$3.40 NLHE STT: J8o blind play river decision

F

FastandFurious

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poker stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25.00/t50.00 Blinds - 8 players - View hand 1230266
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP1: t2336.00 46.72 BBs - VPIP: 37, PFR: 3, 3B: 6, AF: 3.8, Hands: 107
MP2: t1570.00 31.40 BBs - VPIP: 19, PFR: 6, 3B: 3, AF: 1.1, hands: 432
CO: t1135.00 22.70 BBs - VPIP: 16, PFR: 6, 3B: 4, AF: 2.3, Hands: 120
BTN: t1205.00 24.10 BBs - VPIP: 13, PFR: 9, 3B: 1, AF: 2.8, Hands: 705
SB: t2168.00 43.36 BBs - VPIP: 18, PFR: 12, 3B: 6, AF: 2.4, Hands: 795
Hero (BB): t2131.00 42.62 BBs - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 5, AF: 3.2, Hands: 65797
UTG: t835.00 16.70 BBs - VPIP: 25, PFR: 15, 3B: 10, AF: 1.8, Hands: 79
UTG+1: t2120.00 42.40 BBs - VPIP: 16, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 283

Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is BB with 8 :heart: J :spade:
2 folds, MP1 calls t50, 1 fold, CO calls t50, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: (t175) K :club: 8 :diamond: 3 :club: (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, CO checks

Turn: (t175) 8 :club: (3 players)
Hero bets t100.00, MP1 calls t100, CO folds

River: (t375) Q :diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets t200.00, MP1 raises to t2186, ??

instant call?
 
R

Riemannian man

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I think I'm going to have to fold this. I think he's going to have the flush enough times to make this a fold. Also you have plenty of stack to find a better spot.
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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You need ~42% equity to win from a cEV perspective, and this far away from the bubble that's probably pretty accurate. So what does he do this with? Flushes are certainly possible, although I'm sure we'd never play a flush this way ourselves. I'm not expecting Kx here very often, since that usually bets the flop, especially since he's pretty aggressive post-flop. Qx isn't really likely either, because what Qx hands are flatting your turn bet? KK/QQ are pretty unlikely as well, although I suppose he could have 33. I guess he could have a worse 8, but since we have one that's kinda unlikely too.

So I dunno, in game I probably call but what makes sense here that you beat? Not a lot unfortunately :(
 
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