$3.30 NLHE MTT Turbo: KQo. Do you push this?

[lilu80]

pokerstars Hand #132403806214: Tournament #1164584940, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIX (600/1200) - 2015/03/21 12:39:03 CET [2015/03/21 7:39:03 ET] Table '1164584940 289' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
MP2: t25422 M = 8.07
CO: t45317 M = 14.39
Hero (BTN): t18031 M = 5.72
SB: t18625 M = 5.91
BB: t20973 M = 6.66
UTG: t58640 M = 18.62
UTG+1: t7047 M = 2.24
UTG+2: t11009 M = 3.49
MP1: t17548 M = 5.57

Pre Flop: (t3150) Hero is BTN with K :spade: Q :club:
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to t10859 all in, 3 folds, Hero raises to t17881 all in, 2 folds

Flop: (t24868) 5 :heart: A :diamond: 5 :club: (2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: (t24868) 8 :spade: (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: (t24868) T :diamond: (2 players - 2 are all in)

Spoiler

UTG+2 showed A :heart: 8 :heart:

 

[horizon12]

It is very close call, but i think will be fine, you will have around 45% equity vs any range shove here, so this call very profitable...

 

[PCK]

The call is at limit,with blinds still in play ,15bbs... in the final ,i would probabily play the same

 

[bremensha]

playing against 2 players your drawing hand (there will probably be an ace and a medium pair to beat) is profitably to play.

 

[hutzpaf]

UTG+2 Push was slightly wrong and you should fold according to the calculator results

 

[PBG789]

Without any stats I would think the villain's range is pretty wide (any A, pocket pairs, suited connectors, K9+, Q10+) so unless he has a premium hand (and if he does good luck to him) you are ahead of a lot of it and 40% to most where you are behind. That being said some info on the villain may narrow this range. You certainly don't want to give any encouragement to the blinds to join in so the re-shove is the right move in that respect. The question you have to ask yourself here is are you ready to risk 60% of your stack on a drawing hand where you are going to be behind a lot. The answer for me would be situation and villain dependant.

As played you went to the flop as a 60/40 dog and the villain's hand held up but regardless of this I don't think you made a bad play as, imo, the shove or fold were about 50/50 and sometimes in poker you have to take a gamble.

 

[PBG789]

Disagree with hutzpaf - for me with 9BB in an unopened pot (unless there is a situation specific reason not to do it) then A8 suited is close to an automatic shove. You are picking up blinds and antes (if they are in play) a lot and have decent equity against a lot of hands that will call. Also with 9BB how much longer can you afford to wait?

 

[hutzpaf]

UTG+2 Push was slightly wrong according to the calculator results

You are right PBG789, an unopened pot A8s i shove almost always, ignore what the counter says.

 

[Ambur]

I mean if we shove (assume active player's fold) and lose we have stack which does not have shoving value anymore (M2,23 left - we do not have folding equity anymore most cases if we lose and it is turbo structure we are basically blinded dead at that point, which means we do not use our active stack ~40%) - so we have to win the hand by actually having better holding ! If my stack would be similar opener's one i would consider shove! We can not even double up if we succeed this move! We are coinflipping most of the time or we are slightly underdog imo!

QKo i definitely good holding, unopened pot for open shove most cases, but does not play very well against open shove - where we actually have to win it by showdown!

Summary:
Given stack sizes says this is fold - Only against ocean blue label i will shove all day long, maybe if i am angry for the money or whatever the reason is

OP: More info would be handy.

 

[PBG789]

Just saw your calcs hutzpaf and you haven't included the antes. With them included UTG+2 is a 24.3% push with the following range according to the ICM Nash Calculator: 22+ A2s+ A8o+ K7s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s 87s

 

[WiZZiM]

Why are we using NASH calculations in a MTT? Whoever brought these calculations up just know that you are training yourself to play really badly, and now you are advising others to play badly too...
this is a clear spot IF we know anything about the original shover and his range, if no info i default to a re-jam.

 

[hutzpaf]

Why are we using NASH calculations in a MTT? Whoever brought these calculations up just know that you are training yourself to play really badly, and now you are advising others to play badly too...
this is a clear spot IF we know anything about the original shover and his range, if no info i default to a re-jam.

Can you tell me what calculator you use? if this is wrong

 

[WiZZiM]

not that one. You would use that more for something like hyper turbo SNGs at mid-high stakes, otherwise ICM calculators in $ev mode which by much better. But if players are super good/don't make mistakes, then nash is what you want to play vs them for the most part.

Use ICMizer and make sure you set it to Chip EV to model this, then make sure to change the villian ranges to see how profitable it can be if his range is tight/loose/moderate etc.

 

[WiZZiM]

I don't really use calculators in these spots anymore though, i simply ask myself if he jams hands like KJ KT QJ etc, if so then i re-jam over, cos we're rarely dominated, we're fine to peel 5 cards vs Ax and pairs and if we dominate parts of his jamming range it becomes really good.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

If you're gonna play the hand then pushing is the way to go.

Personally, I'm letting KQ go here. It's a fine hand to raise with or push with and it's a fine hand to call a raise with when you're deep but I don't like calling shoves with it.

For me, anytime I'm calling a shove my hand has to be significantly stronger to justify having no fold equity. So in this spot I'd probably re-shove with AJ+, 77+. AT would be the question hand for me, and KQ not far behind. That's readless though. If this guy has been very active then maybe you have to go with it.

For example if you're up against A2 KQ only has 42% equity. If you're up against a hand like 76s then KQ has 59% equity which is obviously good but not great. So, like WiZZiM said for me it greatly depends on how often I think I can have him crushed with a hand like KJ, KT, K9. If I think he's often pushing a hand like QJ or K9 then yeah I'll rejam. If I think he's a bit tighter then this is a coinflip at best with no fold equity.

 

[lilu80]

Thanks for the analysis.