$3.40 NLHE STT Turbo: lolwtf bubble?

[cjatud2012]

Limper is 21/4, hasn't been very aggressive in trying to maintain his stack. BB is 15/8, similar description.

PokerStars - $3+$0.40|400/800 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

Hero (SB): 3,664.00
BB: 3,026.00
UTG: 3,960.00
BTN: 2,850.00

Hero posts ante 50.00, BB posts ante 50.00, UTG posts ante 50.00, BTN posts ante 50.00, Hero posts SB 400.00, BB posts BB 800.00

Pre Flop: (1400.00) Hero has J:heart: K:spade:

fold, BTN calls 800.00, Hero ???

 

[the lab man]

Still learning here... Is this not a auto push? If not why?

 

[DetroitJimmy]

I think if limper has high blind limped a lot and folded to shove at least once it is automatic. Hell, I still think it is. I mean you are killing his limping range right? Then again if he HBL's then calls AI's more often then it could be a fold. I would have to say shove more often then not here and pray when he flips over his A4o .

 

[TheKAAHK]

Most of the time this is a clear shove.

But I have noticed a trend in the turbo's on the bubble to limp monsters to either trap on the flop or induce a shove from these very hands. Though this happens so rarely, and usually it is the big stack doing it, that I would still go with a shove here.

Like DJ said, you're crushing most players' limping range here, and more times than not if you are behind, it's not by much.

Punish the limp!

 

[WiZZiM]

This is a super easy fold. The limper isn't really wide enough to justify anything but a fold here. Most of the time guys like this won't fold AX broadway, and that is basically the biggest chunk of his range.

Factor in we still have one person left to act here and it's an even easier fold.

Even if he's limping 30% of the time and folding 50% of the time, this is no where near a good shove i wouldn't think.

You need to be careful against guys like this, in my experiance in the 3.40's, they limp/call a lot, it's almost like they are trying to trap with hands like A7 etc.

Anyways, basically put, limper isn't limping wide, he's not folding much, KJ is not "ahead" of his range, and factoring in ICM, this is a clear cut fold in my book.

 

[Rldetheflop]

You need to be careful against guys like this, in my experiance in the 3.40's, they limp/call a lot, it's almost like they are trying to trap with hands like A7 etc..

I have noticed this a lot as well sb limps in then snaps me off with A rag I just laugh at the master plan especially when they bust out doing it.

as for the hand I just dont think we are getting enough folds here to justify shoving. We are never crushing I dont think so we have to make up for that with FE and I dont think we have any.

 

[DetroitJimmy]

I'm leaning toward fold now too. Think I made two shoves almost identical to this and got called with A5s and A7o. It really only pays to punish limper/re-steal if they don't end up pot committed.

On the other hand there is a certain breed of HBL that will limp then bet minimum on flop regardless. Funny thing is this works more often than you would think. The same one min-raise steal attempts under 10BBs then fold to 3 bet shove. Seen it happen over and over. Even as little as 7 BBs I see some players MR/Fold. If one of these types then maybe a shove but much more marginal than I originally thought. Either way I recant my original statement and would have to say you really aren't ever making a mistake folding, but there could be reasons to a very small % of the time(Like not enough to really matter). Hope this is understandable because when I re-read it it looks like gibberish.

 

[cjatud2012]

Yeah when this one came up I really had no clue - I ended up folding, but probably not for the right reason. I was just sorta hoping that if I folded, one of the other guys would do something stupid lol. Anyway, the BB checked pre-flop then again on the flop, the BTN bet (just like you said Jimmy) and the BB folded.

This was the first time on the bubble that the player on the button had limped - he actually hadn't been playing many pots at all, both him and the player in the BB were letting themselves get blinded out. So anyway, when this guys limps in for ~28% of his stack, I figure I'm never ever getting him to fold, which is pretty much a disaster on the bubble. My hand doesn't have great equity against a likely range either, so it's not like that makes up for anything.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.262% 40.30% 01.96% 2550450468 124183212.00 { KJo }
Hand 1: 57.738% 55.78% 01.96% 3529858692 124183212.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QJo }

So looking at it now, it seems like this is a pretty bad risk to take.