dicey. No need to go out this early. I'm thinking maybe take more chances at steals/re-steals at mid-game than this early.

 

[WiZZiM]

Pretty sure i'm calling this, we have tons of outs and our hand could actually still be the best one a small portion of the time (when he is shoving on some random flush draw).

 

[jbbb]

Thanks for the replies (Wiz I haven't forgot about the SNG review you done for me, just been busy lately )