$3.40 NLHE STT: $$3.40 NLHE STT: do i 3 bet shove here on the bubble

[starky2009]

$3.40 NL HE STT: $$3.40 NL HE STT: do i 3 bet shove here on the bubble

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 27/19/4

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 27/19/4

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.4 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

BB (t2370)
UTG (t4310)
Hero (Button) (t5470)
SB (t1350)

Hero's M: 7.81

Preflop: Hero is Button with Ac, Js
UTG bets t1000, Hero?

Just a few notes. This was a loooooong bubble. All 3 opponents were clearly winning players. All TAG, and 2 were multitabling. Thats why villains stats seem so LAG.

I'll say the result if any1 asks.

 

[ben_rhyno]

I suggest a fold here, he's invested a quarter of his stack and its fairly likely one of the other 2 will call, and he won't fold to your 3-bet. Plus the SB only has an M of roughly 2, I wait for a better spot to put the SB under more pressure giving you a better chance of cashing. Its a difficult decision for me

 

[WiZZiM]

Well we may be overestimating our opponants a little here. But if they are all regulars, we actually have the UTG villain covered here, so shoving wouldn't be out of the question really. Our hand has good showdown value , but really if we think he even slightly understands ICM here, he's folding a LOT.

So in these spots we need to work out what will happen in every likely outcome.

So if we shove here, and he folds, we gain a lot in equity, and sinces your read is that he is a good player he's going to fold a hell of a lot, since theres a guy with 2-3bb's left. And there's a ton of overlay in the pot, so it has to be worth going for a re-steal just for the chips in the pot already.

ok if we shove and get called and win, our equity skyrockets, and we are now ITM with a huge chance of winning.

If we shove, get called and lose, we drop significantly in equity, but we're still in the tournament with ~900 chips, and about equal in chips to the other shortstack.

This is a situation that is in our favour, but how often will he fold, that is the question. How good of a player is he, and how much does he know about ICM. This is the tough thing about this level for me, trying to work out what "regs" actually know what they are doing. Most of them are really bad and will stack off with stuff like AQ and AK here, but if we know he's good, and he will fold pretty much everthing like he should, then we can ship. Quick SNG wiz analysis here just to confirm for myself, but if i think he's good, and capable of folding very big hands like JJ and QQ, then i'm shoving, if i don't think he is and he's callingw ith stuff like AK etc then i'm opting to fold.


Yeah looks like im about right i'll post wiz results now, but it looks like it's pretty read dependant, but overall i think this is a really good spot to shove over, and if he's opening near that 18% range he's going to have to fold often enough to make this profitable. And if he's trying to "own" the bubble, then his range just might be wider in this spot. So the real issue for me is, are we overestimating our opponants here, saying that they are all winning players with tight stats, it doesnt mean they are crushing the stake. But anyone with half a brain here will be folding a LOT.

So final decision after we weigh all these factors, and simplifying it. We know he's somewhat decent, he's opening wide, theres an extreme shortstack present, he should be very risk averse, we have him covered in chips, we have a hand with decent showdown value. All of this makes it a shove imo.

The SNG wiz charts are probably not 100% accurate for this guy, the true answer probably lies in between the two calling ranges of this particular opponant.

Awesome spot though, keep em coming ..

 

[WiZZiM]

Oh and in those Wiz diagrams we can actually change the overcall %'es down a lot, which will actually improve our diff % by a little bit.

 

[starky2009]

Thanks for the indepth analysis Wizzim.

I think, as you said, his call percentage is somewhere inbetween the two graphs, gearing towards the 4.7% one on the right. . He would call i feel with QQ+ and AKs......maybe JJ/AKo at a push.

He's definately not calling with worse, but he was opening quite wide. We were sort of being the buble captain together, the other two were just folding everything but the best, tring to get third.

I know he's a winning player firstly on his style of play, but also because i searched him on pokerprolabs. He was up arround 250 on 120 games. playing mostly these 3 dollar sit n go's.


