$3.40 NLHE STT: JJ low blinds paired bored min raise

[starky2009]

$3.40 NL HE STT: JJ low blinds paired bored min raise

Villain was an unknown. only the 4th or 5th hand so not big enough sample for a read.


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.4 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

MP3 (t1730)
CO (t1340)
Button (t1430)
SB (t1660)
BB (t1600)
UTG (t1540)
Hero (UTG+1) (t1450)
MP1 (t1050)
MP2 (t1700)

Hero's M: 48.33

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with [Jh] [Jc]
1 fold, Hero bets t80, 1 fold, MP2 calls t80, 5 folds

Flop: (t190) [7d], [7s], [9h](2 players)
Hero bets t100, MP2 raises to t200, Hero ?

 

[cjatud2012]

my default play is just to shove here, but I'm not sure how good that is lol. Lemme work out some math real quick and get back to you.

 

[starky2009]

cheers cjat, your always really quick to post.

I really don't know myself what to do here, its just awkward and unfamiliar.

 

[cjatud2012]

Happy to help, I feel like I always learn a lot to just by replying to posts.

Okay, if my analysis is correct I stand by my initial answer and say this is a shove. Basically, here are our situations (taken from chillin411):

-if we fold, our $EV is $2.58
-if we shove and he folds, our $EV is $3.49
-if we shove, he calls and we win, our $EV is $5.40
-if we shove, he calls and he wins, our $EV is $0

Also, I figure if we get called we're up against a range that looks like this (taken from Pokerstove, this part is kinda fluid, but it should work for us):

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.281% 41.42% 00.86% 146391 3043.50 { JJ }
Hand 1: 57.719% 56.86% 00.86% 200952 3043.50 { 77+, A9s, A7s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 97s, 87s, 87o }

By combining these different outcomes we can determine how often he needs to fold for this to be profitable. If we let the variable x be the percentage of the time our villain folds:

0 = x*(3.49-2.58) + (1-x)*[.57(0-2.58) + .43(5.40-2.58)]
0 = 0.9099x - 0.2607 + 0.2607x
0.2607 = 1.171x
x = 0.22, or 22%

So if our villain folds ~25% of the time, we can expect this to be profitable in the long run. Villain might be raising smaller pairs here that he would fold to a shove (if he calls with those that's great for us obv), there's a chance he's getting crazy with overs but that's more doubtful. So I think shoving is best.

 

[trinitus]

I would probably 3 bet with intend to pay an all in situation. Most likely he is just trying to buy a free card for the river. I put him on a draw or higher poket pair high as pair of 10's.

 

[OzExorcist]

Trouble with this is the villain's range can be wide and the minbet can mean a few different things.

Range first: AA-QQ is unlikely given it probably would've raised preflop. Lower pairs on a set mine are certainly possible though. Connectors, two paint, weird Ax / paint-rag / random sooted hands are possible too depending on the opponent.

Basically all we're worried about is overpairs (which I think are unlikely), 99 and 7x hands. 99 and 7x are certainly possible and it's certainly possible an average bad player could minraise them. But they could also minraise 9x, underpairs, straight draws and probably other random junk too to "see where they're at" or to try to scare off what looks like a standard c-bet from us.

We could call but we probably don't like any A, K, Q or 9 coming on the turn, and that'll happen about 30% of the time.

I think I just shove - we're obvioulsy getting called by the hands that beat us but I think TT, some of the 9x hands and maybe even lower pairs still give us action as well and like cj has said, even if villain just folds 25% of the time (I think it's a lot more often than that FWIW) it's still profitable for us.