Another point is that i had 3 bet him 3 times already in this sit n go before this point. Twice he folded, the other he called, c/f the flop. the problem is i don't know whether he's more likely to call or fold. Since he's good i think he'll call less (and not out of spite like some people do because its the forth time you've done it).

Finally i feel i should tell you the blinds were soon to be 300/600 (in 1 or 2 mins at that time) so how does this affect the decision.

I folded btw.

 

[cjatud2012]

this really depends on our fold equity here, WiZZ provided a really great analysis of how that can positively affect our equity and how it can negatively affect it. Given the reads/history/situation that you just posted I think our decision comes closer to a fold.

 

[Pokertron3000]

Damn wiz thats some analysis.

Well personally my first thought was too shove just because putting myself in the villans shoes if I get put all in I could fold that quite easy with most hands and you represent his best chance to steal some chips before the level goes up and the shorties have to push.

 

[WiZZiM]

Thanks for the indepth analysis Wizzim.

I think, as you said, his call percentage is somewhere inbetween the two graphs, gearing towards the 4.7% one on the right. . He would call i feel with QQ+ and AKs......maybe JJ/AKo at a push.Well with that read, we can pretty much say that this is a shove, we're risking a lot, sure, but the reward is huge also, and i think it's worth it.

He's definately not calling with worse, but he was opening quite wide. We were sort of being the buble captain together, the other two were just folding everything but the best, tring to get third.

I know he's a winning player firstly on his style of play, but also because i searched him on pokerprolabs. He was up arround 250 on 120 games. playing mostly these 3 dollar sit n go's.
Yeah, pretty small sample, but i guess you can label him as a decent reg.

Another point is that i had 3 bet him 3 times already in this sit n go before this point. Twice he folded, the other he called, c/f the flop. the problem is i don't know whether he's more likely to call or fold. Since he's good i think he'll call less (and not out of spite like some people do because its the forth time you've done it).
Well yeah, that makes it far more likely that we're going to get called wider, perhaps not out of spite, but perhaps he thinks AQ/TT is good enough to ship with, who knows. So yeah, it usually means we will get called lighter, but it's still the bubble, and he still needs to be very risk averse, Sometimes even when they know we are shoving wide on them they can't really do anything about it.
Finally i feel i should tell you the blinds were soon to be 300/600 (in 1 or 2 mins at that time) so how does this affect the decision.
Well the only way this affects our decision is when we shove and get called and lose, we will be left with a little over 1BB.
I folded btw.

Well i guess we need to weigh up the Risk/reward again. Simplified, and im using guesstimates here cos i can't be bothered to work it out .

So there's 1700 in the pot preflop. that's well over 20% of our stack, so it's worth re-stealing.

we have roughly 30-35% equity in the tournament currently. If we shove and take the pot down, it rises to around 38%.

If we shove and win, our equity goes to around 40-45% somewhere around there.

If we shove, and lose, our equity drops to probably around 10-12%.

So looking at those figures (and you can work them out more accurately if you like) i'm not really sure if it's worth the risk here. And including all the metagame stuff, like being called slightly looser, and the blinds going up after this hand, probably lean this toward a fold. If you had more chips than villain, or if the blinds had just hit 2/400, i think it leans toward a shove. Either way it's really close, and overall folding can't be a mistake. But we're trying to work out if it's worth re-stealing here, and putting all the pieces together, i think it might be too risky to shove, considering future blind issues when we're left with a 1BB stack, it becomes a fold i think.

I'm sure PMI could put this in a mathematical equation including fold equity etc, would be interesting to find out, But that's tommorows problem, bed time for me.

Damn wiz thats some analysis.

Yeah, got a bit carried away, but it's a really cool spot.

 

[ljove]

You can shove all in here.I think he is attacking blinds here.You don't have many opportunities to shove in late phase tournament.Take your chances and push.

 

[Pokertron3000]

Yeah wiz I relly enjoyed reading it keep doing it lol I learn more things that way.